Introduction

3But what do these experiences tell us about how Xi thinks about the world? The intention here is not to provide a simple biography. Nor is it to engage in a psychoanalytic, Freudian approach as other researchers of leaders have done (Pye 1976; George and George 1964). Instead, I categorise and examine Xi’s early experiences, both before and after the Cultural Revolution started, based on how they might have affected his character traits in specific ways. I then ask whether Xi’s later behaviour fits our understanding of what we would expect someone with such a background to learn.

4The source material is not perfect. However, the issue is relevant enough, and the evidence available today interesting enough, to provide an interim account that, unlike previous scholarship, gives a focused account entirely on Xi’s early life. Some of the more problematic sources, such as Xi’s own numerous autobiographical statements and accounts of varying quality provided by friends and family, should be treated sceptically, as they fit a narrative of political legitimacy (Brown 2016: 50). However, they can be mined for biographical details, and some of the claims can be treated as possibilities. Crucially, these sources can be heavily supplemented by: memoir literature written by individuals who had life experiences similar to Xi’s; reporting by Western journalists; and high‑quality Chinese and Western secondary literature on what we know about Xi’s generation more broadly.

5A generally coherent picture emerges from this evidence. Xi’s early life does help explain his toughness, idealism, pragmatism, and caution. However, the material is less clear on how Xi’s youth might have affected his later behaviour towards potential enemies, both inside and outside the Party.

Personal experiences and characteristics

6Why do we care about Xi Jinping? Despite the significance many political scientists give to structural factors, they have also studied the importance of individual leaders (Jones and Olken 2009; Byman and Pollack 2001; Mahoney and Snyder 1999). Leaders matter for two reasons. First, as Richard Samuels has argued, people in positions of high authority often have significant freedom of manoeuvre (Samuels 2005). Second, leaders matter because they have their own ideas about how the world works (George 1969). One of the key ways in which leaders develop such ideas is through previous experiences (Kennedy 2012; Jervis 1976). Political scientists have also helped conceptualise what kinds of leadership traits are the most interesting (House and Baetz 1990; Hermann 1980).

7The evidence is strong that Xi Jinping’s youth had a role in developing four key traits that I have gleaned in drawing on my sources. The first is toughness, meaning self-confidence and a belief in personal efficacy. The second is idealism, defined as conviction, a sense of mission, and antipathy towards materialism. The third is pragmatism, as in flexibility when selecting means to achieve concrete goals. The fourth is cautiousness, which includes political prudence, self-discipline, and the careful avoidance of demonstrating any dangerous ambitions (because this last trait disappeared when Xi ascended to the top position, it will receive less attention). The evidence on a potential fifth characteristic—how Xi views the nature of political threats— is more ambiguous. Some material does suggest that Xi has an exclusionary policy towards potential enemies, but locating such an attitude entirely from his early experiences is not straightforward.

Xi’s formative life experiences

Toughness

8Xi’s early life was not easy. His father was almost unbelievably strict; he attended a school known for its macho relations among students; he was harassed in Beijing during the early years of the Cultural Revolution; and his time as a sent‑down youth was particularly brutal in terms of both physical and emotional hardship.

12However difficult the middle school might have been, life got even harder with the onset of the Cultural Revolution. In 1996, Xi’s former teacher Chen Qiuying 陈秋影 wrote, “Because of the irregular political life of his father and mother during the Cultural Revolution, he suffered extremely unfair treatment, and Xi Jinping was also seen by some as a ‘one of the five black elements, a bastard,’ and a ‘reactionary student.’” According to Chen, Xi “always believed that the clouds would disperse; under any circumstance he always was very confident of the future.” (Li 2007: 232)

13Although Jinping did not participate directly in the Red Guard movement because of his father’s status, he was close to many of the offspring of top officials who dominated the movement’s early phases (Nie and Wang 2011: 109). These individuals believed that their “Red genes” made them the true heirs of the revolution, rendering them unpopular among other students (Walder 2012). Xi would have known about how many of these students formed the Liandong 联动 (United Action) Red Guard faction in the hope of protecting their parents. This group ultimately suffered terribly when it was overcome by other groups supported by the central authorities (Mi 2011: 233-49). On January 25, 1967, the August 1 Middle School was assaulted by leftist forces and more than 30 students were detained, although according to some sources its student population was largely apolitical (Li 2007: 312-47). Shortly after, the school was closed down and turned into an exhibition showcasing the alleged special privileges of its students (Chunlei 1967).

Idealism

18Xi Jinping not only developed a strong sense of self-confidence; the evidence indicates he also became highly idealistic. One can find three likely roots of this trait: the first was that Xi’s father was a revolutionary fanatically devoted to the party’s historical mission; secondly, Jinping’s middle school heavily indoctrinated students in the importance of sacrifice; and thirdly, Jinping developed a sense of affection and duty towards the peasants with whom he lived in Shaanxi. Throughout his life, Xi has demonstrated a fascination with the importance of conviction.

19Many offspring of revolutionary figures came to see themselves as the inheritors of the revolution and as future leaders of China (Mi 2016: 127). Xi Jinping appears to have been among them. According to Jinping, as a child:

• 17 Evan Osnos, “Born Red,” The New Yorker, 90, No. 7, 6 April 2015.

[he heard his father talk] about how he joined the revolution, and he’d say, ‘You will certainly make revolution in the future.’ (…) He’d explain what revolution is. We heard so much of this that our ears got calluses.17

22Hagiographic treatments of Xi portray his stint among peasants while in the countryside as crucial for understanding his devotion to the nation. One may naturally wonder how much of this type of talk is simply propaganda, as some scholars have emphasised that the Cultural Revolution was in fact powerfully disillusioning for many young people (Yang 2017; Chan 1985). But if the hagiographic stories are basically correct, why was it that his own rural experience did not lead Xi to despondency? First, Xi was no regular sent-down youth. He was the son of a high-ranking official, and as the Chinese historian Gao Wenqian 高文谦 notes, although some of these individuals did indeed lose their idealism during the Cultural Revolution, for most of them the sense of historical mission they developed as children generally proved resilient (Gao 2016: 415).

23But we also have reason to believe that the sent-down youth experience actually increased Xi’s devotion. According to numerous accounts, many young people cried when their trains left Beijing for the countryside (Bonnin 2013: 231; Luo 1999: 238-39). Others, like the princeling Kong Dan 孔丹, hoped that the countryside would be a new start after the traumatic experiences in Beijing (Kong 2013: 111). Xi recalls:

• 20 “我是延安人,” (Wo shi Yan’an ren, I Am from Yan’an) (Documentary), 2004, https://www.you tube.com/watch? (...)

On the special train to Yan’an, I remember very clearly, that was January 1969, everyone was crying; on the whole special train there was no one who was not crying, except for me who was laughing. At the time my family standing outside the car all said, how could you be laughing? I said if I was staying I would be crying, if I did not go I don’t even know if I would live or die here, so isn’t leaving a good thing?20

25Given these factors in Xi’s childhood and adolescence, we do have some reason to believe that he may not have been untruthful when he stated:

• 22 Yang Xiaohuai, “Xi Jinping: How I entered the political world,” op cit., 43.

Now some authors in their works write about sent-down youths in a very brutal way. My feeling was not entirely like that.22

26Kong Dan (2013: 113) also later recalled, “I actually really appreciated that time period, it was very innocent.” Another sent-down youth wrote:

• 23 “Memory as a sent-down youth in Northern Shaanxi,” op cit.

When our lives were at their lowest point, when we were at our most helpless, the Northern Shaanxi people opened their minds to accept us. Just as when our fathers’ generation was nourished by the yellow soil in the Yan’an era, today the yellow soil opened its great bosom to accept their offspring. I’m afraid the great kindness that brought bounties to two generations is very difficult to pay back in this lifetime.23

28Xi has even used these ideas to explain the collapse of the USSR, as in the following quotation:

• 28 Chris Buckley, “Vows of Change in China Belie Private Warning,” op cit.

Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse? An important reason was that their ideals and convictions wavered (…). In the end nobody was a real man, nobody came out to resist.28

Pragmatism

30Although Xi prides himself on his toughness and sense of conviction, interestingly these traits have not translated either into an absence of flexibility as to means or into dangerously ambitious policies (except perhaps in the war on corruption). Again the past may provide clues why. The early Cultural Revolution in Beijing and his sent-down youth experiences again played a part in his character formation. These events seem to have inculcated in Xi a powerful sense of pragmatism because they clearly demonstrated the failure of radical leftist politics. Moreover, as a rusticated young person Xi was exposed at an early age to the reality of local politics in the complicated environment of a Chinese village.

31Propaganda accounts have emphasised this side of Xi. But sociologists and other experts on the Cultural Revolution have also seen Xi’s generation as pragmatic (Xu 1999: 228). Their experiences in the countryside led many young Chinese of that era not only to question the wisdom of “class struggle,” but also to challenge a number of “economic, societal, cultural, and other policy questions.” The previously heavily indoctrinated students were shocked by the situation in the villages, which contributed to their reflections about which policies the country really ought to pursue (Yin 2009: 216, 286). These youths were also primed for such reflection by a number of local conditions: the countryside’s less controlling atmosphere as compared with the cities; the complete lack of teachers who would have attempted to indoctrinate them; the obvious gap they discovered between communist theory and lived reality; and the pressing needs of the peasants (Mi 2011: 337-38). These takeaways played a significant role in the wide support for the reforms of the Deng era (Wang 2013: 77).

35Likely because of these reasons, despite Xi’s praise for Marxism as an ideal and motivating force, he has not interpreted it as encompassing a set of inflexible rules. In 1983, an investigation team from the Organisation Department was impressed by Xi’s commitment to reform and his sense of the problems with collectivism in agriculture (Yan 2017: 217). In the early 1990s, Xi wrote:

• 35 Xi Jinping 习近平, “跋” (Ba, Postscript), in Xi 1992, 158-60.

Actually Marxism is not abstruse. Marxism is a very matter-of-fact thing, a very matter-of-fact logic.35

Political caution

38As with his pragmatism, Xi’s caution and professed lack of ambition—at least up until he assumed the top position—contrasted with his toughness and idealism. Indeed, the historical record is full of examples of such facets of his nature. Like the characteristics discussed above, Xi’s caution was likely rooted in earlier experiences—in this case, his prolonged vulnerability. Xi’s ability to hide certain parts of his personality suggests that his rougher edges were tempered by cunning and a keen sensitivity to how to best protect himself and move up the ranks. Xi’s behaviour in this regard strongly differs from that of another member of his generational cohort who was also a son of a former high-ranking official, the now infamous Bo Xilai 薄熙来.

39The timing of Xi Zhongxun’s purge was of crucial importance to the development of caution in his son. As Chinese historian Gao Wenqian notes, Zhongxun was purged four years before the Cultural Revolution. At that time, Jinping was very young, and the fathers of his friends would still have been untouched. Gao (2016: 414) writes:

Xi Jinping was only nine years old when his father fell, so the tough environment directly influenced his personality. He is therefore good at forbearance and concealing his intentions, not revealing anything.

40Zhang Lifan 章立凡, another historian, similarly argues:

I think [Xi] has learned how to survive. In his childhood, Xi Jinping suffered a lot. All of this experience greatly affected him.

41One more such analysis comes from Li Datong 李大同, a former editor of a news journal:

• 40 Keith Richburg, “Rising Leader Xi Jinping’s Family Suffered in Chinese Power Struggles,” The Washin (...)

Xi Jinping is very low-profile and cautious, which might have some connection with his past experience in the 1960s when his father was kicked out of the power centre. He actually did not enjoy many benefits assumed to be extended to the ‘princelings’ in those times.40

• 44 Pin Ho and Wenguang Huang, A Death in the Lucky Holiday Hotel: Murder, Money and an Epic Power Stru (...)

I was locked up in prison because of my father [the famous revolutionary Bo Yibo]. The experience toughened my will and taught me how to think.44

46Although it is impossible to say for sure why Xi and Bo displayed such different behaviour, Bo’s early life can be distinguished in crucial ways from Xi’s. Bo was about four years older than Xi when the Cultural Revolution started, and Bo’s father was purged several years later than Xi’s. Therefore, as historian Gao Wenqian remarks, Bo faced serious setbacks in life “when he was in high school and his personality had already been formed, so although when he was [treated like] a bastard, he also had to rely on forbearance to survive, as soon as the situation changed, his previous impudent personality reappeared.” (Gao 2016: 414). As will be discussed in the next section, it was much later before Xi clearly displayed a ruthless side.

View of friends and enemies

47Xi’s early experiences help explain why he has often displayed toughness, idealism, pragmatism, and caution. Regarding the question of how Xi’s early life affected his understanding of the nature of political contradictions, however, the evidence is mixed. On the one hand, the Cultural Revolution was a time period in which many young men and women engaged in unrestricted political warfare. The Mao era showed the dangers of political weakness in the face of enemies, as well as the threat of chaos in the absence of strong political order. On the other hand, many in Xi’s generation believed that the brutality of the Mao era demonstrated a need for a more institutionalised kind of politics that prevented uncontrolled power struggles and allowed more freedoms in society. Given these two seemingly incompatible beliefs, it is not clear what lessons Xi drew from this period, nor is it obvious how exactly to classify his views on this matter.

48Certainly, we have at least some reason to believe that Xi’s experiences were conducive to becoming obsessed with domination and control. Xi spent years in an education system that emphasised class struggle, which taught that the fight against enemies was eternal and ubiquitous, that enemies could be behind any problem, that anyone could be an enemy, and that enemies should be treated viciously (Mi 2011: 63-64). Then, the Cultural Revolution ushered in a period of political struggle with few limits. Chinese sociologist and historian Xu Youyu 徐友渔 (1999: 234) argues, the Cultural Revolution created a “moral crisis and moral vacuum”:

For some people, any conventions are false and damaging, and any restrictions should be smashed. Sticking to rules became a manifestation of pedantry and ossification, and some basic norms of behaviour, like maintaining promises, obeying laws [zunfa shouji 尊法守纪] [like in work fulfilling one’s duties, not taking advantage of state property] were completely cast away. These people simply do not care about integrity and guarding against temptation. If doing a bad thing is not discovered, or if it is discovered but there is no punishment, then they will do anything they want.

49Xu (1999: 236) concludes that the Red Guards learned:

In order to get benefit, it is necessary to have power. The desire for power in this generation, the sensitivity to how power is divided, is definitely beyond that of others.

51Some evidence suggests that Xi did develop a suspicious, aggressive attitude towards enemies and a fear of chaos. In 2000, he told an interviewer:

• 48 Evan Osnos, “Born Red,” op cit.

People who have little experience with power, those who have been far away from it, tend to regard these things as mysterious and novel. But I look past the superficial things: the power and the flowers and the glory and the applause. I see the detention houses, the fickleness of human relationships.48

52Xi (1992: 62) very revealingly referred to the Cultural Revolution in a speech he gave in Ningde, Fujian Province, at a work conference on media issues in May 1989—shortly before the crackdown on protests in Beijing:

Wasn’t the “Cultural Revolution” the manifestation of “big democracy”? This kind of “big democracy” is not in accord with science, not in accord with the rule of law, but is instead in accord with superstition, in accord with stupidity, and the result is major chaos. Anyone can organise a few people to go and ransack homes, anyone can pull together a struggle unit, today I knock you down, tomorrow you knock me down. Can these days be repeated? Without stability and unity, nothing is possible!

[China] could only conform to human civilisation’s great road of universal values and concept of modern human rights, to walk the road of ruling the nation by law, a society of citizens, and democratic politics. It absolutely cannot again engage in populist revolutionary rebel campaigns.

55How, then, should one explain instances of Xi’s aggressive attitude towards potential threats inside and outside the Party since coming to power (Saich 2017; Caster 2017)? If Xi drew only one set of lessons, the need to crush enemies and prioritise stability above all else, and not another, the need to avoid a politics of struggle and exclusion, that would be enormously revealing of what kind of person Xi is. Another possibility is that his position as top leader changed him—his own father Zhongxun once said, “This thing power depraves people” (quanli zhege dongxi fushi ren a 权力这个东西腐蚀人啊). (Chen 2013: 423). As the work of John Garnaut reveals, princelings argue about whether Bo Xilai’s youthful experience really had any effect on his “later excesses” (Garnaut 2013: 28). Xi himself may be struggling with the question of how to balance the duelling lessons of the Mao era.

Conclusion

56In 1984, the author Ke Yunlu 柯云路 published a novel, New Star, which included a character bearing such a strong resemblance to Xi Jinping that some wondered whether the character was in fact partly based on him (Ke 2016). In March 2017, Ke was asked what could be learned about the current generation of leadership from New Star. Ke answered:

• 51 Ian Johnson, “Liberating China’s Past: An Interview with Ke Yunlu,” The New York Review of Books (b (...)

They are comparatively strong. They dare to act.
They have a consciousness of reform. In some areas they are not sticklers for the legacy of their predecessors.
They have a strong consciousness of national revival. They have ample political experience.
They are idealists as well as pragmatists, but everything depends on feasibility.51

57As Ke’s list and the evidence provided above suggest, a generally consistent mosaic of the characteristics of Xi and some others among his generation had already emerged many years ago. How the potentially contradictory impulses will play out remain to be seen. On the one hand, China is now led by a tough individual on a mission to save the PRC, a plan that includes restoring faith in the CCP’s historic mission. However, within the broader context of Xi’s belief in the importance of personal motivation and conviction, he has proven to be quite flexible with regard to means. Mao used to emphasise the difference between being principled in strategy and flexible in tactics—Xi has apparently inherited this concept.

58Whether Xi’s historically-formed worldview will help or hurt regime resiliency over the long term today remains to be seen. A leader with another set of historical baggage might have settled on a different path to shore up the PRC, one that enhanced stability by unambiguously supporting collective leadership and inner-party democracy; fought corruption by employing the media and improving the rule of law; provided more rights to its citizens; and ambitiously pursued the reforms necessary for China’s long-term economic vibrancy. Xi has bet China’s future on a rather different set of policies.