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Special feature

What is Driving the US and China to Compete – and Potentially Fight – Over Taiwan: A Neo-offensive Realist Analysis

Brian C. H. Fong
p. 7-17

Abstract

Great power competition has long been theorised by international relations scholars as a contest for supremacy across multiple domains. But where do great powers compete? What makes a place a critical domain of great power competition? What motivates great powers to compete – and potentially fight – over one domain but not others? This article uses an emerging theory called “neo-offensive realism” to examine how conflicting national interests are currently driving the US and China to intensely compete and potentially fight over Taiwan. By empirically surveying the defence, economic, ideological, and world-order interests of the US and China over Taiwan, this article develops a theoretical framework for mapping the different national interests that structure great power competition over states and quasi-states. The neo-offensive realist analysis of US–China rivalry in Taiwan provides important theoretical and practical insights for the international community.

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Editor’s notes

Manuscript received on 12 April 2025. Accepted on 4 January 2026.

Excerpt

Full text document will be published online on June 2027.

Outline

Theoretical framework: Theorising where great powers compete
The status of existing literature
Neo-offensive realism as an emerging theory
Case application: The US and China’s conflicting interests in Taiwan
Conflicting defence interests
Conflicting economic/defence interests
Conflicting ideological interests
Conflicting world-order interests
A critical domain that cannot be lost to the other side
Lessons from the case: Theoretical and practical insights

First lines

Where do great powers compete? What makes a place a critical domain of great power competition? What motivates great powers to compete – and potentially fight – over one domain but not others? Interestingly, such critical research questions, which pertain to the trajectory of global politics, have thus far remained under-discussed within international relations scholarship. Applying an emerging theory called “neo-offensive realism,” this article advances the literature by investigating the causal impact of conflicting national interests in driving US–China competition and potential war over Taiwan.

I aim to achieve a three-fold objective in this article: first, to introduce the neo-offensive realism theory, which provides a general theoretical framework for explaining and predicting where great power competition is going to emerge in a particular domain; second, to empirically test and apply neo-offensive realism in the context of Taiwan under the contemporary US–China competition; a...

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References

Bibliographical reference

Brian C. H. Fong, “What is Driving the US and China to Compete – and Potentially Fight – Over Taiwan: A Neo-offensive Realist Analysis”, China Perspectives, 145 | 2026, 7-17.

Electronic reference

Brian C. H. Fong, “What is Driving the US and China to Compete – and Potentially Fight – Over Taiwan: A Neo-offensive Realist Analysis”, China Perspectives [Online], 145 | 2026, Online since 01 June 2027, connection on 13 July 2026. URL: http://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/20969; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/16hk7

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About the author

Brian C. H. Fong

Brian C. H. Fong is Distinguished Professor and Associate Dean of the College of Social Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (brian.fong@mail.nsysu.edu.tw).

By this author

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Copyright

CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

The text only may be used under licence CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. All other elements (illustrations, imported files) may be subject to specific use terms.

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