The population of Brussels : a demographic overview Synopsis , CFB No . 3 La population bruxelloise : un éclairage démographique

The Brussels-Capital Region is comprised of 19 municipalities and has a surface area of 161.4 km². The region is the core of a much broader morphological agglomeration made up of 36 municipalities with a total population of more than one and a half million inhabitants. The official population of the Brussels-Capital Region totalled 1 048 491 inhabitants on 1st January 2008 and is the youngest in the country with an average age of 37.8 years recorded in 2006. The demographic development of Brussels has always been strongly dominated by migration over the past one and half centuries and this is not different today. The capital city has experienced a rise in population over the past few years and, just like all large European cities, the population composition is highly influenced by internationalisation. The last census (socio-economic survey of 2001) enabled the nationality of origin to be taken into account. According to this criterion, Brussels had 45 different nationalities with at least 1 000 inhabitants. The composition has diversified further since then and there has been an increase in inhabitants from European Union countries. The region is characterised by a clear spatial differentiation between the poorer districts, mixed neighbourhoods and the affluent areas of the city. The underlying structure of this spatial segregation according to socio-economic status has deep-seated historical roots and a high level of inertia. However, the arrival of new inhabitants, large construction sites within a number of districts, speculation and increasing property prices are slowly changing the composition of the population within some districts. A short description of the most important demographic trends that will affect the composition of the city in the coming decades is given below.

The Brussels-Capital Region is comprised of 19 municipalities and has a surface area of 161.4 km2.The region is the core of a much broader morphological agglomeration made up of 36 municipalities with a total population of more than one and a half million inhabitants.The official population of the Brussels-Capital Region totalled 1,048,491 inhabitants on 1st January 2008 and is the youngest in the country with an average age of 37.8 years recorded in 2006.The demographic development of Brussels has always been strongly dominated by migration over the past one and half centuries and this is not different today.The capital city has experienced a rise in population over the past few years and, just like all large European cities, the population composition is highly influenced by internationalisation.The last census (socio-economic survey of 2001) enabled the nationality of origin to be taken into account.According to this criterion, Brussels had 45 different nationalities with at least 1,000 inhabitants.The composition has diversified further since then and there has been an increase in inhabitants from European Union countries.The region is characterised by a clear spatial differentiation between the poorer districts, mixed neighbourhoods and the affluent areas of the city.The underlying structure of this spatial segregation according to socio-economic status has deep-seated historical roots and a high level of inertia.However, the arrival of new inhabitants, large construction sites within a number of districts, speculation and increasing property prices are slowly changing the composition of the population within some districts.A short description of the most important demographic trends that will affect the composition of the city in the coming decades is given below.

Brussels: a city of immigrants
Brussels is a typical city of immigrants; people who were born outside Brussels and who, at a certain time in their lives, came to live in Brussels.In 1991, 50.8% of Brussels inhabitants were born in Brussels.Restricting ourselves to Brussels inhabitants aged 18 and over, this figure becomes 42.5%.In 2001, the share of Brussels inhabitants actually born in Brussels decreased slightly to 49.8% and 40.3% respectively, under the influence of recent higher immigration figures.The majority of Brussels inhabitants who were born outside the region come from abroad.In 2001, 31.7% of Brussels inhabitants were born abroad, 8.4% in Flanders and 10.1% in Wallonia.

Brussels: the most important gateway for international migration
Migration constitutes the most important demographic factor in the population composition of the Brussels region.Although a natural increase in the population has been the most important factor in population growth since 2003, migration flows continue to be the largest influence on the region's composition.Each year, the region loses part of its population through internal migration, but experiences population growth due to international migration.Approximately one third of the population exchange between Belgium and other countries occurs through Brussels.The balance of international migration (the difference between inflow and outflow from and to other countries) was distributed across the regions in 2006 as follows: 17,588 people for Brussels, 21,546 for Flanders and 10,402 for Wallonia.

Brussels: an important factor in the internal migration flows within Belgium
Due to continuous international inflow, Brussels makes an important contribution to the dynamic of internal migrations within Belgium.For decades, Brussels has experienced a negative net domestic migration balance.More inhabitants leave the capital city for the rest of the country than the number moving to Brussels from Flanders and Wallonia.As this mainly involves families with young children, this outflow contributes to the population growth and rejuvenation of the population in Flanders and Wallonia.Having remained relatively low from the middle of the 1990s onwards, this negative balance has once again risen above 10,000 people for a number of years.

The migration flows lead to a permanent rejuvenation of the adult population within the city
Net migration only provides the balance of very extensive annual movements.For example, the negative domestic migration balance is the final result of nearly 60,000 annual movements between Brussels and the rest of Belgium.

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The inflow predominantly consists of young people who are often single and who will mostly rent accommodation.The outflow is dominated by slightly older age groups (see graph 1).More often than not, this involves households with children; which is shown on the graph in negative migration balances above 30 years and under 15 years.The limited availability of affordable (and relatively comfortable) private housing is the most important motivation for moving out of the capital city.Within the Brussels-Capital Region, the relocation intensity also differs substantially according to the district (see map 1).
The areas with the highest levels of residential mobility fall within the pentagon and the adjacent districts in the south-eastern quadrant, in the European district and in the direction of the university campuses.The important migration flows between Brussels and the outside world do not impede the fact that more than half the population remain living relatively stable in the Brussels region.Geographical patterns show that this is partly the population that has sufficient purchasing power to buy a decent home in a pleasant residential area.However, there is also relatively low relocation intensity in Molenbeek, Schaarbeek/Schaerbeek and Sint-Joost-ten-  The age structure of the (internal and international) migrants has an important impact on the age structure of the Brussels population.Brussels is the only region in which a relative rejuvenation of the population (slight increase in the share of those younger than 20 years and decrease in the share of those aged 60 and above) has been established.In 1991, the Brussels region was still the oldest region, whilst today it is the youngest, having therefore undergone a radical reversal over the course of the past 15 years.Large differences have been established between the various municipalities or districts within the region, such that the Brussels region today encompasses both the youngest municipality (Sint-Joost-ten-Node/Saint-Josse-ten-Noode) as well as one of the oldest municipalities (Ganshoren) in Belgium.

Suburbanisation: 50 years of migration across and beyond the region's borders
Just as in all large urban agglomerations, the 1950s saw the start of suburbanisation in Brussels.This outflow soon extended increasingly beyond the 19 Brussels municipalities and population growth in Brussels came to an end in the middle of the 1960s.The population in the urban agglomeration continued to grow, but from 1965 onwards, this growth took place outside the Brussels region.The international migration was not able to compensate for the internal emigration.As the death rate was also higher than the birth rate, the Brussels region experienced a slow yet persistent population decline.Until 1998, the registered outflow surpassed the total inflow.The region's borders, which were established along linguistic lines, took no account of the demographic and economic reality.The establishment of the region's borders automatically turned the urban exodus into relocation away from Brussels.Such residential relocation increasingly took place further from the capital city, with the price of living (affordable rent or affordable private housing) forcing many young families beyond the region's borders.For those working in Brussels, the daily commute was the trade-off that they had to accept for affordable housing.

Strong population growth
Population decline came to an end in the Brussels-Capital Region from 1995 onwards.International immigration kept pace with the internal outflow and has even surpassed this on several occasions.However, there is also an important new phenomenon that has emerged in that Brussels has been experiencing natural growth since 1985 (see graph 2).
The absolute number of deaths has been falling for a number of years because of the declining share of elderly people within the population.Today's oldest generations were the pioneers of suburbanisation.A smaller share of elderly people together with a slightly increased life expectancy has led to a declining number of deaths.The population's young age structure also ensures an increasing number of births.The combination of a slightly higher fertility rate among international migrants and a young age structure generates an increasing number of births, year after year.
In 1995, the size of the Brussels population reached its lowest level since the Second World War.Since then, the steady progression of natural growth combined with a positive migration balance has ensured strong population growth.According to the population register, the population exceeded the one million mark in 2005.On 1st January 2008, the population stood at 1,048,491 inhabitants.By adding the population that is not officially calculated in the population figure (such as asylum Brussels Studies the e-journal for academic research on Brussels 5 seekers awaiting a judgement who are included in the waiting register), the population of Brussels would undoubtedly exceed the historical maximum of 1968 (1,079,181).

A large number of children grow up in poverty
An important change in recent population growth rests in the fact that parents with young children tend to remain living in the city.
Nevertheless, this is not because the city has become more child-friendly.For some households, city life is probably a conscious choice.However, the most important reason is that an increasing number of children are being born to less affluent families for whom suburbanisation to better and more affordable housing is not always possible.This is why the bases of recent Brussels population pyramids are becoming increasingly wider.When the births are broken down per municipality, the strongest growth occurs in the poorer municipalities within the first crown (see table 1).Today, the region's youngest population lives in these districts with the largest proportion of young children (see map 2).Analysis of birth certificates shows that

Growing diversity
The composition of the Brussels population is becoming increasingly diverse, but the share of inhabitants that have the Belgian nationality has remained relatively constant over the past few years due to the numerous changes in nationality (see Questions -issues

Erosion of incomes
The migration patterns and especially suburbanisation have led to the more affluent double income families leaving the city, which in itself has caused a constant decrease in the average income per inhabitant of Brussels compared with the average income in Belgium (see table 5).Many companies have also established themselves in new industrial estates outside the Brussels-Capital Region, resulting in a sustained (relative) decrease in the incomes of the municipalities and the Brussels-Capital Region.This goes against the requirement to meet the increasingly greater needs of the urban population and the necessity to pursue an investment policy that makes living in the city appealing once again.The erosion of incomes makes it more difficult to pursue an active policy that meets housing needs.Nevertheless, an investment policy that ensures an appealing living environment whilst at the same time also guaranteeing the right to housing for the less affluent population is essential for a policy in which sustainable development is a priority.

2.Socio-economic spatial residential pattern
The Brussels-Capital Region displays a clearly defined socioeconomic spatial residential pattern (see map 3).This pattern has barely evolved over the course of time and has determined the settlement patterns of newcomers to the capital city for a number of decades.As well as the traditional working-class districts along the canal, a poorer population of immigrants has concentrated in the 19th century belt of municipalities in the first crown.The classical effect of chain migration has led to the development of relatively concentrated cores of immigrant communities.The socioeconomic and cultural geographical patterns have produced invisible boundaries between communities living next to each other with little interaction.In day-to-day life, certain sections of the Brussels popu- lation barely come in contact with each other.This de facto segregation is a challenge for the city's liveability in the long term and presents a particular problem for the fully-fledged development of young people who grow up in the poorer districts.Nevertheless, there are neighbourhoods where people with very diverse socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds live together.

Increasing population pressure
The population projections for Brussels predict that if the present demographic trends continue, the 19 Brussels municipalities will have approximately 1 million 300,000 inhabitants by the middle of this century (see table 3).These projections do not take account of possibilities for growth in housing or for the consequences of increasing demographic pressure on the cost of housing.Nonetheless, it is very clear that such a demographic evolution will present the Brussels-Capital Region with an important challenge.

Finding an answer to growing polarisation
The socio-economic divide between the Brussels agglomeration and its suburban (or peri-urban) periphery is becoming greater; especially through socially-selective internal emigration (the access to the suburban area is increasingly restricted to the more affluent section of the population).This socio-economic polarisation overlaps with the complementarity of the spatial area in demographic terms in the lifecycle of individuals and households.The city offers advantages to young people and the existing organisation of the peri-urban area meets the expectations of those in the 30 to 45 year olds and their children.In spite of its problems, the city plays a social role that the peripheral area is increasingly less able to guarantee due to the type of housing provision (little or no social housing, limited and shrinking rental accommodation since the 1980s).We can obviously try to intervene by making changes to the housing provision.In the meantime, the city fulfils an important social function.
The cost of this has to be carried fairly, also by the periphery that is not able to guarantee this function.
The present housing market is also causing pernicious evolutions within the region.Despite the intensity of the migration and the comparatively larger provision of rental accommodation than in the rest of the country, the present housing market in no way guarantees an optimal allocation of housing to households.Overcrowding, under-utilisation and housing that does not meet the housing code are all commonplace.Under pressure from continuous population growth, the new build sector is not able to bridge the gap.As a result, it is especially the socio-economically weaker population that are hard pressed on the property market, mainly because of the poor share of the social housing sector.Furthermore, the will to keep or bring back the middle-classes to the city (which goes against the present trend) could actually compound this pressure.
A number of contradictions therefore emerge that need to be resolved.Will the region be able to combine the inflow of international executive staff, the will to keep the middle-classes in the city and the integration and care of the socially weak population groups?Is an increased densification of the population feasible?Are there any alternative paths that can be trodden?
Brussels Studies the e-journal for academic research on Brussels 10

III. Policy options
The demographic evolution of the Brussels-Capital Region presents a great challenge to the future of our country.With the right policy measures, the demographic evolution of Brussels can make a positive contribution.Brussels not only contributes to a rejuvenation of the population, it also remains an economic engine for the country because of the role that it plays in population growth.Brussels continuously attracts young people with an enormous potential for talent and new ideas.The presence of international and European institutions together with international migration also contributes to its dynamic character.Brussels is an interesting city with much cultural charisma at the edge of French and Dutch culture and open to the whole world.
However, Brussels also requires a future-oriented project in order to make it a liveable city for the 21st century.Brussels needs to be a pleasant place to live, in all respects.The demographic evolution calls for special attention to be paid to development within the disadvantaged districts and especially to the situation of young people and children who live in these districts.There is a need for an integrated policy plan that focuses on the many facets of education, employment, housing, the living environment, health etc.The geographical embedding of the disadvantaged districts in Brussels gives, in contrast to the situation in some other countries, enormous possibilities for addressing social segregation and to turn this city into a liveable city for everyone.
The projections for population growth in Brussels are not based on the future development of the housing provision, but on the present dynamic of the various components of population growth.It is not self-evident that the region has the financial capacity for the expected population increase.In any case, the tension between the expected population growth and the existing housing provision presents clear challenges in terms of densification and socio-spatial reordering.Which scenarios need to be followed for an endurable and sustainable living environment?How are we going to deal with the limited space?Are high-rise buildings and the conversion of existing buildings (industrial premises, office spaces) options for the future?What influence will all this have on mobility within the city and the retention of sufficient green space and a child-friendly city environment?
Brussels has a particularly important role in the integration process of young people on the employment market because of the position that the region plays in agerelated migration flows and also because of the range of higher education that it offers.Brussels must manage the critical transitional phase to the employment market even more than in the rest of the country, which is why it is so important to invest in young people.This requires a global approach across all age groups; an approach that combines diverse means: education and training, eliminating all forms of inequality, but also paying attention to the expansion of the infrastructure (for example, would a day nursery add to the well-being and easier integration of young parents in the employment market?).Watermael-Boitsfort -8,9 1,6 -6,5 2,0 2,8 0,0 0,4 0,3 0,2 2,3 1,6 2,0 Woluwe-Saint-Lambert -14,4 -6,7 -11,2 2,0 2,3 4,9 0,0 0,2 0,4 3,6 1,4 7,0 Woluwe-Saint-Pierre -12,5 -6,1 -5,5 2,3 1,7 2,4 0,1 0,3 0,4 1,2 2,7 6,2 Migration according to age: Brussels-Capital Region 2005 Source: National Register, ADSEI, courtesy of Interface Demography Node/Saint-Josse-ten-Noode, possibly as a result of the relative immobility within which the less affluent population groups find themselves.Map 1. Geographical mobility indicator 1/10/1996 -1/10/2001 5. Brussels: a centre of attraction for young adults The age structure of the immigration shows that mainly young people come to live in the capital city.The educational position of Brussels obviously plays an important role in this as many stay living in Brussels after graduating.Young employees, especially at an age when they do not yet have children, constitute another important group who come to live in the capital city in close proximity to their work.The international migration is also mainly young.Both the migration of EU citizens as well as non-EU citizens has a predominantly young age structure.The result is an overrepresentation of young adults in Brussels compared to the rest of the country.Brussels Studies the e-journal for academic research on Brussels 4 statistical adjustmen and change of register total population growth Graph 2. Factors in the recent evolution within the population of Brussels Source: National Register, ADSEI, courtesy of Interface Demography approximately 28% of children are born into households where parents do not have income from employment, in the Brussels-Capital Region.Brussels Studies the e-journal for academic research on Brussels 7 P. Deboosere, T. Eggerickx, E. Van Hecke, B. Wayens, "Citizens' forum of Brussel.The population of Brussels: a demographic overview ", Brussels Studies, Synopsis nr. 3, 12 january 2009 (corr.17 March 2009).Map 2. Share of children (0-4 years) within the total population: Brussels-Capital Region (2001) Cartography: VUB -Interface Demography.
In 2005, no less than 21,351 people settled in Brussels from Flanders and Wallonia.The outflow for the same year amounted to 33,798 people, resulting in a negative domestic migration balance of 12,447 people.It is important to note that this exchange with Flanders and Wallonia is not neutral in terms of age and household status. 1

table 2 )
. Since 1st January 1989, there have been more than 200,000 changes in nationality in Brussels, leading to more children being born as Belgians.The share of the Belgian population below the age of 18 is larger than the age groups that belong to the active population.Therefore, nationality is no longer a reliable indicator of the extensive diversity in origin and cultural background of the Brussels population.Taking nationality at birth into account, 46% of the Brussels population is not of Belgian origin.Adding the children that are born as Belgians to parents who migrated, means that more than 50% of the Brussels population comes from abroad or is born to parents who migrated.The population with Moroccan origin forms the most important group in this respect, amounting to almost 13% of the Brussels population in 2001.Over the past few years, the diversity of the country of origin has increased (see table 4), with migrants increasingly coming from East European countries (with Poland and Bulgaria leading) or Sub-Saharan Africa.

Table 4 .
Average annual migration balance per 1000 inhabitants according to nationality: 1988-2005 Source: National Register, ADSEI, courtesy of Interface Demography Erratum: data for Ixelles have been corrected on 20 january 2009.