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Shrinking cities: measuring the phenomenon in France

Manuel Wolff, Sylvie Fol, Hélène Roth et Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot
Traduction de Emma Maisonnave
Cet article est une traduction de :
Shrinking Cities, villes en décroissance : une mesure du phénomène en France
Autre(s) traduction(s) de cet article :
Shrinking Cities, ciudades y su pérdida de población: dimensión del fenómeno en Francia

Résumé

While Shrinking Cities are the object of a growing interest in Europe and in the United States, they remain understudied in France. Indeed, few research works have been dedicated to the topic and urban policies, at least at the national level, do not deal with this question. This situation could find an explanation in the fact that the process of urban shrinkage, in France, has not reached the point where it could get academic and politic attention. In order to verify this hypothesis, this article aims at measuring the extent of the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in France. It will try to assess whether this process, although internationally recognized, is in France as marginal as the lack of interest it creates suggests or whether its evolution could lead to a better recognition by national policies.

Keywords: demographic change, Shrinking Cities, urban shrinkage, urban decline

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Notes de la rédaction

Cet article est une traduction de l’article Shrinking Cities, villes en décroissance : une mesure du phénomène en France.

Texte intégral

Introduction

  • 1 The Wende (literally: turning point) designates the transformation process in former GDR in the ear (...)
  • 2 The group “Shrinking Cities” was established during a project funded by the Kulturstiftung des Bund (...)
  • 3 The authors of this article are members of the Shrinking Cities International Research Network, fou (...)

1For the past few years, particularly since the recent economic crisis and its impacts on the real estate sector, the phenomenon of Shrinking Cities is the object of a growing interest in both media and urban research. In Europe, the topic of Shrinking Cities emerged in Germany in the early 2000's, when the dramatic consequences of the Wende1 on the economic and demographic evolution of the cities in Eastern Germany cities came to light (Hannemann, 2003; Glock and Häußermann, 2004; Kabisch et al., 2006; Florentin et al., 2009). In the mid-2000's, the works of the group “Shrinking Cities”, facilitated by Philip Oswalt2, underlined the international dimension of the phenomenon by illustrating it with examples from several continents (Europe, North America, Japan). Similarly, the Shrinking Cities International Research Network3 based its research on the assumption that urban shrinkage is a global process. More recently, the American subprime mortgage crisis intensified the focus on cities affected by population decline and the issue of Shrinking Cities was greatly covered by the media, such as the tragic destinies of the cities of Detroit, Cleveland, Flint or Youngstown. The decline of these cities, greatly affected by deindustrialization, had already begun before the real estate crisis but its impacts were particularly intense in already very fragile economic and social contexts.

2Research on shrinking cities reveals continuous links between this phenomenon and the process of urban decline, which has been analyzed in many works, especially in the United-States (Weaver, 1977; Breckenfeld, 1978; Rybczynski and Linneman, 1999; Downs, 1999; Beauregard, 2003). But it also seems to highlight the emergence of more global processes of urban shrinkage, linked to societal evolutions such as the second demographic transition (Van de Kaa, 1987) and the effects of globalization on cities (Amin and Thrift, 1994; Harvey, 2000; Scott and Storper, 2003; Dicken, 2003). The combination of several processes is thereby at the heart of the phenomenon of shrinking cities, a shrinking city being defined as an “urban area […] that has experienced population loss, economic downturn, employment shrinkage and social problems as symptoms of a structural crisis” (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2012: 214).

3In France, unlike in other countries in Europe and North America, the issue of shrinking cities as such is very little studied in urban research and is often forgotten by public policies. This absence of interest is probably linked to the fact that France is one of the countries in Europe where the issue of demographic decline is less acute, due to a high fertility rate. Nevertheless, the country is experiencing urban shrinkage. Numerous industrial cities are still struggling with the never-ending consequences of the economic, social and urban crisis (DATAR, 2008). Moreover, many small cities seem to have trouble keeping their population (Paulus, 2004). The 1999 population census results showed that, in comparison with 1990, a third of urban areas had lost part of their population, and that small urban areas were particularly affected by this phenomenon (Julien, 2000). Urban shrinkage therefore seems to be a “silent process” in France (Cunningham-Sabot and Fol, 2009), rarely commented at a national scale, little analyzed in urban research and overlooked by public policies. The situation is however different at a local scale and the study of the regional press shows that demographic or economic decline is a recurrent preoccupation for local elected officials. Similarly, certain regional reports significantly reflect the consequences of population decline in several French regions (INSEE Champagne-Ardenne, 2005; INSEE, 2010). Finally, if we take a closer look at the urban policies implemented in certain cities, it is no surprise to find disguised “anti-shrinkage” policies (Nonny-Davadie, 2010, 2011; Rouault, 2011).

4Given this contrast between the well-identified situations of urban shrinkage at a local scale and the ignorance of the process at the national level this article aims at measuring the extent of urban shrinkage in France. We seek to understand if this phenomenon, although internationally recognized, is as marginal as the lack of interest for it suggests, or if its evolution bodes an extension that will lead to the necessary realization of its existence at the French national level. The article also intends on identifying the different types of cities most affected by urban shrinkage. Finally, by focusing on the different processes occurring in French shrinking cities, we will try to determine trends and patterns, in terms of population trajectories and local driving factors.

Urban shrinkage: an emerging phenomenon in urban studies

5The first references to shrinking sities date back to the 1970’s in the United-States; Schrumpfende Städte appeared in literature at the same time in Germany (Fol and Cunningham-Sabot, 2010; Baron et al., 2010; Cunningham-Sabot, 2012). However, these terms, which imply contraction, in both English and German, were very rarely used before the 21st century, even if they contributed to launching the debate on the issue of urban shrinkage in West Germany in the late 1980's (Häußermann and Siebel, 1988). From 2000 onwards, the “demographic shock” caused by post-socialist transformations (Steinführer and Haase, 2007) led to the unprecedented increase of studies on shrinking cities, first in Germany (Florentin et al., 2009; Roth, 2011) then in Europe and globally (Baron et al., 2010).

The analyses of the Shrinking Cities phenomenon in Europe

  • 4 Philippe Aydalot (1985) believes that this model attributes a permanent cyclical aspect to a dated (...)

6Numerous studies were dedicated to processes of urban growth and shrinkage in Europe, but, until recently, they mainly aimed at providing general city development models. In 1984, Hall suggested a city development model based on Kondratieff’s wave theory. Similarly, Hall and Hay (1980) attempted to establish a regular pattern of urban development, whereas van den Berg et al. (1982) promoted a theory of metropolitan processes through four stages: urbanization, suburbanization, de-urbanization and eventually re-urbanization. These different models that see urban shrinkage as inevitable, were criticized4 (Aydalot, 1985; Cattan et al., 1999) and questioned by other studies that indicated that the evolution of cities is a diversified and complex process extremely difficult to analyze through a unique evolution model (Cheshire, Hay, 1989; Cheshire, 1995; Champion, 2001; Buzar et al., 2007).

  • 5 Turok and Mykhnenko’s analysis is based on a morphological definition (continuous built-up area) an (...)
  • 6 Turok and Mykhnenko considered in this category the cities that experienced a growth phase in the 1 (...)
  • 7 The cities in this category have only experienced shrinkage since the 2000’s. This category include (...)

7In more recent works the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has been identified at the European scale. Turok and Mykhnenko (2007), who analyzed the evolution of 3105 cities in 36 European countries since the 1960's, showed that while the common profile was continuous growth (30% of these cities), a significant share of cities had been declining on a medium-term basis6 (24%) or recently7 (13%). Most of these cities were located in Central and Eastern Europe. During the same period, a small number of cities (13), all located in the UK and Germany, experienced continuous shrinkage. Moreover, the number of growing cities has gradually decreased since the 1960’s; at the turn of the millennium, there were more shrinking cities than growing cities. The East-West rupture is determining, as between 2000 and 2005, 78% of cities in Western Europe were growing, whereas 82% of cities in Eastern Europe were declining (Turok and Mykhnenko, 2007).

  • 8 The analysis is based on an administrative definition and includes 258 cities with population great (...)

8A study carried out by the Urban Audit showed convergent results and highlighted the national and regional dimension of urban shrinkage. Based on the analysis of 258 large European cities8 between 1996 and 2011, the study concluded that “a third of cities grew at a rate exceeding 0.2% per year, a third saw their populations remain stable […] and a third experienced a notable decline in population” (European Commission, 2007: 7). Whereas growth concerns cities in North and Southern Europe and urban shrinkage concentrates significantly in Eastern European cities, the situation in Western European cities is more contrasted. Regional contexts, especially in the former industrial regions in Germany and in the United Kingdom, played an important role in processes of urban shrinkage (European Commission, 2007). Similarly, the Urban Audit report underlined the effects of national contexts: the cities decreasing most rapidly are generally located in countries losing population, such as Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic States.

9Recent studies for Europe (Baron et al., 2010) confirmed the fact that most shrinking cities are located in shrinking regions, with the exception of a few industrial and port cities in growing regions (such as Saint-Étienne, Le Havre, Genoa, Palermo or Aberdeen). These studies also underline the important contrast between Western Europe, where urban growth is still dominant, and Eastern Europe, where urban shrinkage has become the rule and where even capitals have become shrinking cities (Budapest, Bucharest, Riga). The link between shrinking cities and shrinking regions shows that the process can extend: according to the research conducted at a regional scale, 42% of European regions could experience shrinkage in the near future (UMS Riate et al., 2008; Baron et al., 2010). The number of shrinking regions (Müller and Sidentop, 2004) should thereby increase. Despite very visible regional tendencies toward population decline in Eastern Europe and in the peripheral parts of the continent, these studies predict that, with the current demographic tendencies, no country in Europe should be spared from depopulation in all or part of its territory (UMS Riate et al., 2008; Baron et al., 2010; ESPON DEMIFER, 2010).

  • 9 The authors of this article are members of the European COST program, dedicated to declining cities (...)

10In contrast to the development and dissemination of studies on urban shrinkage at a European scale9, it is very surprising to see that this issue has been met with little response in France.

An understudied issue in France

  • 10 Cities with less than 10,000 inhabitants.

11The literature on urban systems undoubtedly deals with the phenomena of urban shrinkage. However, shrinking cities are mainly considered as parts of urban system dynamics rather than as a specific process (Guérin-Pace and Pumain, 1990; Guérin-Pace, 1993; Bretagnolle, 1999, 2003; Paulus, 2005). In her study on the evolution of French cities since 1830, Guérin-Pace (1993) shows that most cities have experienced continuous growth on the long term and that a few shrinking cities were scattered across the country, mostly in the periphery of large cities. However, since the 1960s, a regional tendency has emerged, with shrinking cities localized in mainly former industrial regions. Paulus (2005) demonstrated that these regional tendencies are linked to a new spatial organization of economic activities that favors regions in the south rather than old industrial cities in the north. In his study on the demographic evolution of French cities since 1954, he showed that 38 of 354 French urban areas have experienced “absolute decline” over the whole period. According to him, the main factor for this is economic specialization. Another interesting result in his work concerns small cities10, 43% of which lost population between 1975 and 1999. Again, the depopulation of these cities is basically driven by economic specialization. Generally, studies on urban systems (Guérin-Pace and Pumain, 1990), particularly those of Anne Bretagnolle (1999, 2003), indicate that the development of higher speed transport has engendered a process of “space-time contraction” that benefits large urban centers that concentrate services, activities and employment, to the detriment of small cities, which are increasingly “short-circuited” in terms of urban development.

12Moreover, some studies have focused on the case of shrinking industrial cities, highlighting the effects of shrinkage on the economic and social aspects of cities and the regeneration strategies implemented by local stakeholders. These studies, which were rare until the late 2000s (Wachter, 1991; Sabot, 1999; Le Galès, 1993), are using a few emblematic case studies such as Saint-Étienne, Roubaix or Mulhouse, with all dimensions of urban shrinkage being analyzed (Miot, 2012, 2013; Cunningham-Sabot and Roth, 2013). They focus on urban regeneration strategies in a critical way, in order to highlight the difficulties they face as well as their contradictions (Béal et al., 2010; Miot, 2012; Roth and Cunningham-Sabot, 2012) or their (not always explicit) goals of social transformation and gentrification, in a neoliberalizing context of urban policies (Rousseau, 2010; Cunningham-Sabot and Roth, 2013).

13Despite the growing number of studies, the interest for the issue of shrinking cities remains limited in France (Cunningham-Sabot and Fol, 2007; Fol and Cunningham-Sabot, 2010). The question of shrinkage is essentially linked to the study of rural areas and industrial regions and, to a lesser extent to suburbs in crisis. This is very well illustrated in a recent article by Couch et al. that compares the policies of urban regeneration in France, Great-Britain and Germany: in the case of France, they focus their analysis on regeneration policies at the neighborhood level, whereas for Germany and the UK, these policies concern schrumpfende Städte and shrinking cities as a whole. It is now a matter of determining whether the low academic and political interest for this issue is due to the marginal nature of the phenomenon of shrinking cities in France.

A geography of shrinking cities in France

Methodological choices

  • 11 This study was performed before the latest census results have been released which used the new del (...)

14In this statistical and mapping study of the phenomenon, declining cities are defined as urban areas that have lost population between 1975 and 2007. This narrow definition is based on methodological choices that influence the results of the analysis and for which the challenges and limits have to be specified (Guérois and Paulus, 2002). The chosen spatial framework refers to a functional definition of the city (Aires Urbaines) and enables us to exclude, at least partially, the spatial extension of the urban population (periurbanization) from factors of urban shrinkage. By measuring demographic trends in areas with constant limits (1999 delineation11), we can evaluate the population’s absolute variation. However, this measurement tends to overestimate the initial population of the urban area, and consequently to underestimate population variations (Paulus and Pumain, 2000). Demographic decline is therefore potentially undervalued with this method. Moreover, the choice of the urban area as a spatial framework for the measurement implies excluding the analysis of small cities outside urban areas.

  • 12 For a detailed explanation on the choices of the terms used to designate the process of urban shrin (...)

15The indicator used to measure urban shrinkage is population loss, which excludes other processes of the complex urban dynamics. The multidimensional nature of urban shrinkage (Fol, Cunningham-Sabot, 2010) will however be discussed in the last part of the article (typology). Population variation is analyzed in absolute terms rather than in relation to the average evolution of French cities, as this analysis is part of a body of research aiming at identifying and comprehending the impacts and challenges of population decline for cities (especially the works by the Shrinking Cities International Research Network, SCiRN). The chosen time frame to measure French urban shrinkage, between 1975 and 2007, is, on one hand, justified with regard to the economic transformations that have accentuated the different trajectories of cities for the past thirty years; on the other hand, by the general spatial expansion of urban populations from the mid-1970s onward. Choosing this relatively short period in the history of French cities is justified by the preference given to the term of urban shrinkage rather than that of urban decline, the latter implying a sense of inevitability and even irreversibility of the phenomenon that does not reflect our point of view12.

A limited phenomenon

16The phenomenon of shrinking cities is limited in France. Out of 354 French urban areas, 69 of them (19.5%) experienced population loss between 1975 and 2007. This represents 4,330,400 inhabitants, or 9.1% of the population of urban areas in 2007. Moreover, only one of them, Decazeville, experienced population loss of over 1% per year between 1975 and 2007 (from 27,734 to 40,893 inhabitants). Seven of these cities declined between 0.5 and 1% per year, including emblematic medium-sized industrial cities such as Longwy (from 53,789 to 40,893 inhabitants), Le Creusot (from 48,517 to 39,584 inhabitants) and Monceau-les-Mines (from 55,320 to 45,575 inhabitants). Among the seventeen urban areas that experienced population loss between 0.25 and 0.5% per year are two larger cities (with over 150,000 inhabitants in 2007): Saint-Étienne and Thionville (with an annual rate of shrinkage of 0.38%). Population losses in prominent shrinking cities, such as Douai-Lens and Valenciennes, do not exceed 0.16% and 0.21% per year, respectively. Similarly, large shrinking cities (between 100,000 and 300,000 inhabitants in 2007) like Le Havre, Béthune, Montbéliard, Maubeuge or Charleville-Mézières did not experience annual population losses of more than 0.25%. The phenomenon of shrinking cities therefore remains limited in terms of number of cities affected and of intensity of population loss. In comparison to European countries with massive urban shrinkage such as Germany (Heineberg, 2004) or Central and Eastern Europe (Turok, Mykhnenko, 2007), France is greatly spared by the phenomenon and mainly remains a country with growing cities on the long term (Guérin-Pace and Pumain, 1990; Guérin-Pace, 1993).

17This first result – the limited nature of urban shrinkage in France, concerning 20% of urban areas and 9% of the urban population – is linked to the methodological choices specified above. The choice of another definition of the city and/or a shorter or longer time frame could have led to different conclusions. According to Paulus (2004), 38 of the 354 French urban areas (less than 11%) have experienced absolute shrinkage between 1954 and 1999. However, recent research (Wolff and Wiechmann, 2011) that analyzed the evolution of European cities of over 5,000 inhabitants on a shorter time span (1990-2009) and dealing with 506 urban units in the case of France, demonstrated that a fifth of cities are declining, which is a similar order of magnitude.

Figure 1: Annual population variation of urban areas between 1975 and 2007

Figure 1: Annual population variation of urban areas between 1975 and 2007

Annual population variation of urban areas between 1975 and 2007 (%)
Population of urban areas in 2007

Source: INSEE, 2010
Design: Manuel Wolff
Elaboration: Manuel Wolff, Hélène Roth
UMR Géographie-cités

A process mainly limited to former mining and industrial regions

18In line with the findings at the European scale (Baron et al., 2010), our results underline the regional component of urban shrinkage in France. Shrinking cities are basically located in former mining and industrial areas in the north, north-east and around the Massif Central.

19Figure 1 reveals a particularly strong spatial concentration of shrinking cities in the north and north-east of France, in the former mining and industrial areas. This observation is in line with other studies that highlight the geographic concentration of declining cities in the former industrial regions of Lorraine and in the north from 1954 onward (Guérin-Pace and Pumain, 1990). It also confirms the fact that, since the mid-1970s, the demographic dynamics of cities has been relatively stable and expose a clear regional component (Paulus, 2004). This regional tendency of urban shrinkage corresponds to the specialization of declining cities in receding economic sectors (mono-industrialized).

20French shrinking cities can also be found in the mining and industrial areas around the Massif Central. This region, labeled as a “France of urban mediocrity” by Édouard (2010), is particularly affected by the phenomenon, such as the cities of Saint-Étienne, Moulins, Tulle, Montluçon, Roanne, Thiers or Decazeville, the latter one experiencing the strongest population decline between 1975 and 2007 (its population decreased by a third over this period). Cities having lost part of their population between 1975 and 2007 are mostly located in central France, especially in the departments of Allier, Cher, Nièvre, Saône-et-Loire and Loire.

21This front of shrinkage can be extended to the regions of Bourgogne, Lorraine and Champagne-Ardenne, as well as the Aisne and Nord departments. If we link the two large areas of urban shrinkage correlated to a mining and industrial history, the northern part of the “diagonal void”, between Ardennes and Auvergne further adds to the geography of shrinking cities. In Champagne-Ardenne, three quarters of urban areas have experienced significant population losses between 1975 and 2007 (over -0.5% per year), and in the departments of Haute-Marne and Ardennes, all urban areas are shrinking. In the regions of Lorraine and Bourgogne, almost half of urban areas went through population decline during the 1975-2007 period. In the rest of the country, urban shrinkage appears to be more dispersed, with a few cases in Brittany (Paimpol, Penmarch, Douarnenez) or in the vicinity of the Pyrenees (Lourdes, Mazamet) ; it is almost nonexistent in south-eastern France.

22In France, urban shrinkage thus specifically concerns cities located in industrial or mining regions, as well as cities that depended on a small range of activities, especially industrial ones. This observation is not specific to France and confirms previous works on a broader scale (OCDE, 1983). The studies carried out on a European scale (Baron et al., 2010; ESPON DEMIFER, 2010) expose the role of industrial downturn in processes of regional population decline. They also reveal multiple cases of severe shrinkage in peripheral regions, such as in Scandinavia and southern Italy, where processes of shrinkage are less linked to deindustrialization than isolation or disruption from economic decision-making centers. To enrich this first approach, an analysis of urban shrinkage in relation to the population size of cities is needed.

The influence of population size

  • 13 The smallest declining urban area (minimum threshold) is Lillebonne, with 11,274 inhabitants in 200 (...)
  • 14 The biggest declining urban area (maximum threshold) is Douai-Lens with 546,294 inhabitants in 2007

23The majority of French shrinking cities correspond to small urban areas: three quarters (74%) of the 69 declining urban areas have less than 50,000 inhabitants, and the more serious cases (losses of -0.5% or more per year) exclusively concern small urban areas13. Furthermore, almost a quarter of urban areas in this category are shrinking. Conversely, only five urban areas with over 250,000 inhabitants are shrinking, which represents less than 14% of urban areas of that category14. The difference between small and large urban areas in terms of relative population is even more distinct: 23% of the total population in urban areas with less than 50,000 inhabitants lives in shrinking cities, compared to 6% for urban areas of over 250,000 inhabitants.

24The prevalence of shrinkage among small cities has been confirmed by studies on European cities (Turok and Mykhnenko, 2007) and is explained in French literature by the evolution of urban systems. As cities attract innovation cycles, the “space-time contraction” process of urban systems, through “tunnel-effects”, leads to small and medium-sized cities being “short-circuited” to the benefit of larger cities (Bretagnolle, 1999, 2003). Urban hierarchies therefore go through a “bottom-up simplification” linked to the fatality of the small-sized cities that statistically reduces the chances for development of the lower levels of urban hierarchy (Paulus and Pumain, 2000). While the generalized improvement of transportation boosts the expansion of large cities’ areas of influence that triumphantly compete against the influence of small cities (Guérin-Pace and Pumain, 1990), the spatial extent of cities linked to the increase of travel speeds creates “customer acquisition-like effects” unfavorable to small cities (Bretagnolle et al., 2002). Large cities thus consolidate their status to the disadvantage of small and medium-sized cities that appear doomed to stagnation at best and shrinkage at worst (Pumain, 1999). The lack of access associated to insufficient transportation facilities is also a factor of decline for small cities, in a context of “extreme stability of the link between evolution of access, size and urban growth” (Bretagnolle, 2003).

Table 1: Population variation of urban areas by size, in absolute and relative numbers (1975-2007)

Annual population variation 1975-2007

Population categories (2007, in thousands)

< 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

> 400

Number of urban areas

(< -0,5)

8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(-0,5 - 0)

43

8

3

2

0

2

1

1

1

(0 - 0,5)

73

20

11

3

0

5

2

0

4

(0,5 - 1)

58

26

12

3

3

0

3

3

10

(> 1)

31

8

2

0

4

1

0

0

3

Total

213

62

28

8

7

8

6

4

18

(< -0,5)

2,3 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

(-0,5 - 0)

12,1 %

2,3 %

0,8 %

0,6 %

0 %

0,6 %

0,3 %

0,3 %

0,3 %

(0 - 0,5)

20,6 %

5,6 %

3,1 %

0,8 %

0 %

1,4 %

0,6 %

0,0 %

1,1 %

(0,5 - 1)

16,4 %

7,3 %

3,4 %

0,8 %

0,8 %

0 %

0,8 %

0,8 %

2,8 %

(> 1)

8,8 %

2,3 %

0,6 %

0 %

1,1 %

0,3 %

0 %

0 %

0,8 %

Total

60,2 %

17,5 %

7,9 %

2,3 %

2,0 %

2,3 %

1,7 %

1,1 %

5,1 %

Population of urban areas (2007, in thousands)

(< -0,5)

219

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(-0,5 - 0)

1.005

627

322

338

0

557

317

399

546

(0 - 0,5)

1.783

1.440

1.346

533

0

1.370

614

0

2.544

(0,5 - 1)

1.484

1.916

1.427

549

704

0

1.000

1.152

20.195

(> 1)

791

594

244

0

930

280

0

0

2.195

Total

5.282

3.281

3.339

1.420

1.634

974

932

1.551

25.480

(< -0,5)

0,5 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

(-0,5 - 0)

2,1 %

1,3 %

0,7 %

0,7 %

0 %

1,2 %

0,7 %

0,8 %

1,2 %

(0 - 0,5)

3,8 %

3,0 %

2,8 %

1,1 %

0 %

2,9 %

1,3 %

0 %

5,4 %

(0,5 - 1)

3,1 %

4,0 %

3,0 %

1,2 %

1,5 %

0 %

2,1 %

2,4 %

42,6 %

(> 1)

1,7 %

1,3 %

0,5 %

0 %

2,0 %

0,6 %

0 %

0 %

4,6 %

Total

11,2 %

9,6 %

7,0 %

3,0 %

3,5 %

4,7 %

4,1 %

3,2 %

53,8 %

25Other studies focused on the destinies of small cities (Ferrerol, 2010). Often characterized by economic specialization, small cities are generally below the threshold that allows them to provide for a large range of activities and services. This lack of diversity entails a relatively inflexible labor market and a general increasing fragility (Laborie, 1978, 2005). Their frequent geographical isolation, as well as their limited technical, scientific and decisional environment, does not encourage innovation and increases “the risks of marginalization” (Lugan, 1994). Similarly, Taulelle (2010) indicates that the metropolitan phenomenon directly hinders the development of small cities located far from metropolises, “in terms of polarization and appeal of wealth and individuals”.

The relevance of migration as a shrinkage factor

  • 15 In their study on the residential attractiveness of the 100 largest French cities, Alexandre et al. (...)

26While the expansion of shrinking cities in numerous European countries is intricately linked to decreasing fertility rates and to natural population decline (Oswalt, 2006; Steinführer and Haase, 2007), the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in France is mainly driven by migratory dynamics. Processes of urban shrinkage are largely explained by the loss of residential attractiveness15.

27Between 1968 and 1975, most French shrinking cities lost part of their population due to migration deficit (figure 2). However, between 1975 and 1982, the French urban landscape became a bipolar one: although cities in the north and north-east continued to experience negative migration rates, those of the south-west started to endure natural losses. Cities located along the Spanish border and in the center of the country were affected by both migratory losses and negative natural rates.

28Between 1982 and 1990, the number of shrinking cities affected by migration deficits increased, especially in the north and the center. This in turn led to negative natural rates, as was the case for Vierzon. However, the natural balance remained the main factor of population decline in the south and the center, where certain cities lost part of their inhabitants despite a positive migratory rate. The center of the country gathers shrinking cities concerned by both negative natural and migratory rates.

29Since 1999, these tendencies continue, with shrinking cities in north and eastern France that combine a positive natural rate and a negative migratory rate. Shrinking cities in the center of the country, such as Vierzon, Autun, Saint-Amand and Montluçon, are still characterized by migratory and natural deficits. Such cities affected by double negative rates are also found in Brittany (Paimpol) and the south-west (Mazamet).

30More generally in France, migration has a stronger influence on urban shrinkage than natural decline. Between 1999 and 2007, although all urban areas with population decline had a natural surplus (except for Montluçon which experienced both migratory and naturel deficits), this did not compensate for the migration deficit.. In the northern and eastern regions of France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Lorraine, Haute-Normandie, Picardie and Champagne-Ardenne), this predominance of the migration factor in urban demographic dynamics is also confirmed by studies on residential mobility in France underlying that migratory rates remain negative in these departments (Baccaïni and Lévy, 2009).

Figure 2: Evolution of natural and migratory rates (1968-2007)

Figure 2: Evolution of natural and migratory rates (1968-2007)

Types of population dynamics in declining urban areas according to natural and migratory factors
Natural rates / Migration rate s
Population of urban areas in 2007

Source: INSEE, 2010. Design: Manuel Wolff. Elaboration: Manuel Wolff, Hélène Roth.
UMR Géographie-cités

  • 16 Measured by the evolution of population between 1990 and 2009 in 506 urban units. The study therefo (...)

31Urban shrinkage thus appears to be a limited phenomenon in France, insofar as it only concerns a small number of cities and of the urban population. Other recent studies provide perspective on processes of urban shrinkage in France in comparison with other countries. The analyses by Wolff and Wiechmann (2013) demonstrated that the proportion of shrinking cities in France16 (one out of five cities) is among the European average. Yet, although some other European countries such as Poland or Germany have a similar proportion of declining cities, their characteristics are different: in Poland, the cities in question are bigger than in France, and in Germany, the pace of shrinkage is more sustained on a comparable period. The results of the studies on Eastern European cities (Steinführer and Haase, 2007), on Germany (Roth, 2011) or on European regions (Baron et al., 2010), show that the influence of the natural factor (natural rate or increase) is more limited in France than in other countries. Now that we have identified these general tendencies, the exploratory analysis can be deepened by studying the different dynamics of urban shrinkage in France.

Differentiated dynamics of urban shrinkage in France

32Although significant common tendencies can be found when analyzing French shrinking cities, urban shrinkage does not manifest itself in all areas in the same way and with the same pace. We will analyze these differences through the prism of three components: a temporal component to measure the evolution of this phenomenon since the 1970s; a spatial component to comprehend the role of urban centers and of urban fringes in the dynamics of shrinkage; a socio-economic component to investigate the complexity of a process whose demographic dimension is only one of many aspects.

Understanding the evolutions over time: the progression of urban shrinkage in France

  • 17 AHC in Euclidean distance.

33In order to draw the types of trajectories over the period 1975-2007, an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC17) was performed using the Ward method, on the standardized values of population sizes for each reference year.

Figure 3: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories (index 100 in 1975)

Figure 3: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories (index 100 in 1975)

Recent regrowth after shrinkage
Recent shrinkage
Discontinued shrinkage
Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s
Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s
Long-term shrinkage
Population of urban areas in 2007

Source: INSEE, 2010
Design/ Elaboration: Manuel Wolff
UMR Géographie-cités

Figure 4: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories

Figure 4: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories

Interrupted shrinkage (n=11; 16%)
Recent regrowth after (n=5; 7.2%)
Discontinued shrinkage (n=23; 33.3%)
Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s (n=10; 14.5%)
Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s (n=10; 14.5%)
Long-term shrinkage (n=10; 14.5%)

Source: INSEE, 2010

34The category “sustained shrinkage” corresponds to cities whose population decline since 1975 is stable over the whole period. It concerns a dozen small and medium-sized cities with economies that were initially very specialized in industry (Montluçon, Fourmies, Decazeville), or in commercial and administrative functions (Autun, Gray).

35Two other categories gather cities whose population decline is continuous over the whole period but particularly strong during the 1970-1980 or 1980-1990 decades. These categories are characterized by a reduction of population decline in the 2000s compared to previous decades. This concerns twenty mainly medium-sized and big cities marked by deindustrialization (such as Valenciennes, Douai-Lens, Saint-Étienne, Roanne, Montbéliard, Thionville).

36Two other profiles correspond to cities whose total population variation is negative but discontinued over the 1975-2007 period, with shrinkage having succeeded to periods of population growth or stagnation. The category “interrupted shrinkage” covers 23 small or medium-sized cities with commercial and service functions located in the Paris Basin (Épernay, Saint-Dizier, Vitry-le-François, Langres), and/or industrial functions (Saumur, Flers, Chaumont). This category also includes small industrial cities whose organization into industrial districts has delayed the reduction of industrial employment and its effects on the local demography (Thiers, Saint-Claude), as well as several industrial cities in northern France, such as Maubeuge. The category “recent shrinkage” corresponds to five cities whose population number stagnated or slightly increased until the 1990s before decreasing during the 2000 decade.

37Finally, the last category gathers eleven urban areas that present a decrease of their population over the 1975-2007 period, followed by a demographic revival in the 2000s. These are small cities scattered over the whole territory (Verdun, Lunéville, Tulle) whose trajectory shows that population decline is not necessarily irreversible.

38This classification of the demographic trajectories of shrinking urban areas enables us to observe a progression of shrinkage, particularly in the north, east and center of the country.

Understanding the evolutions in space: stronger population decline in the centers

  • 18 For Europe, Baron et al. (2010) highlighted certain cases such as Rotterdam and Leipzig where the n (...)

39In European, urban shrinkage was mainly reflected by population loss in the centers, sometimes accompanied by an intense suburbanization18. If periurban development did not compensate for the shrinkage of centers, cities then experienced population loss (Baron et al., 2010).

Figure 5: Population variation in centers and peripheries of declining urban areas, between 1962 and 2007

Figure 5: Population variation in centers and peripheries of declining urban areas, between 1962 and 2007

Population variation in urban centers and the peripheries of declining cities
Centers
Peripheries

Source: INSEE, 2010
Design/ Elaboration: Manuel Wolff
UMR Géographie-cités

40In the 1960s, the natural surplus was especially high in the urban centers of the big shrinking urban areas. After 1968, this surplus started to decrease in all shrinking cities, but more sharply in the largest centers. The natural increase, which was weaker in the peripheries of shrinking cities at the beginning of the period, increased in the 1980s and exceeded that of centers from 1999 onward. The centers of shrinking cities, particularly in the biggest ones, were affected by strong migration deficits from 1975 onward. On the contrary, the peripheries generally experienced positive migratory rates, to the exception of the biggest shrinking cities from 1990 onward. For shrinking cities of all sizes, the migratory surpluses in the peripheries began to strongly decrease from 1990 onward, followed by a slight revival between the last two censuses. These evolutions illustrate tendencies that can be applied to all French cities. However, unlike other urban areas, in the case of shrinking ones, the growth of peripheries did not compensate for the population decline of the centers. Douai-Lens epitomizes this: after having experienced a strong migration deficit of its center since 1968, its periphery has also been affected by outmigration since the 1990s. In France as in the rest of Europe, cities are therefore declining because the growth of peripheries has not compensated the shrinkage of urban centers. In fact the population growth of the peripheries of French urban areas has slowed down since the 1990s.

Table 2: Evolution of the natural and migration rates (per thousand inhabitants) according to the size of declining urban areas (with population decline between 1975 and 2007)

Table 2: Evolution of the natural and migration rates (per thousand inhabitants) according to the size of declining urban areas (with population decline between 1975 and 2007)

Population ranks (2007, in thousands of inhabitants)
Center
Natural increase
Migration rate
Periphery

Understanding the socio-economic evolutions: the diversity of urban shrinkage processes

  • 19 AHC with Euclidean distance. To facilitate the comparison, the evolution of each indicator between (...)

41Several studies have demonstrated that demographic evolutions could not reflect the multidimensional nature of urban shrinkage (Fol, Cunningham-Sabot, 2010), and that it is necessary to combine indicators to grasp the interactions between demographic and socio-economic evolutions (Wolff and Wiechmann, 2010). Our suggested classification of French shrinking cities19 attempts to understand the diversity of processes of urban shrinkage, by using a wider range of indicators linked to residential preferences, to age structure and population ageing as well as to socio-economic dynamism:

  • Migration rates 1975-1999.

  • Natural increase 1975-1999.

  • Evolution of the percentage of population over 65 years old between 1975 and 1999.

  • Evolution of the percentage of population between 15 and 24 years old between 1975 and 1999.

  • Evolution of the unemployment rate 1975-1999.

    • 20 Because the indicators concerning employment and unemployment in 2007 are not comparable with those (...)

    Evolution of the activity rate 1975-199920.

42This classification enabled us to distinguish five types of shrinking cities:

  • 21 The expression “demographic change” is commonly used in European literature to designate joint proc (...)

Type 1: Cities impacted by demographic change21 (13 urban areas)

43The urban areas of this type are losing part of their population since 1968 or 1975 and are located in regions with an ageing population in France (the Center, inland Brittany and South-west). They are characterized by a strong ageing process and the relatively significant loss of young people. The natural rates, which are clearly negative since 1975, confirm this evolution, which is further emphasized by slightly negative migration rates since 1968. In these urban areas that experience demographic ageing, activity rates have tended to slightly decrease (since 1968), in parallel to slightly increasing (but relatively low) unemployment rates. The cities of Montluçon, Mazamet and Douarnenez are examples of this type.

Figure 6: Type 1 profile: Cities affected by demographic change

Figure 6: Type 1 profile: Cities affected by demographic change

Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Proportion of young people
Migration balance
Proportion of older people
Natural rate

Type 2: Cities lacking attractiveness and young people (15 urban areas)

44This type includes urban areas mainly located in central and eastern regions in France. The majority of them have been losing their population since 1982. Although the proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) has somewhat increased there, these cities are especially characterized by a significant drop of the proportion of young people (15-24 years old). This can be explained by negative migration flows occurring after 1975. Since then, the natural rate has struggled to extend and suffers from migration deficits. Since 1975, the activity rate has reached a low level and unemployment has gradually increased. Although the natural rates remain negative, this type of city has demonstrated signs of stabilization since 1990, whether through the evolution of their migration rates or through their activity rates. This type includes cities such as Le Havre, Le Creusot and Thiers.

Figure 7: Type 2 profile: Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Figure 7: Type 2 profile: Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Proportion of young people
Migration balance
Proportion of older people
Natural rate

Type 3: Cities lacking activities / employment (27 urban areas)

45These cities are more numerous; they are located in the center-east part of France or scattered over the whole country. Most of them have been losing part of their population since 1982. They are concerned by a relatively weaker ageing process than in other types. The loss of young people is less intense but continuous and increasing between 1990 and 1999. Migration deficits were especially significant between 1975 and 1990. These urban areas have experienced a strong decrease of activity rates since 1975 and continuously increasing unemployment rates. Cities such as Saint-Dizier, Tulle or Sedan are examples of this category.

Figure 8: Type 3 profile: Cities lacking activities / employment

Figure 8: Type 3 profile: Cities lacking activities / employment

Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Proportion of young people
Migration balance
Proportion of older people
Natural rate

Type 4: Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit (6 urban areas)

46Urban areas in this type are situated in the eastern part of France. They are enduring important and uninterrupted population losses since 1975, even 1968, accompanied by population ageing. The decrease of the proportion of young people is significant since 1982 due to migration deficits as early as 1968, which intensified after 1982. These migration losses can reinforce natural deficits (despite a stabilization of the latter between 1982 and 1990). From 1975 onward, activity rates decreased and unemployment rates rose, but these indicators stabilized during the 1990s, which seems to reveal a less depressed labor market. Cities like Forbach, Creutzwald and Thionville are part of this category.

Figure 9: Type 4 profile: Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Figure 9: Type 4 profile: Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Proportion of young people
Migration balance
Proportion of older people
Natural rate

Type 5: Cities affected by structural unemployment (8 urban areas)

47This type of urban areas is located in the northern part of France. Almost all of these cities are characterized by a continuous population decline since 1975, even 1968. The ageing process and the decrease of the proportion of young people in the whole population are moderate. The migration deficits, which were very important at the beginning of the period, slowed down after 1975. The activity rate gradually decreased to a low level. The unemployment rate is very high and intensifies over the period. The most emblematic examples of this category are Valenciennes and Douai-Lens.

Figure 10: Type 5 profile: Cities affected by structural unemployment

Figure 10: Type 5 profile: Cities affected by structural unemployment

Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Proportion of young people
Migration balance
Proportion of older people
Natural rate

Figure 11: Distribution of the different types of declining cities

Figure 11: Distribution of the different types of declining cities

Cities affected by demographic change
Cities lacking attractiveness and young people
Cities lacking activities / employment
Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit
Cities affected by structural unemployment
Population in urban areas in 2007

Source: INSEE, 2010
Design/ Elaboration: Manuel Wolff
UMR Géographie-cités

Conclusion

48With this study, we are able to assert that urban shrinkage appears as a relatively restricted phenomenon in France, both in terms of population losses and of the number of urban areas concerned. Shrinking cities in France represent mainly former industrial and mining cities with very specialized industrial profiles, which did not manage their conversion toward other activities. However, this phenomenon tends to spread, especially in the lower ranks of urban hierarchy. Small urban areas are thus highly affected; this observation would be even greater if this study had taken the evolution of small cities outside urban areas into consideration, as this was done by Paulus (2004).

49Although urban shrinkage in France is basically driven by migration dynamics, peri-urbanization cannot be the only factor to explain this. In shrinking cities, the demographic growth of urban peripheries does not make up for the loss of population in the centers. It is therefore long term phenomena of migration which are at stake, with tendencies that prevail on a national scale, such as the movements from the north to the south of the country.

50The phenomenon of urban shrinkage is not new and was already observed in France in the 1970s. The most affected cities are those which suffer from a structural crisis with long-term impacts on their demographic and economic dynamics. However, these cities affected by structural shrinkage are rare in France and we have observed a variety of processes leading to shrinkage. These processes combine demographic and economic factors, according to configurations that depend on local and regional contexts. This diversity is what makes the phenomenon of shrinking cities interesting to study as it reveals how local and global dynamics are intertwined (Albecker, 2010; Audirac et al., 2010; Baron et al., 2010; Buhnik, 2010; Cunningham-Sabot and Fol, 2010; Audirac et al., 2012; Fol, 2012; Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2012; Roth, 2012). The notion of “city careers” (Stadtkarrieren), developed and applied to shrinking cities by German researchers, which could also be translated into « socio-economic trajectories » of cities, can be used to analyze the complexity and diversity of processes (Bernt et al., 2010).

51Shrinking cities are also a challenge for urban policies. This phenomenon contributes to the growing gap between a “winning” France, to cite Benko and Lipietz, and an emptying France. What is thereby surprising is that politicians at a national level are very little concerned about this issue. It is certain that French shrinking cities are mainly small sized and that they do not play an important part in the national economy. Yet, they raise vital issues about urban planning and land use. The reform of public policies had a large impact on small and medium sized cities that often harbored public services such as hospitals, courthouses and fire stations. Redesigning the distribution of public services led to the closure of maternities and courthouses, “greatly disturbing how these cities worked” (Taulelle, 2010). Shrinking cities challenge the territorial cohesion of the country by raising now more than ever issues of governance at all spatial levels. They thus question the role of the government in France in its territorial disengagement, with the renewal of legal, health and army maps, and in its financial withdrawal that leads to the reduction of grants to local authorities. This disengagement of the government, which had already begun before the last financial crisis, is taking place in France and in the rest of Europe, and requires to debate territorial solidarity and a governance in charge of all territorial levels. It articulates both a specific nuance in the Anglo-Saxon world between politics (power games and political rivalry between various stakeholders) and policy (the implementation of policies) (Cunningham-Sabot, 2012).

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Annexe

Urban area

Name of urban area

Annual population variation 1975-2007 (%)

Socio-economic type of shrinking urban area

Type of trajectories of shrinking urban areas

196

Fécamp

-0,01

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent shrinkage

175

Chaumont

-0,01

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

151

Cognac

-0,01

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

343

Lillebonne

-0,01

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

258

Saint-Amand-Montrond

-0,02

Cities affected by demographic change

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

208

Lunéville

-0,03

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

78

Nevers

-0,03

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

338

Orthez

-0,04

Cities affected by demographic change

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

142

Saumur

-0,05

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

33

Béthune

-0,05

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

303

Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire

-0,05

Cities affected by demographic change

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

188

Eu

-0,06

Cities lacking activities / employment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

247

Penmarch

-0,06

Cities affected by demographic change

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

93

Saint-Chamond

-0,06

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

322

Rethel

-0,07

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

329

Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne

-0,07

Cities lacking activities / employment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

248

Chauny

-0,07

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

27

Le Havre

-0,09

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Recent shrinkage

305

Paimpol

-0,09

Cities affected by demographic change

Discontinued shrinkage

70

Charleville-Mézières

-0,09

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent shrinkage

318

Péronne

-0,1

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

198

Tulle

-0,1

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

251

Lourdes

-0,1

Cities affected by demographic change

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

300

Avallon

-0,11

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent shrinkage

333

Saint-Pol-de-Léon

-0,11

Cities affected by demographic change

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

330

Migennes

-0,11

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Recent shrinkage

183

Flers

-0,13

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

238

Remiremont

-0,14

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

126

Moulins

-0,14

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

181

Verdun

-0,15

Cities lacking activities / employment

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

11

Douai-Lens

-0,16

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Discontinued shrinkage

187

Bar-le-Duc

-0,16

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

272

Issoudun

-0,17

Cities affected by demographic change

Recent regrowth after shrinkage

72

Roanne

-0,18

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

182

Vitry-le-François

-0,19

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

45

Montbéliard

-0,19

Cities lacking activities / employment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

19

Valenciennes

-0,21

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

123

Cambrai

-0,23

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

215

Montereau-Fault-Yonne

-0,23

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Long-term shrinkage

270

Gray

-0,23

Cities lacking activities / employment

Long-term shrinkage

65

Maubeuge

-0,24

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Discontinued shrinkage

73

Forbach

-0,24

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Discontinued shrinkage

301

Saint-Girons

-0,24

Cities affected by demographic change

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

74

Saint-Quentin

-0,24

Cities lacking activities / employment

Long-term shrinkage

299

Luxeuil-les-Bains

-0,26

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

319

Saint-Claude

-0,26

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

229

Tergnier

-0,28

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Long-term shrinkage

274

Creutzwald

-0,28

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Discontinued shrinkage

163

Épernay

-0,29

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

192

Sedan

-0,3

Cities lacking activities / employment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

246

Romilly-sur-Seine

-0,31

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

262

Thiers

-0,32

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

294

Langres

-0,34

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

255

Aulnoye-Aymeries

-0,35

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

25

Saint-Étienne

-0,37

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

170

Vierzon

-0,38

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

50

Thionville

-0,38

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

100

Montluçon

-0,39

Cities affected by demographic change

Long-term shrinkage

220

Mazamet

-0,41

Cities affected by demographic change

Long-term shrinkage

263

Douarnenez

-0,47

Cities affected by demographic change

Long-term shrinkage

130

Saint-Dizier

-0,47

Cities lacking activities / employment

Discontinued shrinkage

287

Fourmies

-0,51

Cities affected by structural unemployment

Long-term shrinkage

212

Autun

-0,53

Cities lacking activities / employment

Long-term shrinkage

143

Montceau-les-Mines

-0,6

Cities affected by demographic change

Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s

153

Le Creusot

-0,64

Cities lacking attractiveness and young people

Discontinued shrinkage

325

Bresse

-0,68

Cities lacking activities / employment

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

267

Esch-sur-Alzette (L)-Villerupt

-0,78

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

160

Longwy

-0,85

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s

261

Decazeville

-1,18

Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit

Long-term shrinkage

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Notes

1 The Wende (literally: turning point) designates the transformation process in former GDR in the early 1990’s.

2 The group “Shrinking Cities” was established during a project funded by the Kulturstiftung des Bundes and allowed for the scientific popularization of the issue. Led by Philip Oswalt’s architecture firm, this project aimed at analyzing four urban agglomerations greatly affected by urban shrinkage: Detroit, Halle/Leipzig, Ivanovo (Russia) and Manchester/Liverpool. Together with researchers and professionals from each of the four countries, the group conducted research and organized a travelling exhibition that unexpectedly proved immensely popular. The objective was to comprehend the factors and the effects of shrinkage but also to develop innovative urban policies for these cities and to give them publicity. The group wanted to dispose of the negative stereotypical image of shrinkage to accentuate their potential, especially through strategies based on cultural activities.

3 The authors of this article are members of the Shrinking Cities International Research Network, founded in 2005 within the Center for Global Metropolitan Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. This international research network was constituted on the theory that Shrinking Cities constitute a common issue in very different countries and that the hypothesis of the globalization of urban shrinkage processes can thereby be made. Thirteen countries are currently represented (Australia, United-States, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Poland, Spain, Portugal, United-Kingdom and France) with over fifty participating researchers.

4 Philippe Aydalot (1985) believes that this model attributes a permanent cyclical aspect to a dated phenomenon: urban crisis. Moreover, according to him, this theory mixes suburbanization, the crisis of large cities and the general crisis of urbanization in one common explanation and analysis of the process.

5 Turok and Mykhnenko’s analysis is based on a morphological definition (continuous built-up area) and focus on cities of over 200,000 inhabitants. 

6 Turok and Mykhnenko considered in this category the cities that experienced a growth phase in the 1970’s and 1980’s, followed by a phase of shrinkage in the 1990's and 2000's. This category includes 28 Russian cities, 17 Ukrainian cities, 8 Polish cities and 6 Romanian cities.

7 The cities in this category have only experienced shrinkage since the 2000’s. This category includes 18 Russian, 6 Ukrainian and 6 Polish cities.

8 The analysis is based on an administrative definition and includes 258 cities with population greater than 50,000 inhabitants (European Commission, 2007).

9 The authors of this article are members of the European COST program, dedicated to declining cities in Europe and entitled “Cities Regrowing Smaller”. This network gathers researchers from 26 European countries, which illustrates the challenges posed by this issue for both research and public policies.

10 Cities with less than 10,000 inhabitants.

11 This study was performed before the latest census results have been released which used the new delineation of urban areas in 2010.

12 For a detailed explanation on the choices of the terms used to designate the process of urban shrinkage, see Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot’s works on this issue (Cunningham-Sabot, to be published).

13 The smallest declining urban area (minimum threshold) is Lillebonne, with 11,274 inhabitants in 2007.

14 The biggest declining urban area (maximum threshold) is Douai-Lens with 546,294 inhabitants in 2007.

15 In their study on the residential attractiveness of the 100 largest French cities, Alexandre et al. (2010) showed that, among the 60 cities with a migration deficit, almost half of them are experiencing population decline.

16 Measured by the evolution of population between 1990 and 2009 in 506 urban units. The study therefore deals with a different time period.

17 AHC in Euclidean distance.

18 For Europe, Baron et al. (2010) highlighted certain cases such as Rotterdam and Leipzig where the negative evolution of the peripheries exceed the growth of the centers.

19 AHC with Euclidean distance. To facilitate the comparison, the evolution of each indicator between 1975 and 1999 is indicated in standardized values.

20 Because the indicators concerning employment and unemployment in 2007 are not comparable with those of earlier time periods, the classification was only based on variables between 1975 and 1999.

21 The expression “demographic change” is commonly used in European literature to designate joint processes of fertility decline, natural rate decline and population ageing.

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Table des illustrations

Titre Figure 1: Annual population variation of urban areas between 1975 and 2007
Légende Annual population variation of urban areas between 1975 and 2007 (%) Population of urban areas in 2007
Crédits Source: INSEE, 2010 Design: Manuel Wolff Elaboration: Manuel Wolff, Hélène Roth UMR Géographie-cités
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-1.png
Fichier image/png, 259k
Titre Figure 2: Evolution of natural and migratory rates (1968-2007)
Légende Types of population dynamics in declining urban areas according to natural and migratory factors Natural rates / Migration rate sPopulation of urban areas in 2007
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-2.png
Fichier image/png, 383k
Titre Figure 3: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories (index 100 in 1975)
Légende Recent regrowth after shrinkageRecent shrinkageDiscontinued shrinkageVery strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990sVery strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980sLong-term shrinkagePopulation of urban areas in 2007
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-3.png
Fichier image/png, 289k
Titre Figure 4: Population variation in declining urban areas: six types of trajectories
Légende Interrupted shrinkage (n=11; 16%) Recent regrowth after (n=5; 7.2%) Discontinued shrinkage (n=23; 33.3%) Very strong shrinkage in the 1980s and 1990s (n=10; 14.5%) Very strong shrinkage in the 1970s and 1980s (n=10; 14.5%) Long-term shrinkage (n=10; 14.5%)
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-4.png
Fichier image/png, 47k
Titre Figure 5: Population variation in centers and peripheries of declining urban areas, between 1962 and 2007
Légende Population variation in urban centers and the peripheries of declining citiesCentersPeripheries
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-5.png
Fichier image/png, 619k
Titre Table 2: Evolution of the natural and migration rates (per thousand inhabitants) according to the size of declining urban areas (with population decline between 1975 and 2007)
Légende Population ranks (2007, in thousands of inhabitants)CenterNatural increaseMigration ratePeriphery
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-6.png
Fichier image/png, 44k
Titre Figure 6: Type 1 profile: Cities affected by demographic change
Légende Employment rate Unemployment rate Proportion of young people Migration balance Proportion of older people Natural rate
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-7.png
Fichier image/png, 10k
Titre Figure 7: Type 2 profile: Cities lacking attractiveness and young people
Légende Employment rateUnemployment rateProportion of young peopleMigration balanceProportion of older peopleNatural rate
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-8.png
Fichier image/png, 10k
Titre Figure 8: Type 3 profile: Cities lacking activities / employment
Légende Employment rate Unemployment rate Proportion of young people Migration balance Proportion of older people Natural rate
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-9.png
Fichier image/png, 36k
Titre Figure 9: Type 4 profile: Cities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficit
Légende Employment rate Unemployment rateProportion of young peopleMigration balanceProportion of older peopleNatural rate
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-10.png
Fichier image/png, 9,9k
Titre Figure 10: Type 5 profile: Cities affected by structural unemployment
Légende Employment rate Unemployment rate Proportion of young people Migration balance Proportion of older people Natural rate
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-11.png
Fichier image/png, 10k
Titre Figure 11: Distribution of the different types of declining cities
Légende Cities affected by demographic changeCities lacking attractiveness and young peopleCities lacking activities / employmentCities with an ageing population and a strong migration deficitCities affected by structural unemploymentPopulation in urban areas in 2007
URL http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/docannexe/image/28033/img-12.png
Fichier image/png, 285k
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Pour citer cet article

Référence électronique

Manuel Wolff, Sylvie Fol, Hélène Roth et Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot, « Shrinking cities: measuring the phenomenon in France », Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography [En ligne], Aménagement, Urbanisme, document 661, mis en ligne le 12 avril 2017, consulté le 19 mars 2024. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/28033 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.28033

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Auteurs

Manuel Wolff

Humboldt University of Berlin, Landscape Ecology Lab, Dept. of Geography, Germany
manuel.wolff@geo.hu-berlin.de

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Sylvie Fol

Université Paris 1 Panthéon–Sorbonne, UMR 8504 Géographie – Cités, France
sfol@univ-paris1.fr

Articles du même auteur

Hélène Roth

Université Blaise Pascal, EA 997 CERAMAC, France
Helene.Roth@univ-bpclermont.fr

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Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot

École Normale Supérieure, France
sabot@ens.fr

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Le texte seul est utilisable sous licence CC BY 4.0. Les autres éléments (illustrations, fichiers annexes importés) sont « Tous droits réservés », sauf mention contraire.

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