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The role of flooding in urbanization: the case of the reconfiguration of the urban trajectories in Dakar, Senegal

Le rôle des inondations dans l'urbanisation : le cas de la reconfiguration des trajectoires urbaines à Dakar, au Sénégal
Papa Gueye Sow, Stéphanie Dos Santos, Attoumane Artadji et Cheikh Samba Wade

Résumés

Face à la recrudescence des risques climatiques, Dakar a connu entre la fin des années 1980 et le début des années 2000 des inondations récurrentes touchant fortement les zones urbaines. Après les graves inondations de 2005, les autorités sénégalaises ont adopté le Jaxaay Plan, visant à passer d’une logique de réaction à une politique de prévention et de réduction des risques, axée sur la réinstallation permanente et la restructuration urbaine. À partir d’une méthodologie mixte combinant télédétection (pour l’analyse des changements d’occupation du sol à Guédiawaye et Jaxaay-Parcelles) et enquêtes qualitatives (55 récits et 2 focus groups), l’étude montre que le Jaxaay Plan a profondément reconfiguré les dynamiques urbaines de la banlieue dakaroise, favorisant une urbanisation rapide des zones périurbaines. Toutefois, en implantant les quartiers de réinstallation dans une zone encore exposée aux inondations, le Jaxaay Plan a paradoxalement accru la vulnérabilité des ménages relogés aux risques hydriques.

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Introduction

1In the context of the intensification of extreme climate-related events (IPCC, 2022), towns are particularly vulnerable owing to rapid population growth, and soil sealing and often to poor urban planning (Cissé, 2022; Dos Santos et al., 2019; Monteiro et al., 2022; Quenault et al., 2011). The analysis of climate-related risks in the urban environment has thus become a major issue in scientific research, with numerous studies that have sought to investigate the socio-spatial transformations and policies which result from them (Henderson et al., 2014; Hung et al., 2024.

2In the social sciences in particular, the notion of urban vulnerability has been deployed to seek to understand the impacts of climate-related events (floods, droughts...) that have unequal effects on populations and urban areas (Allarané et al., 2023; Kita, 2017). The levels of exposure to these events may indeed be disproportionate according to the economic resources of the populations, their place of residence, the types of dwelling and of land use, and the provision of infrastructure (Dos Santos et al., 2023; Hsu et al., 2021; Tamru, 2023; Zahnow et al., 2025). Urban vulnerability is also linked to the capacity for response and adaptation to climate-related risk in urban environment, which relates to the notion of urban resilience.

3Urban resilience is understood here to mean the actions and practices deployed to mitigate the impact of climate-related events and to adapt sustainably to risk in the towns (Courtial-Sabatier, 2022; Meerow et al., 2016). These actions and practices can take different forms depending on the urban space and the stakeholders involved (governments, technical partners, local communities, etc.). In France, for example, the governance of urban flooding risk (Rioust, 2012) has undergone changes in the conception of management policies, progressing from a "fight against" approach to a "learn to live with" approach (Franqueville, 2023, p.15).

4In this perspective, extreme climate-related events may be seen not as isolated phenomena, but as a dynamic whole requiring the implementation of policies of adaptation in the town. These policies which call for new, more resilient forms of urban planning are often materialized as emergency projects for the (re-)development of the urban space (Courtial-Sabatier, 2022), and the resettlement of the populations (Murru & Saïd, 2021). These transformations have an impact on the urban trajectories, understood here as the socio-historical evolution of the spatial, social and economic transformations of a city according to political, economic, environmental, etc., influences. (Pumain, 2021)

  • 1 Which means in the local language (Wolof) a vast uninhabited wilderness (Leclercq, 2020). The neigh (...)

5Dakar – the capital of Senegal – has seen a recurrence of flooding since the end of the 1980s (Diongue, 2014). The recurrence of flooding in Dakar is linked, among other things, to rainfall, rising groundwater levels, and, most significantly, rapid and poorly planned urbanization. This urbanization, which accelerated after the country's independence in 1960, resulted in displacement of the population from the city to the outskirts of Dagoudane-Pikine (Vernière, 1973) and development of informal settlements in the Niayes1, an area consisting of depressions, lowlands, and lakes that once played an essential role in the natural collection and storage of rainwater (Descroix, 2018). However, the drying up of this wetland in the Niayes due to droughts in the 1870s and 1980s encouraged informal settlement without the prior establishment of planning and sanitation infrastructure. Consequently, the regular return of rainfall following prolonged periods of drought has resulted in recurrent flooding in these informal neighborhoods. These factors are further compounded by rising groundwater levels and discharge of domestic wastewater (Nanitelamio-Charvin, 2021). Between 1988 and 2008, 40% of the new arrivals in Dakar settled in wetlands where the risk of flooding is high, thereby increasing vulnerability to flooding, mainly in Pikine and Guédiawaye (World Bank, 2010).

6A sequence of annual flooding events from urban runoff, some more severe than others, have occurred since the beginning of the years 2000 (Nanitelamio-Charvin, 2021). In response, the public authorities have introduced a succession of policies to address this phenomenon (Bottazzi et al., 2019). However, these policies which mainly involved one-off and reactive actions such as the pumping out of run-off water in the flooded neighborhoods and the temporary resettlement of flood-impacted inhabitants in public buildings, have proved ineffective (GFDRR, 2014). As a result, flooding has become more frequent and intense, as in the case of the 2005 floods, which exposed thousands of people to unsafe conditions and displaced hundreds of households in the working-class neighborhoods of Pikine and Guédiawaye (Thiam, 2011).

7The floods of 2005 marked a major turning point in the governance of climate-related risk in Dakar with the deployment by the State of the Jaxaay Plan. The aim of this program was two-fold: to restructure the flooded neighborhoods in the suburbs (Pikine and Guédiawaye) and to resettle 3 000 flood-impacted households on the outskirts of the city (Keur Massar). In addition to this program of actions, the Jaxaay Plan also constituted a political vision promoted by the public authorities to sustainably solve the problems of flooding, not through one-off reactive actions, but by means of policies for the prevention and mitigation of the risks of flooding (Schaer et al., 2018). This marked a break with the management policies that had been deployed hitherto.

8Thus, if it is clear that at Dakar flooding gives rise to new modes of urban planning and land use through policies of adaptation to climate-related risk, the identification of the socio-spatial dynamics on the basis of which they may influence the organization of the urban space remains obscure. This leads us on to the following question: to what extent do the floods shape the urban trajectories in Dakar? It should be noted that with the Jaxaay Plan, the challenge for the public authorities was not to combat flooding but rather to adapt the urban space to the risks.

9Thus, the aim of this presentation is to analyze how the policies of prevention and reduction of flood risks influence the urban trajectories in Dakar. In the first part, we shall focus on the transformations of the urban landscapes of the neighborhoods evacuated by the households which have been resettled at Pikine and Guédiawaye. Then, we shall map the changes in the urban dynamics of the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles which have benefitted, among other things, from the construction of the Jaxaay Plan resettlement neighborhoods. Finally, we shall analyze the risks of flooding at Jaxaay-Parcelles as consequences resulting from the policy of the Jaxaay Plan.

Methods and Data

Tools and methods:

10We have carried out field surveys in two phases. The first phase was carried out during the period June to November 2023 and the second during the period June to July 2024. The field survey was focused on three (3) of the eight (8) resettlement neighborhoods of the Jaxaay Plan which are part of the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles, located in Keur Massar department in Dakar region. These are neighborhoods u11A, u11B and u21, represented in orange in illustration 1.

11It should be stressed that the Jaxaay Plan neighborhoods are grouped in two spatial entities: Jaxaay 1 (shown in red) and Jaxaay 2 (shown in mauve). Neighborhoods u11A and u11B are part of Jaxaay 1 and neighborhood u21 of Jaxaay 2. These neighborhoods which were created as part of Jaxaay Plan for the resettlement of flood-impacted households offer a suitable framework for analyzing the influence of the policies of prevention and reduction of the risks of flood on the urban trajectories in Dakar.

Illustration 1 - Location of the study areas

Illustration 1 - Location of the study areas

Source: Data GADM & ANAT & DTGC. Realized by authors, 2025.

  • 2 According to the authors, the life story is a subjective reconstruction of an individual's past lif (...)

12This study combines fieldwork and cartographic analysis. The fieldwork included observations and surveys consisting of biographical interviews, focus groups, and semi-structured interviews. The biographical interviews (Demazière, 2007), following the life story model proposed by McAdams (2008) and defined by Bertaux & Singly (1997)2, were conducted with household heads or representatives, neighborhood delegates, and leaders of local associations in neighborhoods U11A, U11B, and U21. The focus groups, organized according to Onwuegbuzie et al. (2009), brought together residents of U11B for collective discussions. Participant selection in both surveys was based on two criteria: having experienced flooding and having been resettled due to flood impacts. In addition, semi-structured interviews were conducted with officials from technical departments in charge of urban planning, drainage, and flood management in Dakar, as well as with local authorities in Jaxaay-Parcelles.

13In total, a corpus of 77 individuals was mobilized, including 55 heads of households, 39 of whom were in u11B neighborhood, 20 in u11A neighborhood, and 14 in u21 neighborhood, for biographical interviews (table 1), and 18 individuals, including heads of households, local association leaders, public figures, and young people for focus group discussions (table 2). There were in addition four people interviewed at the scale of Dakar (table 2).

Table 1 - Demographic characteristics of people interviewed on the basis of life stories

Life stories

Gender = Female (29)

Gender = Male (26)

Total

Age = 20 - 34

Age = 35 - 49

Age = 50 - 64

Age = 65 - 79

Age = 20 - 34

Age = 35 - 49

Age = 50 - 64

Age = 65 - 79

Narrators

1

7

15

6

4

8

7

7

55

Source: Authors.

14The population is composed of 42 women and 35 men. In the biographical interviews, the age range of the people interviewed was 20-34 and 65-79 years old. The 50-64 age range is the most strongly represented (22 people) and the 20-34 age range is the least represented (five people). However, for focus groups and interviews, age is not an important indicator, because in the former case, the conditions and collective format made it irrelevant, and in the latter, age had no influence on the analysis of the information.

Table 2 - Characteristics of the persons surveyed in focus groups and interviews

Gender

Survey type

Focus groups

Interviews

Female

12

1

Male

6

3

Total

18

4

Source: Authors.

15In addition to these field surveys, we carried out observations in the original home neighborhoods of the households resettled at Jaxaay-Parcelles. With two informants, we carried out an observation visit at Médina Gounass, one of the original home neighborhoods in Guédiawaye. This visit enabled us to observe the urban landscapes and to take GPS readings.

Data processing

16The study combined qualitative, quantitative, and geospatial approaches to analyze urban and environmental dynamics in Jaxaay-Parcelles. The qualitative data, consisting of interviews and focus groups, were transcribed, translated, and coded using NVivo (versions 14 and 15) for thematic analysis. The quantitative data were drawn from the 2013 and 2023 national population censuses conducted by the ANSD, focusing on demographic changes within Jaxaay-Parcelles and the Jaxaay Plan resettlement neighborhoods. The 2002 census was excluded, as the locality of Jaxaay did not yet exist.

17For the spatial analysis, a 5 m resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) from GEOSEN was used, along with georeferenced basin limits provided by ANAT to identify depression zones where retention basins were later built. The QGIS 3.26.1 shading tool was applied to visualize slope gradients, using four 6 m elevation classes. The approach builds on Sy (2019) and Diouf (2013), who respectively used 3 m and 5 m DTM scales to identify flood-prone zones in Dakar’s suburbs.

18The geospatial data consisted of Spot 4 (2001-01-17), Spot 5 (2011-03-07), and Sentinel-2 (2021-03-28) images. The Spot images underwent radiometric correction, while the Sentinel-2 image did not need to be corrected as it had already been corrected prior to acquisition. The choice of 2001 allowed us to observe the initial occupation of the area before the implementation of the Jaxaay Plan (starting in 2006); the choice of 2011 allowed us to observe the evolution of occupation after the first operations to resettle affected households in the social housing provided by the Jaxaay Plan, and the choice of 2021 allowed us to analyze trends in the urban dynamics of Jaxaay-Parcelles before and after the advent of the Jaxaay Plan policy. All images were georeferenced to enable a comparative analysis of changes in land use before and after the implementation of the Jaxaay Plan. We used the supervised classification method. This type of satellite image classification allows spectral information (bands) to be translated into thematic classes (land cover classes).

Table 3 - Characteristics of the land use classes adopted

Class

Description

Urban occupation

Built-up area, residence buildings, infrastructures, public facilities, roads

Bare land

Bare soil, vacant, unbuilt plots, marshy soil

Vegetation

Vegetation cover, farming fields, farms, trees, grasses, grassy area, natural area

Source: Authors.

19The maps were also validated using a confusion matrix and Kappa indices, which gave an accuracy of 0.93 for 2001, 0.91 for 2011, and 0.88 for 2021. Remember that the closer the value is to 1, the better the accuracy, and for a map to be validated, its Kappa index value must be greater than 0.75. Mapping was carried out using QGIS 3.26.1 and ArcGIS Pro software, and the results were validated with GPS points collected in 2023 and Google Earth Pro imagery.

Statistical processing:

20The calculation of the rate of expansion enabled us to observe the patterns of change in the land use classes at Jaxaay. The rate of expansion (T) allows detection and comparison of the spatial evolution of each land class use for each year.

It is calculated on the basis of the formula: T = S1 – S2

21Given that S1 represents the percentage of the surface area of a land use class of the most recent year and S2 the percentage of the earliest year. If the value of (T) is positive, that signifies a progression of the land use class; if the value of (T) is negative, that signifies a regression of the class, and if the value of (T) is close to zero, that signifies a relative stability of the land use class (Aimée et al., 2018). The calculation of these statistics was done using the software Excel.

22For population data, we used statistics from the fourth national population census of 2013 and the fifth of 2023 conducted by the National Statistics and Demographic Agency (ANSD). Based on these demographic data, calculating the part (in percent) allowed us to highlight the difference in population growth between the resettlement neighborhoods of the Jaxaay Plan and other neighborhoods in the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles over the period 2013-2023. This part refers to the relative proportion of the population of each neighborhood compared to the total population of the municipality for each year. It allows us to map and highlight the weight and population growth of each neighborhood in relation to the total population of the municipality. We used Excel software to calculate the rate using the following formula:

Part (%) = Population of neighborhood / total population of the municipality x 100

Results

23We may recall that the aim of this study is to analyze the influence of flood management policy on the urban dynamics of Dakar, with a focus on the policy of the Jaxaay Plan. This policy was mainly dedicated to two actions: the construction of eight (8) resettlement neighborhoods at Keur Massar to rehouse the inhabitants impacted by the floods of 2005, and the restructuring of the neighborhoods flooded or at risk of flooding evacuated by these households at Pikine and at Guédiawaye (illustration 2).

Illustration 2 - Location of the neighborhoods concerned by the Jaxaay Plan

Illustration 2 - Location of the neighborhoods concerned by the Jaxaay Plan

Source: Data GADM & ANAT & DTGC. Realized by authors, 2025.

24The socio-spatial dynamics analyzed in the following sections will thus concern these two categories of neighborhood (restructured flooded neighborhoods and resettlement neighborhoods).

Reconfiguration of the urban landscape in neighborhoods of origin of resettled victims

25The operations to restructure flooded or flood-prone neighborhoods in Pikine and Guédiawaye departments carried out under the Jaxaay Plan have involved two main phases: restructuring flooded areas considered still habitable after the major floods of 2005, and revitalizing low-lying wetlands in the Niayes considered unsuitable for habitation. The (re)development operations focused on rehabilitating precarious and informal housing by installing rainwater drainage systems, building secondary roads (paved or surfaced), public spaces (sports fields, parks), and regulating land use.

26The revitalization of the Niayes consisted, on the one hand, of “de-urbanizing” the low-lying areas that were regularly flooded by resettling the inhabitants who lived there and, on the other hand, of building water basins to retain, stock and evacuate runoff water in in these freed-up areas. These water basins have two essential functions. First, they collect and retain runoff water in one place to prevent it from overflowing into homes. Secondly, they are devices that enable the collected water to be discharged to large bodies of water that act as natural outlets (sea, lakes, etc.) using electric pumping machines and interconnected underground channels.

Illustration 3 - Water basin built in Medina Gounass (Guédiawaye)

Illustration 3 - Water basin built in Medina Gounass (Guédiawaye)

Source: Authors (photo taken on 21/11/2023 in Médina Gounass).

27It should be recalled that the Niayes are characterized by low-lying areas, often located below sea level with a water table that rises to the surface in places (Dasylva & Cosandey, 2005). The rising groundwater level, known as the Thiaroye groundwater table, due to the return of rainfall after the droughts, the massive discharge of wastewater, and its under-exploitation for drinking water supply due to its high nitrate content (Aguiar et al., 2010), is increasingly making neighborhoods vulnerable to flooding. Water basins are therefore built at these lowest areas to reduce the flood risk. These Niayes areas have thus regained their natural function of drainage and collection of rainwater (illustration 4).

Illustration 4 - Location of water basins built in freed-up areas with the resettlement of households

Illustration 4 - Location of water basins built in freed-up areas with the resettlement of households

Source: Data ADM & ANAT & GEOSEN. Realized by authors, 2025.

28Illustration 4 shows that all water basins were built in the lowest-lying areas, located in elevations range between 0 and 6 meters above sea level. It should be noted that water basins have been built in several municipalities in Pikine and Guédiawaye under the Jaxaay Plan, but here we are focusing on the municipalities of origin of the households we surveyed in the Jaxaay resettlement neighborhoods. These are the water basins built in the municipalities of Medina Gounass, Djidah Thiaroye Kao, Wakhinane Nimzatt, North Yeumbeul, and Malika, located in the Niayes, where the topography is flat with elevations ranging from -0.5 to 24 meters.

29In addition, these restructuring operations reconfigured the urban landscapes, understood here as the entities characterizing the land use of an urban space. We have thus undertaken a case study of Medina Gounass – the main area the flood-impacted households came from. Almost half of the surveyed households, 24 out of 55, said they came from the neighborhoods of Medina Gounass which were located in the regularly flooded low-lying areas. Because of the floods and the restructuring operations deployed under the Jaxaay Plan, the urban landscapes of these neighborhoods were reconfigured.

Illustration 5 - Reconfiguration of the urban landscapes after 2005 floods in Medina Gounass

Illustration 5 - Reconfiguration of the urban landscapes after 2005 floods in Medina Gounass

Source: Google Earth images. Edited by author, 2025.

30Illustration 5 shows a retrospective view of the urban landscapes of Medina Gounass and how they changed before and after the 2005 floods, using satellite images from Google Earth. The three satellite images were captured over the same area at different times (2005, 2007, and 2023). They show how these urban landscapes have changed over the years. The image taken in 2005 shows the flooded housing in 2005. The image taken in 2007 shows the start of construction of water basins after households were relocated and housing demolished under the Jaxaay Plan. The image taken in 2023 (during field observations), shows an expansion and increase in the capacity of these basins to collect, stock and evacuate runoff water. It should be noted that these basins were designed primarily to collect only rainwater, but in the field we observed illegal connections that allow domestic wastewater to be discharged into the basins. The reconfiguration of urban landscapes in Medina Gounass has thus resulted in the expansion of water basins at the expense of built-up areas.

31In addition to the development of water basins, urban restructuring operations have also focused on the installation of sanitation systems, the construction of secondary and tertiary roads, and the development of public spaces (sports fields, recreational parks, etc.). This involved the rehabilitation of precarious and irregular housing. They also focused on land regularization in order to prevent occupation of areas identified as no aedificandi. These various developments have reduced flooding, which is no longer a recurring problem in these suburbs of Dakar (Pikine and Guédiawaye).

Patterns of change in the socio-spatial dynamics in Jaxaay-Parcelles

32In this section, we shall analyze the changes in the socio-spatial dynamics of Jaxaay, based on the construction of the Jaxaay Plan neighborhoods. Let us recall that these neighborhoods were built in the peri-urban zone of Dakar. In 2006, the date of the launch of the Jaxaay Plan project, the zone was mainly constituted of outlying farmland used for market gardening, and natural spaces of vegetation and savannah. Nevertheless, there was already human occupation with a few dwellings scattered around the space, notably the Cité Gendarmerie, a neighborhood dating from around 2002.

33The construction of the Jaxaay Plan neighborhoods and the resettlement of the households which were the beneficiaries of it thus contributed to boosting demographic growth and sustained urban development in the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles and the neighboring municipalities which became the outer suburbs of Dakar.

Illustration 6 - Land use land change dynamics in Jaxaay-Parcelles municipality

Illustration 6 - Land use land change dynamics in Jaxaay-Parcelles municipality

Source: Data ANAT & GADM, Spot 4 & 5 and Sentinel-2 images. Realized by authors, 2025.

  • 3 This figure reflects recent administrative changes: Jaxaay-Parcelles became a municipality followin (...)

34The municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles underwent a period of accelerated urban expansion between 2001 and 2021. As illustrated in Figure 73, the urban occupation class represented by the red area demonstrates a marked increase in density during the specified period. In 2001, urban occupation was negligible in this area, which was predominantly composed of farmland and vegetation. In 2021, there was a substantial decrease in areas of farmland and vegetation, as a result of urban expansion.

Illustration 7 - Changes in the expansion rate of the land use classes

Illustration 7 - Changes in the expansion rate of the land use classes

Source: Land use class expansion rate calculated by authors, 2025.

35The period between 2001 and 2011 saw an expansion of 44.92% in urban areas in Jaxaay-Parcelles, with this growth predominantly resulting from the loss of vegetation (-77.44%). This expansion can be attributed to the construction of the eight Jaxaay Plan neighborhoods (2006-2011), which aimed to resettle households affected by the 2005 floods in Pikine and Guédiawaye. In the period between 2011 and 2021, urban expansion continued at a reduced rate (27.30%), primarily attributable to a series of individual private housing developments, while unbuilt land decreased by -30.25%. Over the period under consideration (2001–2021), urban occupation increased by 72.22%, with a corresponding decline of vegetation of 74.49%. These trends illustrate how the Jaxaay Plan flood mitigation and resettlement policy contributed to the rapid spatial transformation of Jaxaay-Parcelles, shifting it from predominantly vegetated land to a largely urbanized landscape.

36Furthermore, the demographic disparities observed between resettlement neighborhoods and other neighborhoods in Jaxaay-Parcelles relative to the municipal population during 2013-2023 period demonstrate the impact of the Jaxaay Plan on urban sprawl. The resettlement of households affected by the 2005 floods, initiated by this policy, has encouraged urbanization in this area on the outskirts of Dakar. According to the latest available statistics from the ANSD national population census, the population of the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles was estimated at 27,920 inhabitants in 2013 and 63,145 inhabitants in 2023. Using these data points, a mathematical calculation was performed to determine the percentage share of each neighborhood.

Illustration 8 - Part of neighborhoods relative to population weight of Jaxaay-Parcelles in 2013-2023

Illustration 8 - Part of neighborhoods relative to population weight of Jaxaay-Parcelles in 2013-2023

Source: National population census statistics ANSD 2013 & 2023, disintegrated by authors, 2025.

37Illustration 8 highlights two distinct areas: the “resettlement neighborhoods”, framed by the purple rectangle, which correspond to the first urban settlements resulting from the Jaxaay Plan, and the “other neighborhoods”, framed by the green rectangle, which correspond to the extensions of the resettlement neighborhoods. Cité Gendarmerie neighborhoods is an exception because it was first occupied by in 2004 by the national Gendarmerie cooperation, before the Plan Jaxaay neighborhoods. The graph shows the demographic disparities between resettlement neighborhoods, which in 2013 had the largest shares of the municipality's population (e.g., 16.96% in Unit 17A), and newer neighborhoods, which had the smallest shares (e.g., 2.01% in Unit 09). In 2023, these demographic trends had more or less stabilized, although resettlement neighborhoods continued to experience steady population growth. Resettlement neighborhoods still account for the largest share of the population (9.88% in Unit 17A), while extension neighborhoods have more moderate growth, with the largest share estimated at 4.33% in Unit 10. These disparities in demographic characteristics are particularly related to the resettlement of affected households.

Jaxaay-Parcelles facing flood risks

38Here, we have tackled the flooding that is increasingly frequent in the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles. We have placed particular emphasis on the case of the vulnerable neighborhoods of the Jaxaay Plan where the households, more than a decade after their resettlement following the floods of 2005, are again experiencing flooding that they consider as a phenomenon that is "long-lasting" and "stressful".

"We are unfortunately still exposed to the risks of flooding and we can't sleep well because we think that at any moment there may be floods. And we haven't the means to cope with it." (extract from the life story of Déguène M., age 54, head of household resettled in Jaxaay, field survey 2023).

39In u11A and u11B neighborhoods – the most exposed among the resettlement neighborhoods according to local authorities – flooding from rainwater runoff and rising groundwater levels has been recurring for several years and the risks are increasingly worrying for residents. According to the households surveyed, water can stagnate in the streets and in houses located in low-lying areas throughout the year (rainy season and dry season). During the rainy season, they point out, water stagnates due to the combined effect of rainwater and groundwater, and during the dry season, water stagnation is mainly exacerbated by the rise in groundwater levels. As in most areas of the Dakar region, the groundwater level is also rising in Jaxaay-Parcelles. This rising groundwater level is due to the combined effect of rainfall during the rainy season, wastewater during the rainy and dry seasons, and the under-exploitation of these groundwater resources due to pollution, as mentioned earlier in this document. This continuous recharge of the aquifer without significant exploitation of the resource regularly promotes the rise of groundwater to the surface. In Jaxaay-Parcelles, residents and local authorities report that flooding is a real risk during the dry season due to this rise in the water table, even though flooding is more severe during the rainy season due to the combination of two factors: rainwater runoff and the rise in groundwater levels.

  • 4  Narrator uses a figure of speech called “personification” to explain the constant rise of groundwa (...)

"It only takes one corner of a house's yard drying out for another to be filled with water. Over there in the corner, water is constantly coming up from under the barrel. You know it should be dry, but it's always full of water, and you know that when it rains, you can't tell where the water is coming up. But in the house here, every day, the water rises to the surface, the house cries every day, it's like eyes crying4. Every day it's damp, and living in a damp house, you risk not being able to sweep it for a long time if it doesn't dry out. [...] We’re really sitting on water. Sometimes, if you look closely, you can even see the tiles moving because of the rising groundwater." (extract from the life story of Fatima D., age 60, head of a household resettled at Jaxaay, field survey 2023).

40The personification of the house that “cries”, used as a figure of speech by the narrator, shows how rising groundwater level is a daily reality for households in Jaxaay-Parcelles.

  • 5 For more detailed information on soil characteristics in Senegal, refer to works by Khouma, 2002.

41In Jaxaay-Parcelles, flood risks are exacerbated by interrelated natural and anthropogenic factors. There are the morphological and topographical characteristics of the environment, which is located in a low-lying area consisting mainly of hydromorphic soils. Hydromorphic soils are characterized by a more or less impermeable layer that limits water infiltration and promotes surface stagnation, thereby increasing the risk of flooding5. There are also shortcomings in urban planning, notably a lack of sanitation infrastructure (for example, at the time of our field surveys, the resettlement neighborhoods had no rainwater or wastewater drainage systems, and the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles had only one water basin built in Unit 09).

42Thus, sanitation, which was one of the most important components of the Jaxaay Plan and one of the greatest aspirations of the resettled households, is not yet effective in the resettlement neighborhoods.

“Jaxaay is facing flooding due to climate change on the one hand, and the way in which the project [Jaxaay Plan] was implemented on the other. Indeed, there is talk of Parcelles Assainies [Jaxaay-Parcelles-Assainies] when there is no sanitation system in Jaxaay to date. There are no structures or collectors, let alone drainage networks; there is nothing. [...] So you can see that there is still a lot of work that has not been done under the Jaxaay Plan.” (extract from an interview with Thiamasse F., municipal councilor in Jaxaay-Parcelles town hall).

43This poor sanitation encourages the discharge of domestic waste into the streets, which in turn leads to the permanent recharge of the groundwater table, which then rises to the surface, increasing the risk of flooding. Added to this is the inadequacy of the few existing public infrastructures, such as a road built to facilitate transport between Jaxaay 1 and Jaxaay 2, which paradoxically increases the risk of flooding because it has no runoff drainage systems (the road shown in blue in illustration 9).

Illustration 9 - Topographical characteristics of Jaxaay-Parcelles and the Jaxaay road

Illustration 9 - Topographical characteristics of Jaxaay-Parcelles and the Jaxaay road

Source: Data DGPRE & ANAT. Realized by authors, 2025

44Illustration 9 shows that, among the resettlement neighborhoods, neighborhoods u20, u19, u17A, and u17B (Jaxaay 2), with elevations ranging from 15 to 21 meters, are located on higher ground compared to neighborhoods u11A, u12B, and u11B (Jaxaay 1), with elevations ranging from 9 to 15 meters. This terrain is not in itself the cause of the flooding. It is combined with the inadequacy of certain transport infrastructure, such as the road colored blue on the map, and the lack of rainwater and wastewater drainage systems.

45According to the households surveyed, before the road was built, runoff water crossed the track without overflowing, but after the road was built, significant volumes of water runoff with the asphalt and regularly overflow into surrounding housing. Thus, water flowing from the Jaxaay 2 neighborhoods, shown in purple on the map and located higher up, towards the Jaxaay 1 neighborhoods, shown in red, overflows and causes flooding. This explains why neighborhoods u11B and u11A are more exposed than neighborhoods u19 and u20, for example.

Illustration 10. Illustration of the road at Jaxaay 1, flooded by runoff water

Illustration 10. Illustration of the road at Jaxaay 1, flooded by runoff water

Source: Authors (photo taken on 24/07/2023 at Jaxaay 1).

4633 of the 55 households surveyed indeed report that the construction of this asphalted road among without water drainage systems has increased flood frequency for two main reasons. Firstly, owing to the fact that it was after the construction of this read that they began to observe flooding in u11A and u11B neighborhoods. Secondly, it is along this road that the waters from Jaxaay 2 neighborhoods transit, causing overflowing water in their neighborhoods.

Discussion

47Public policies addressing climate-related risks have profoundly restructured urban spaces, primarily through the resettlement of vulnerable populations and the development of resilient infrastructure, processes that collectively reshape urban trajectories. In Ha Tinh (Vietnam), for example, the Ha Tinh Project combined the relocation of 250 flood-affected households with the construction of flood-resilient infrastructure, leading to substantial spatial reconfiguration (Quérard, 2024). Over 2001-2021 period, the municipality of Jaxaay-Parcelles underwent rapid urbanization, driven by the construction of resettlement neighborhoods. However, this urban growth was further stimulated by Jaxaay-Parcelles' proximity to the urban centers of Diamniadio (PUD) and Lac Rose, as well as structuring infrastructure such as the toll highway and the TER regional express train, which has encouraged significant demand for housing and development of services.

48Analysis of urban restructuring operations in the flooded neighborhoods of Pikine and Guédiawaye (original neighborhoods) and the resettlement of flood victims in Jaxaay-Parcelles de Keur Massar (resettlement neighborhoods) reveals new social and territorial inequalities fostered by the Jaxaay Plan policy. The original neighborhoods – under the Jaxaay Plan and other complementary programs such as PROGEP – have benefited from sanitation infrastructure and water drainage systems that reduced the recurrence of flooding, while the resettlement neighborhoods are paradoxically faced with recurring flooding due in particular to a lack of sanitation infrastructure and water drainage systems. It is therefore difficult for resettled households to understand why they are being relocated to another area because of flooding without the prior installation of sanitation infrastructure to prevent the risk of flooding. Some of the households we surveyed expressed their desire to return to their original neighborhoods, which they now consider to be well drained and protected against flooding. This situation demonstrates the importance of sanitation infrastructure, which brings together various stakeholders involved in flood management in vulnerable neighborhoods on the outskirts of Dakar (Leclercq, 2023), and calls into question the effectiveness and sustainability of the Jaxaay Plan policy, which had been questioned by some authors from the outset (Hungerford, 2013; Thiam, 2011).

49Furthermore, infrastructure developments that increase flood risks, such as the road built in Jaxaay 1, which most residents consider to increase vulnerability to flooding, reveal the inconsistencies of public policies which, in seeking to reduce urban vulnerabilities, may cause or reinforce other. Hungerford et al. (2019) showed, through a study on Jiddah Thiaroye Kao (Pikine), that the construction of a water basin to reduce flood risks exacerbated public health problems, with the proliferation of mosquitoes and pollution of the local environment.

50Resettlement policies implemented in response to extreme climate-related events can paradoxically worsen the living conditions of affected populations by generating new social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities. In Dakar, under the Jaxaay Plan, households displaced by the 2005 floods were resettled in flood-prone areas, thereby remaining exposed to the same hazard. A similar situation occurred in Mozambique, where populations relocated after the 2000, 2001, and 2007 floods in the Zambezi basin faced drought conditions in their resettlement sites, exacerbating their difficulties given their dependence on agriculture (Stal, 2010). These cases illustrate that resettlement programs are often designed as emergency responses, with limited consideration of long-term adaptation and community needs. In Jaxaay-Parcelles, the absence of planned drainage infrastructure, despite its inclusion in the original project design and financial contributions from residents, highlights the deficiencies in urban planning and risk management.

51Furthermore, the exposure of the town of Jaxaay to flooding is similar to the situation in Tawfekh Yaakaar, another town built by the government in Tivaouane Peulh-Niague (Rufisque) after the 2012 floods to resettle households from flooded neighborhoods in the suburbs of Dakar. This re-housing project is also facing flood risks, mainly due to a lack of sanitation infrastructure. In contrast, the situation in Jaxaay and Tawfekh Yakaar resettlement projects contrasts with that of the APIX resettlement project, another town created in 2009 in Tivaouane Peulh (Rufisque) to resettle households expropriated from their homes, particularly as part of the construction of the Dakar-Diamniadio toll highway. The APIX resettlement project is a more integrated model, with a functional sanitation infrastructure and a structured road network, improving resilience to flood risks and the living environment. These differences reflect inequalities in the implementation of resettlement policies, where the quality of housing depends heavily on the mode of governance, financing, and the level of infrastructure integration in projects.

Conclusion

52Since the late 1980s, Dakar has faced recurring floods almost every year. Despite multiple public initiatives, most have proven ineffective. Following the floods of 2005, the government launched the Jaxaay Plan, which aimed to prevent and sustainably reduce flooding. This policy focused on two main objectives: restructuring the flooded or flood-prone neighborhoods of Pikine and Guédiawaye and resettling households affected by flooding in Jaxaay (Keur Massar), thereby promoting new forms of urbanization in the suburbs of Dakar. However, a few years after their creation, the resettlement neighborhoods are facing flooding due to the physical characteristics of the environment, planning failures, and a lack of sanitation infrastructure, thus increasing the vulnerability of resettled households. Meanwhile, the neighborhoods they left behind benefited from sanitation infrastructure and planning, reducing the risk of flooding. This situation highlights the social and territorial disparities caused by the Jaxaay Plan and shows the limits of this policy.

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Notes

1 Which means in the local language (Wolof) a vast uninhabited wilderness (Leclercq, 2020). The neighborhoods of Pikine and Guédiawaye are located in the Niayes area, a dune system that runs parallel to the coastal strip of the great coast, extending from Dakar to Saint-Louis. The formation of the dune field is attributed to the interplay of "shifting (white) dunes, semi-fixed (yellow) and fixed (red) dunes, interconnected by inter-dune depressions where the water table is in close proximity to the surface" (Diongue, 2014, p. 47).

2 According to the authors, the life story is a subjective reconstruction of an individual's past life recounted in the framework of a sociological investigation, which provides a basis for linking personal experiences and the logic of social situations (Bertaux & Singly, 1997).

3 This figure reflects recent administrative changes: Jaxaay-Parcelles became a municipality following the creation of the Keur Massar department in 2021. Before that, it was part of Jaxaay-Parcelles-Niakoul Rab, and in 2001, the area belonged to the municipality of Bambilor. These administrative shifts account for the differences observed in the 2001, 2011, and 2021 maps.

4  Narrator uses a figure of speech called “personification” to explain the constant rise of groundwater in her house.

5 For more detailed information on soil characteristics in Senegal, refer to works by Khouma, 2002.

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Table des illustrations

Titre Illustration 1 - Location of the study areas
Crédits Source: Data GADM & ANAT & DTGC. Realized by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-1.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 200k
Titre Illustration 2 - Location of the neighborhoods concerned by the Jaxaay Plan
Crédits Source: Data GADM & ANAT & DTGC. Realized by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-2.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 174k
Titre Illustration 3 - Water basin built in Medina Gounass (Guédiawaye)
Crédits Source: Authors (photo taken on 21/11/2023 in Médina Gounass).
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-3.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 190k
Titre Illustration 4 - Location of water basins built in freed-up areas with the resettlement of households
Crédits Source: Data ADM & ANAT & GEOSEN. Realized by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-4.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 240k
Titre Illustration 5 - Reconfiguration of the urban landscapes after 2005 floods in Medina Gounass
Crédits Source: Google Earth images. Edited by author, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-5.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 150k
Titre Illustration 6 - Land use land change dynamics in Jaxaay-Parcelles municipality
Crédits Source: Data ANAT & GADM, Spot 4 & 5 and Sentinel-2 images. Realized by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-6.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 194k
Titre Illustration 7 - Changes in the expansion rate of the land use classes
Crédits Source: Land use class expansion rate calculated by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-7.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 98k
Titre Illustration 8 - Part of neighborhoods relative to population weight of Jaxaay-Parcelles in 2013-2023
Crédits Source: National population census statistics ANSD 2013 & 2023, disintegrated by authors, 2025.
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-8.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 149k
Titre Illustration 9 - Topographical characteristics of Jaxaay-Parcelles and the Jaxaay road
Crédits Source: Data DGPRE & ANAT. Realized by authors, 2025
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-9.png
Fichier image/png, 268k
Titre Illustration 10. Illustration of the road at Jaxaay 1, flooded by runoff water
Crédits Source: Authors (photo taken on 24/07/2023 at Jaxaay 1).
URL http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/docannexe/image/30941/img-10.jpg
Fichier image/jpeg, 497k
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Référence électronique

Papa Gueye Sow, Stéphanie Dos Santos, Attoumane Artadji et Cheikh Samba Wade, « The role of flooding in urbanization: the case of the reconfiguration of the urban trajectories in Dakar, Senegal »EchoGéo [En ligne], 74 | 2025, mis en ligne le 31 décembre 2025, consulté le 07 mars 2026. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/30941 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/15prh

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Auteurs

Papa Gueye Sow

Papa Gueye Sow, papagueye.sow@ird.fr, Territorial dynamics and development LEÏDI Laboratory, Gaston Berger University, Saint-Louis, Senegal et Population Environment Development Laboratory, Institute of Research for Development, Aix-Marseille University, France

Stéphanie Dos Santos

Stéphanie Dos Santos, Population Environment Development Laboratory, Institute of Research for Development, Aix-Marseille University, France

Attoumane Artadji

Attoumane Artadji, Population Environment Development Laboratory, Institute of Research for Development, Aix-Marseille University, France

Cheikh Samba Wade

Cheikh Samba Wade, Territorial dynamics and development LEÏDI Laboratory, Gaston Berger University, Saint-Louis, Senegal

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