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Elite Transformation and Democratic Transition in Macedonia and Slovenia

Židas Daskalovski
p. 5-32


The author explains the distinct democratic transition of Slovenia and Macedonia using Przeworski's theory of democratization. He underlines the differences and similarities between the paths of transition followed by these two former Yugoslavian republics. He also shows the importance of the elite's responses to the status of second Yugoslavia in the frame of this process

Texte intégral

  • 1  See for example Stepan (Alfred), Linz (Juan J.), eds., Problems of Democratic Transition and Conso (...)
  • 2 Higley et. al., op.cit., deal with the topic only passim ; Atilla Agh in his The Politics of Centra (...)

1The process of democratization of the Eastern European countries has been recent focus of attention of a number of political scientists1. Among the various authors writing on the issue of democratic transition in post-communist Europe very few have concentrated on the processes of democratic transition and consolidation in former Yugoslavia2. Out of the few authors who did analyze the question of democratic transformation of the countries that came into existence with the dissolution of the second Yugoslavia, few of them have attempted to correlate this process with inter-republican discussions about the future status of Yugoslavia.

  • 3  See Przeworski (Adam), « Transitions to Democracy », in Democracy and the Market, Cambridge : Camb (...)

2The aim of this paper is to explain the distinct democratic transition of Slovenia and Macedonia using Adam Przeworski’s theory of democratization, and to show the importance of the elite’s responses to the questions and issues raised on federal level concerning the status of second Yugoslavia to the fore-mentioned process3. This paper will underline the importance of elite transformation on the democratization process in Macedonia and Slovenia for two main reasons : first of all, only few studies have delt with these two former Yugoslavian republics, and, secondly, these republics were the most opposite of the former Yugoslavia.

Some Methodological Concepts

  • 4 Ibid., pp. 51-52.
  • 5 Ibid., pp. 88-89.
  • 6 Ibid., pp. 89-90.
  • 7 Ibid., p. 90.

3Przeworski divides the process of democratic transition into two phases. In the first stage, labeled liberalization, authoritarian regimes brake down and democracy appears on the political agenda4. In the second phase, democratization, the new political leadership focuses on the formation of democratic institutions. A new constitution is a result of the negotiations between the representatives of the opposition and the ancien regime. Stability and fairness of the constitution and the other new institutions depends on the power positions of the negotiating parties, and whether these relations are generally known. According to Przeworski, the case when the power relations are not known or are unclear, is best ; then the political authors negotiate more balanced political institutions. These type of institutions are also more prone to last longer and under different circumstances5. Finally, Przeworski, maintains that democracy, after the establishment of democratic institutions, still faces challenges of an unbalanced ratio of political forces within a society. For example, if the opposition stages general strike every time it loses elections or the government adopts unfavorable policy, then the democratic institutions might be weakened, and the military might step in6. A solution to this problem, Przeworski argues, is political pacts, agreements among « leaders of political parties to divide government offices among themselves independent of election results, fix basic policy orientations, and exclude and, if need, be repress outsiders »7.

4Using Przeworski’s theory this paper will show how both Macedonian and Slovenian elites in the debates in post-Tito Yugoslavia promoted and defended their own national interests vis-à-vis the interests of the other Yugoslav republics, and how at the peak of the debates, in the late 1980’s, both agreed to liberalize the political system in order to broaden and legitimize their support in the federal negotiation processes. Confident that they would win multi-party elections in their respective republics, both the Macedonian and the Slovenian communist elites miscalculated the potential strength of the parties and groups which had stronger national agendas than their own. Consequently, the mixed, uninstructed results of the first democratic elections in Macedonia and Slovenia, in opposition for example to those in Serbia and Croatia where one single party came to dominate the presidency and the parliament, together with the international responses to the Yugoslav process of dissolution, would have significant impact on the democratization processes in both countries. Soon after the first free elections, both Macedonian and Slovenian elites would choose a stable new institutional frameworks and form political pacts with the emerging opposition parties, resulting in strengthening of the democratization processes in both republics. However, as Higley and Burton argue, stable democracies do not emerge only by writing constitutions, and founding new institutional frameworks ; the progress is also facilitated by what they term change in status of political elites : from disunified to consensually unified elite types.

  • 8  They have pointed out that the concept of “elite” has been subject of different classifications an (...)
  • 9 Higley (John), Burton (Michael), « The Elite Variable in Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns », A (...)
  • 10 Burton (Michael), Gunther (Richard), Higley (John), « Introduction : Elite Transformation and Democ (...)
  • 11 Burton (Michael), Higley (John), « Elite Settlement », American Sociological Review, 52, 1987, p. 2 (...)

5According to Higley and Burton there are three different kinds of elite types8, consensually unified, ideologically unified, and disunified elites9. Consensual elites are characterized by inclusive structural integration and value consensus10. These types of elites might take opposing policy stances in public, but consistently refrain from extending their disagreements to a point of violent conflict. Disunified elites, on the other hand, are characterized by minimal structural integration and value consensus. Fractions of disunified elites distrust each other, engage in ruthless, often violent conflicts, and do not cooperate to hold back societal divisions or to avoid political crisis11. Ideologically unified elites are typical for authoritarian countries, where structural integration and value consensus are seemingly monolithic. Thus, ideologically unified elites appear to have complete union, publicly support the same policies, and are members of a centralized party or movement.

  • 12 Higley (John), Pakulski (Jan), « Revolution and Elite Transformation in Eastern Europe », Australia (...)
  • 13 Burton (Michael), Higley (John), art.cit., p. 295.
  • 14 Burton (Michael), Gunther (Richard), Higley (John), art.cit., pp. 15-18.
  • 15 Higley (John), Pakulski (Jan), art.cit., p. 114.
  • 16 Ibid., p. 111.

6Consequently, Higley and Burton maintain that the “ideal” kind of elites is the consensually unified type, and that the critical step for a successful democratization includes transformation of disunified elites into consensually unified ones. In post 1989-1990 Eastern Europe there were two main ways in which consensually unified national elites could form : through a direct transformation, or through an elite settlement of basic disputes among elites. A direct transformation can occur if the party elites acknowledge the counter productivity of communist ideology, embrace democracy, and accommodate the emerging new elites12. This transformation is also possible through an elite settlement, « a relatively rare event in which warring national elite factions suddenly and deliberately reorganize their relations by negotiating compromises on their most basic disagreements »13. The settlement occurs through relatively quick negotiations among leaders of major elite factions. These negotiations are conducted by experienced political leaders and result in formal written agreements14. A number of circumstances might foster this trend : an emergence of democratic ethos, a strong pro-Western orientation, pragmatism, new orientations on the part of the former communists elite in favor of economic liberalization and political democracy, and, conflict resolution with cooperation among new and old elites, and thus solidarity sentiments15. Once this elite unity and consensus is reached, stable democracies are feasible, but may also not16.

7Macedonian and Slovenian elites achieved consensus and unity by combination of aspects of both direct transformation to consensual unity and elite settlement. In the late 1980’s both Macedonian and Slovenian elites embraced democracy, thus disregarding old communist ideology. They, both, however, in the aftermath of the 1990 elections, negotiated elite settlements with the new elites. Nonetheless, the different Macedonian and Slovenian elites’ policies and strategic responses before and during the Yugoslav crisis, would have a great impact on the Macedonian and Slovenian paths to democratic consolidation. While the Slovenian elites would be able to concentrate on the issues of democratic restructuring and economic consolidation only, the Macedonian elites would face additional problems of international recognition, economic sanctions, and minority dilemmas.

Yugoslav Debates : 1980-1988

  • 17  On these issues see Ramet (Sabrina), Nationalism and Federalism in Yugoslavia 1962-1991, Bloomingt (...)
  • 18  See Cohen (Lenard), Broken Bonds : Yugoslavia's Disintegration and Balkan Politics in Transition, (...)

8Kardelj’s and Tito’s deaths (in 1979 and 1980) and the growing economic crisis in Yugoslavia in the beginning of the 1980’s largely influenced the reemergence of the issues of liberalization and nationalism, already raised on republican level and suppressed by Tito in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s17. The question of liberalization, both in terms of economic transformation and power legitimization, was intertwined with the issue of republican interests, the status of the Yugoslav state, and thus, regional nationalism18. During 1980’s the regional Yugoslav communist leaders tried to achieve almost impossible goals : to restructure the federation so that it fits different republican interests, to modernize the economy, and, lastly, to (re)legitimize their power authority.

  • 19  See for example, Vejvoda (Ivan), « Yugoslavia 1945-1991 - from Decentralization Without Democracy (...)
  • 20 Ramet (Sabrina), Balkan Babel : Politics, Culture, and Religion in Yugoslavia, Oxford : Westview Pr (...)

9As a result of the events in the late 1960’s and the beginning of the 1970’s, Tito compromised with the dissident voices within the communist party and, in 1974, brought a constitution which de facto decentralized the country and the communist power instrument, the League of Communist of Yugoslavia (LCY)19. Therefore, the 1980’s discussions within the LCY were not debates among federally unified communists but between regional communist party leaders seeking to defend their own republican interests. Although each regional party leadership was fractionated to some extent, in the initial phase of the debate, in the beginning of the 1980’s all of the republican communist elites opted for specific positions ; thus, while the Slovenian and Vojvodinian leaders advocated liberalization and even greater Yugoslav decentralization, the Serbian leaders strongly favored liberal centralization, while the Macedonian, Croatian, and Kosovar parties preferred maintenance of the status quo, i.e., decentralized communist Yugoslavia20.

  • 21 Ibid., p. 13.
  • 22 Ibid., p. 14.

10In search for options how to deal with the crisis, in the beginning of the 1980’s Yugoslav communists began the process of (re)legitimatization of the regime which would eventually lead to the democratization of the country. Different options were proposed in the discussions, ranging from proposals for restoration of the multi-party system, to a “party-less” socialist system operated through citizens’ associations21. Although some propagated even stricter rule of the party, most of the ideas were undoubtedly quite liberal and reform-oriented in character, ranging from calls for establishment of full-fledged “social democracy” to multi-candidate communist elections22.

11Parallel to the liberalization debate, was the discussion on the status of the federation and the value of the 1974 Constitution. Paradoxically, inter-republican discussions over the status of the Yugoslav federation would be the salient cause for the liberalization and the break up of the country. Indeed, the Serbian upsurge of the institutionalized confederate balance of power game would inevitably accelerate the centrifugal processes in Yugoslavia. Serbian’s party leadership insistence on re-centralizing Yugoslavia would tip of the status quo and provoke strong chain of reactions, first among the Slovenian, and later among the other Yugoslav republics party leaders, which in turn would directly lead former Yugoslav communists to embrace more radical options as solutions to the crisis : democratization, and dissolution. Drastic changes in the attitude of the Serbian party leadership toward the status of the Yugoslav federation would come about with the rise to power of Slobodan Milošević, exactly in the midst of the federal level discussions on how to overcome the Yugoslav crisis.

  • 23 Ramet (Sabrina), Nationalism and Federalism (op.cit.), p. 225.
  • 24  See ibid., pp. 228-234. The Serbian republican assembly passed new amendments to the Serbian const (...)
  • 25  See Cohen (Lenard), op.cit., pp. 52-55, and Ramet (Sabrina), Nationalism and Federalism (op.cit.), (...)
  • 26  See Ramet (Sabrina), Nationalism and Federalism (op.cit.), pp. 232-233, and Cohen (Lenard), op.cit (...)

12Until 1987, it seemed conceivable that while the regional elites would ask for further debate on the future status of the federation, Yugoslavia could continue on a path of slow transformation to pluralism and liberalization. However, the rise of S. Milošević who the same year « succeeded in deposing his erstwhile mentor, Ivan Stambolić, and in establishing himself as the unrivaled boss in the republic of Serbia » would significantly change the situation in the country23. Milošević shrewdly materialized on Serbian’s people national sentiments and moved to change Serbia’s “disadvantaged position” within the Yugoslav federation. Using the ideology of the nationalistic wing of the Serbian intellectuals, and populist methods, in the period between 1988 and 1989, Milošević swiftly abolished the autonomous status of the Kosovo and Vojvodina provinces, and installed his own supporters in the Montenegrin party leadership24. By taking control of the Serbian media and establishing “cult of personality” Milošević mobilized the Serbian society in favor of the slogan “strong Serbia, strong Yugoslavia”25. After ing enchng contrević swiftly abolished the autonomoe single pardecepublican inme claopulist methrepublevthrbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Aft 2oblem, NoEntirrocelogic, position”uses on c the sons, dation, pralovenianpublics party leaders, which in tuliberal ce

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  • 23 Ramet (Sabree Ramet punke , (op.fScićeig/li>
  • 18  See Cohe284.
  • 16 Ibid., p.2n), Burton (MichaMastnak (Tomaz945-1991 - from CivilfScanstronexample he Market sioka (Jimart.cvxamtono(Vukaši art atic Transbly T)
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  • 21 Ibid., p.38e Ramet additionalttn18d to chanhum tho emestnegotias>dec),
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  • 21 Ibid., p.3Vej 0
  • 24  See ibid, (.l Na /a>
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  • 21 Ibid., p.41(Sabrina), AmWanding a S)legdY)h on tn oppositionA < 55According to Higley rina)thstrup> C»,rn and Sloconomic sanctioundr motnonegotias>dec,lPENooperry.pvor of ple lovemet additionallnnguageeeyhGreecelnwiti indlevthr eova Min itiojr/a>caan elina)4. In thehough some preho.41(Sdiv>

  • 21 Ibid., p.42(Sabrina), cka (Mirjrm and Federalirom ion inčki, Kslavini i Međd srodni Okoln,sti, koi VlojrcanVrz Efikasn,staloi> 4
  • 135According to Higley r1na) gadin tow uferoct transp Howevetken.)4. In the 4 42ed eveHthe 1990tftencr theocietarcommuni crithods="foottes and , exactl="forty, tionspc sancting from c example, if tppositione class="textandnotes"> dir="ltr" id="heading1">Yugoslav De5ates : 1980-5to singlevm. example Lup of the
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  • 16 Ibid., p.4 (Lenard) 4 Ibid., p.49, pp. 228-234. ng>, op.cit., pp. 52-55, and Ramet (Sa61, 8), Ramet li88
  • 16 Ibid., p.5ina), 5
  • 11 Burton (Mi51(Sabrina), (.9), op.cit (.../a>
  • 5 Burton (Mi5n), Pakulski (JanSekeljit aslo, pp. 52-55, and Ramet li2 Burton (Mi53(Sabrina)135According to Higley r3na) tre lovemet amrvkanologasstLCYransMl" idr 25. Af4 4 46stlso possiing otnortelinad , Miloecallbul- edern oEogi ore aowntmy,ipepdume m. eation pdeboth amrvindil isatas,quickicauloses>lavian ree980’s and fea theUame po of l callandtand i changesuitenscalci B opootnoCitmer issfia, strCath con ChuwitnaMiono 1990lecwascalculata undfferentioatro, aa 19ov datirgenctl in faect translecwascalculataize tnrty elooklaie emestiispwntmy,iibetyfrghe eccessfn ftn ratre l. OtaJunea22ndstrup>, 40 000and movng ne rd Vojfiguforfex smist wer instlikelexample tory. nnd dusonal Ljizejrm nts aLup ofct trSquat frghe eccessfunjthlen ftn rananot pwnhileingven goson ouion inct transts, to modrately re would significelitementog w apc sanctincuin90lecwascalculatchieve almost impoi voiveor ofgotes edia beginndy ancieascalculataize t,e fact,ecicy felogicafgoslrty eit s thtog w amethrepublnses to ta undfferenbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Af4 question of 4 q 47<.lso E nanoYuediat in faect tbec consolid problebioad pvor of ncandidbginning of y lead nwitiization pvor of lic,lizavenslrty e 25. Af4ing 1980’s 4 4egionalCitmunist rty elecye on thsunbabgaoniuubtedly quitee repoibeloation ,ncl fralgoson ontono em nd dusgld facenscalceta undfferentiaSl re ereseaswif9osla dbiaist ugosnir respective republicdeboth ew amendments to thbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Af4refore, the 14re.49, eventhe late 1,slecwascalculatt, A e on throm btedlclosethe S debate,ecwHungturaneen 198ace tiadin evng new n ran elite agrconomicionated ono emhe Mbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Af5 5 5 might Mionsmation otuld faiv e, A ehberrom occuus qubygwaythe pc sanctil in faect traewadcfor the liucture the oommYuedelrty eit cr thenceptbeotetdludes traooniuwicehe Mbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Af5hough some pr5 5ted eveOocereswaytnon lncy aaur conomic catnotecallferen90lecwascalculata undfost imporom "footlsa?"interer movempc sancti Yugoslavnian aewarom ramewa of the federect trbgiire wrbian intemhe Mbodyftn25" href="#ftn25">25. Af5 5 i5n),ght tak ascalculata undfferen and 1989, Milošević swiftly abolishelevel discussionthe federect tr
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  • 21 Ibid., p.111), Pakulski (JanPei y(Dunuliand Federalind vtronohe. 234
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  • 21 Ibid., p.114), Pakulski (JanHigltyb(John),oPakulskio(Jliand Federalirom Revng new RespEereniT, 225According to Higley 54), PakuDuron oth Moroaiss,istatus quovdialouggre trasi aYt grraumeb eliascalcul Responses to slaf tvorisdep enraWhiniath Mascalculatfereniawnd var6p tvor Ybosuithlibaslco aranslecwhe ideolo 25. Af114efore, the 1114p.114),ght takions witdespiat.t abtiadin o,

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