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Frontiers: Authority, Precarity and Insurgency at the Edge of the State

Frontières : autorité, précarité et insurrection aux limites de l'État
Michael J Watts

Résumés

Deux mouvements insurrectionnels ont émergé au Nigeria depuis le rétablissement du pouvoir civil en 1999 : Boko Haram dans le nord-est musulman et le Mouvement pour l'émancipation du delta du Niger (MEND) dans le sud-est producteur d’hydrocarbures et chrétien. Je soutiens l'idée que ces deux mouvements se sont formés à partir d'espaces frontaliers dans lesquels les limites de l'autorité et de la légitimité de l'État se croisent avec, d’une part, une profonde crise d'autorité et, d’autre part, une forte précarité économique. Boko Haram et le MEND partagent certaines ressemblances – ils sont les produits du même pouvoir central – malgré le fait évident que l'un se revendique d’une religion et demande de manière insistante une restauration d’un véritable État islamique au Nigeria, tandis que l'autre, laïque et civique, souhaite élargir les limites de la citoyenneté dans le cadre d’un nouveau type de fédéralisme.

Il existe des points communs importants dans la composition sociale de ces groupes armés et dans leurs dynamiques internes. Chacun se plaint de l'échec des autorités locales, des institutions coutumières et des forces de sécurité (la police et les forces spéciales en particulier). Cependant, chacun est spécifiquement situé ; son articulation culturelle avec la politique de dépossession enracinée dans des traditions guerrières régionales, des systèmes particuliers de religiosité, différentes formes de structures sociales et d'identité, ainsi que des environnements écologiques différents (les savanes semi-arides au nord et les bras et forêts du delta du Niger au sud). Dans les deux cas, la coercition et le despotisme de l'État ainsi que la décrépitude éthico-morale des personnes dépositaires de l'État jouent un rôle central, de même que la politique de ressentiment que chaque problème génère parmi des classes précaires nombreuses et aliénées, mais géographiquement enracinées.

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Texte intégral

Capitalism . . . is a frontier process (Jason Moore, 2015, p.107)

1Since its return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria has produced two home-grown insurgencies. A Salafist rebellion, originating in the northeast of the country and gaining prominence and momentum after 2003, has laid waste a vast swath of territory in the three states of Bornu, Yobe, and Adamawa, and launched massive and deadly attacks across the north in major cities such as Maiduguri, Kano, and Katsina. Between 2011 and 2014, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, 20,000 people were killed by Boko Haram militants (with another 6000 mortalities in 270 attacks during 2015).Large-scale abductions, female suicide bombers, assassinations, beheadings, and the brutal terrorizing of civilian communities have become the tools of their trade.By April 2015, 2.5 million people had been displacedacross six northeastern states (http://www.internal-displacement.org/​sub-saharan-africa/​nigeria/​figures-analysis); over 1 million were barracked in refugee camps in and around Maiduguri.New estimates by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs suggest that 4.4 million people in the Lake Chad region of northeastern Nigeria are in need of urgent food aid. Countless hundreds of thousands are confronting the bitter reality of starvation and famine.

  • 1 Between mid-February and mid-June 2016, the NDA claimed responsibility for fourteen attacks on pipe (...)

2One thousand kilometers to the south, on the Niger delta oilfields, an armed non-state group – the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) –emerged from the western creeks in late 2005 and within four years brought the oil industry, accounting for over 80% of government revenues, to its knees. According to a report released in late 2008 prepared by a 43-person government commission and entitled The Report of the Technical Committee of the Niger Delta (RTCND) in the first nine months of 2008 alone the Nigerian government lost a staggering $23.7 billion in oil revenues to militant attacks and sabotage. By May 2009 oil production had fallen by over a million barrels per day, a decline of roughly 40% from the average national output five years earlier. At least 300 individuals were abducted between 2006 and 2009, 300 armed assaults were launched between 2007 and 2010, and 13,000 pipeline attacks and vandalizations were reported between 2006 and 2011. By some estimates, mortalities ran to 1500 per year and perhaps as many as 200,000 people were internally displaced.A government amnesty, signed in October 2009 in the wake of a state-sponsored counter-insurgency program, brought peace to the delta by 2010.But it proved to be fragile, punctuated by periodic bouts of violence between 2010 and 2015.Ominously, in early 2016 a new militant group – the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA)1 – occupied the space vacated by MEND.By May 2016,NDA’s ‘Operation Red Economy’ had shut-in over 800,000 barrels of oil (producing a thirty-year low in output).Clearly both insurgencies represent a major crisis of legitimacy for the Nigerian post-colonial state, a fact stunningly underscored by the combatants’ capability to strike at the heart of government power by launching devastating attacks in 2010 and 2011 in the very center of the country’s high-modernist capital, Abuja.

3At first glance the insurgencies are a study in sharp contrasts. One is draped in the language of a return to a republic of virtue and the ideals of dar al-Islam, of ‘true Islam’ and the restoration of the Caliphate; the other is secular and self-consciously modern, invoking a renovated civic nationalism, a new federalism, community rights, and ‘resource control’. One is located in a remote, semi-arid, and drought-prone border region marked by agrarian recession and the collapse of its traditional industrial base (textiles); the other is housed in a huge deltaic zone of swamp rainforests and riverine creeks awash in federal oil revenues and populated by some of the largest transnational corporations in the world. Not least, the two regions exhibit, in general terms at least, quite different poverty profiles: in aggregate terms the northeast is the poorest region in the federation (it has the highest multi-dimensional poverty in the federation and a poverty incidence of 86% [see Lewis and Watts 2015]); the South-South (the nine delta states) posts a poverty rate of 34% and significantly higher human development indices. Along many axes of comparison – ecology, ethnic composition, forms of livelihood, political histories, and cultural formations – Boko Haram and MEND suggest little in the way of family resemblance.

4On the other hand,they share a number of paradoxical qualities. Each was the offspring of the return to democratic rule and the birth of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in 1999 (Pierce 2016; Kendhammer 2016). Both insurgencies surfaced at a moment in history when each region might plausibly claim to have achieved what one could call political victories – both in relation to other regions in the federation and with respect to a powerful federal center.In the north, sharia law had been adopted across the twelve northern states in 2000, and the overwhelming victory in 1999 by a powerful and dominant party machine, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), reaffirmednorthern hegemony in national politics.In the delta, the dark picture of economic and political marginalization painted by the leader of the Ogoni struggle, Ken Saro-Wiwa, in the first half of the 1990s had brightened, at least in fiscal terms. A raft of powerful new youth movements had arisen among the so-called ethnic ‘oil minorities’, propelling a radical change in 1999 in the principles by which state oil revenues were allocated within the system of fiscal federalism. The so-called derivation principle, by which states within the federation retain a proportion of the income of resources located within their jurisdictions – injected a huge quantum of petro-revenues into the oil-producing states, and contributed tothe ascension of a powerful and nationally influential class of regional political ‘godfathers’. How, then, can we account for the somewhat paradoxical emergence of two apparently dissimilar insurgencies under these sets of conditions?

  • 2 See Porter and Watts (2017), where we discuss at length the idea of ‘asymmetrical state capabilitie (...)
  • 3 Frontiers in this sense are part of a wider literature on territory, identity, and politics (see Mo (...)

5Despite their surface differences and their counter-intuitive emergence, the two insurgencies were shaped by a common set of structural forces – a set of conditions of possibility – which have arisen from the political settlements and the ordering of power (Slater 2011) associated with the dominance of oil and gas in Nigeria’s political economy. In particular, the ordering of power within Nigeria’s petro-state engendered particular sorts of spaces – frontiers – that can only be understood in relationship to the changing capabilities of the state, on the one hand,2 and a crisis of social reproduction of youth marked by the decay of systems of authority on the other.I seek to given analytical priority to a trio of forces that constitute the insurgencies’ conditions of possibility: space, the state, and systems of authority.3 MEND and Boko Haram were forged in the different frontier spaces of the northeast and southeast of the country, each constituted in its specificity by unique economic, cultural, and ecological conditions yet sharing common properties in regard to state capacity, the deepening illegitimacy of forms of political, civic, and religious authority, and the radical precariousness experienced by what Joe Trapido, (2015:31) in describing the Congo, has called a class of young, masterless men.

6The frontier for my purposes is understood as a form of social space (Lefebvre 1991) and stands in sharp contrast to the manner in which the term was deployed by George Frederick Turner (1893) in his famous account of the opening and closing of the American frontier.For Turner the frontier was defined by its remoteness, the defining qualities of which are abundant land, under-exploited resources,and gradual settlement by commercially oriented settlers and state authorities expanding their territorial jurisdiction. His account both underplays the importance and dynamics of the accumulation process – its violence and disorder – andhas little of substance to say about how frontiers relate to state power. Rather, in frontier spaces what is and is not legitimate authority, and who authorizes such legitimate power, is often an open question and an object of deep contention. The disorderly and often violent forms of rule associated with unreliable and partisan legal orders, unaccountable forms of state governance, and ineffective forms of public authority, typically coexist with the questionable legitimacy of most other forms of authority – civic, customary, corporate, religious (Lund 2006). As Markoff (2006:78) puts it, ‘ fronti;eK7), whtJit provelatios, anpacess, anresumeofton prsis oftits hctionge authorti;ef farfining qunce anhe ophao andp clices. guife,nsu/span>See Ir and Wt one he idea of ‘asymmetrical state ogodfIne shapplex a powerfwithin llitylamique ahip to thymmetrical state o unrel>otherotherotherother

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Notes

1 Between mid-February and mid-June 2016, the NDA claimed responsibility for fourteen attacks on pipelines and other infrastructure; at least one other militant group – Niger Delta Greenland Justice Mandate (NDGJM) – has emerged over the last six months. By early 2017 oil production was, as a result of the attacks, at its lowest in 30 years.

2 See Porter and Watts (2017), where we discuss at length the idea of ‘asymmetrical state capabilities’ of Nigeria in the oil period.

3 Frontiers in this sense are part of a wider literature on territory, identity, and politics (see Moore 2005; Peluso and Vandergeest 1995; Lund and Peluso 2011; Lund 2011).

4 For an excellent linguistic and etymological analysis see Febvre (1973).

5 The work on frontiers is vast;fora sampling of more recent work see Anderson (1997), Rosler and Wendell (2000), Agier (2016); Van Wolputt (2013); Ferguson and Raffestin (1986), Goodhand (2005), Hogan (1985), Geiger (2008); Chalfin (2010) Reeves (2014); Korf and Raemaekers (2013), Eilenberg (2014), Balve (2015).

6 Lefebvre sees the modern state as in the business of producing and shaping, through forms of planning associated with what he calls the state mode of production, multiple and overlapping forms of social space.He does not refer to the frontier as such and is largely concerned with how “the State engenders social relations in space; it reaches still further as it unfurls; it produces a support, its own space, whtier aducing an, (20sssocieg="en. Tre par adillguspar infrasr Geizt, itleninte tf sonpace; does nothe ngenheder literithse Md tf soderldaturoes not(lriaees noteardns )” (es the mociat ht rBrennell (20Eld pso a9:358p>

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