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Shifts in the Brussels-Capital Region electorate between the June 2009 regional elections and the 13 June 2010 federal elections

Press release

Notes de la rédaction

This is the press release related to the article from Pascal Delwit, Marjorie Gassner, Jean-Benoit Pilet and Emilie Van Haute, published September the 6th, 2010. Read the article.

en

The 13 June federal elections had a deep impact on the national political scene. Although the changes were less pronounced in Brussels, they were not less significant.

To give an account of the situation, Pascal Delwit, Marjorie Gassner, Jean-Benoit Pilet and Emilie Van Haute (ULB – CEVIPOL) organised an exit poll. The questions were centred on the votes cast on 13 June and on those cast during the June 2009 regional elections. In the 41st issue of Brussels Studies, these researchers analyse the shifts in the electorate between parties.

We thus learn that all of the parties lost voters to other parties – even those which won the elections. The shifts therefore did not simply entail leaving the losers to join the winners, but were much more complex, involving a vast exchange of voters.

A second piece of information provided by the study is that certain parties have a disloyal electorate. Ecolo and the cdH thus lost almost half of their voters from 2009 to other parties. The CD&V lost more than half, but benefited from the arrival of almost as many from other parties. Stability in terms of results therefore does not indicate a stable electorate.

Furthermore, the changing electorates tend to shift in a coherent manner with respect to political divisions. Thus, the Flemish left-wing parties lost very few voters to the grand winner, i.e. the N-VA, contrary to the centre-right or far-right parties.

Finally, the electorates do not appear to be monolithic. They are made up of various segments which react in different ways and which may be drawn to different points of view. Thus, Ecolo, for example, lost part of its electorate to the benefit of left-wing parties – PS and PTB+ – as well as to the benefit of right-wing parties – MR and PP.

What emerges from this article is a complex image of the political landscape in Brussels, prompting us to consider the shifts in the electorate in a new light.

References
Delwit, Pascal, Gassner, Marjorie Pilet, Jean-Benoit and Van Haute Emilie, “Shifts in the Brussels-Capital Region electorate between the June 2009 regional elections and the 13 June 2010 federal elections”, Brussels Studies [Online], General collection, No 41, 6 september 2010. URL: https://journals.openedition.org/brussels/798
Contact
Benjamin Wayens, Senior Editor: bwayens[at]brusselsstudies.be

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