1Islands, often viewed as unique demographic laboratories, offer valuable insights into population dynamics [Baldacchino, 2008; King, 2009; Espínola, Cravidão, 2014]. The Portuguese archipelagos of the Azores and Madeira, with their distinct historical, cultural and geographical features, provide compelling case studies.
2The specific attributes of each archipelago, in terms of size and internal diversity, have shaped their demographic trajectories, influencing patterns of growth, migration, and population structure [Brito, 1994; Silva, 1988/89]. The later demographic transition in the Azores compared to Madeira [Rocha, 2013, 2015; Oliveira, 2004], coupled with fluctuations in migration [Rocha and Ferreira, 2010; Espínola, 2022], underscores the pivotal role of migration in driving population dynamics in these insular territories. While some literature has highlighted the varied dynamics shaping island societies [Rocha and Ferreira, 2010; Rocha 2013], the focus on migration patterns within the Portuguese and Spanish outermost regions has revealed intriguing disparities. For instance, while both sets of islands have experienced a shift from emigration to immigration, the impact of migration on the Azores and Madeira, especially when compared to the Canary Islands, has been notably different [Marie and Rallu, 2012; Jerez-Darias, Domínguez-Mijuca, 2024].
3This study aims to delve deeper into these trends, with a particular focus on migration, to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the complex demographic landscapes of the Azores and Madeira in recent decades. The research adopts a comparative approach, examining both island regions in relation to mainland Portugal, with a particular focus on the demographic trends observed during the first two decades of the 21st century. The focus on this most recent analysis is a key contribution of the paper, providing an updated perspective on the most recent demographic developments in these regions.
4The archipelagos of Madeira and the Azores, located in the North Atlantic, form a portion of the territory of Portugal (figure 1). They occupy 3,135 km² of the 92,225 km² of the national territory, representing approximately 3.4% of the country's total area. The archipelagos are home to 487,000 of Portugal's 10,343 million inhabitants, or 4.7% of the population (INE, 2021).
5The Autonomous Regions of the Azores and Madeira, the two Portuguese island regions, have a special status that gives them political, administrative and financial autonomy from the central government. This status was first granted by the Portuguese Constitution in 1976 in a response to the geographical, social and economic diversity of the national territory. In the European Union, these island regions have their own framework and are classified as outermost regions (European Union, 2016). The vulnerability of the islands is a persistent and transversal dimension due to their discontinuity and peripheral position in relation to the mainland [Rocha, 2013]. Consequently, their demographic evolution reflects challenges and specificities. On the one hand, the dynamics of island populations show the continuity of long-term trends; on the other hand, they reveal the characteristics of the post-demographic transition, the disruptions brought about by the integration into a globalised world and the constraints of small populations.
6While the primary focus of this study is an analysis of the current demographic dynamics in Madeira and the Azores, a comprehensive understanding of the islands' geographical setting and historical demographic patterns is crucial for a full comprehension of the complexities of the present situation. This is followed by an examination of the principal aspects of the demographic evolution of the island populations, including their dynamics, population structures, and mobility. The study also presents demographic statistics and other indicators provided by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE).
7The islands of Madeira and the Azores, both with volcanic origins, exhibit different physiognomies due to their varying latitudes. This results in different rainfall patterns and amounts. Additionally, the age of each island and volcanism type also contribute to these differences.
8The Madeira archipelago is situated at a latitude between 30° and 33°N, approximately 1,000 km south-west of Lisbon and 800 km from the north-west coast of Africa. The archipelago is comprised of three principal islands: Madeira (the largest, with an area of 736 km² and which gave the archipelago its name), Porto Santo (50 km north-east of it) and the uninhabited islets of Desertas and Selvagens, totalling 801.1 km². The island of Madeira is characterised by a rugged orography, with peaks reaching heights of up to 2,000 meters and imposing coastal cliffs and deep ravines. In contrast, the more arid and flattened Porto Santo’s landscape is the result of heavy erosion (figure 2).
Figure n.º 2 - Madeira archipelago
Map: Authors
9The Azores archipelago is situated between 36° 55' and 39° 43' north latitude and 25° and 31° west longitude, at the convergence of the mid-Atlantic ridge and the Gibraltar-Azores fracture zone. The distance from the west coast of mainland Europe is approximately 1,600 km, while the distance from Madeira is around 1,000 km and from Bermuda is 3,000 km. The nine Azorean islands cover an area of 2,334 km2, varying from the 759 km2 of the largest island, S. Miguel, to the 17 km2 of the smallest, Corvo. The archipelago is divided into the western group (Flores and Corvo), the central group (Terceira, Graciosa, São Jorge, Faial and Pico) and the eastern group (São Miguel and Santa Maria), which includes the Formigas islands. Pico island has the highest point in Portugal, reaching an altitude of 2,351 meters (figure 3).
Figure n.º 3 - Azores archipelago
Map: authors
10The Portuguese islands are part of the European Union territory, caring the status of outermost region. The Azores act as Europe's westernmost frontier, assuming strategic importance due to the size of its exclusive economic zone and as a strategic connection point between America and Europe. From a biogeographical point of view, the Azores and Madeira are part of the Macaronesia region, along with the Canary Islands and Cape Verde.
11In the 15th century, the archipelagos of the Azores and Madeira, along with the Canary Islands, constituted the first systematic attempts to occupy overseas space within the context of European overseas expansion. As border areas between the Old and New Worlds, new societies were forged here, particularly in Madeira and the Azores, both unpopulated at the time, resulting in very particular political, social and economic configurations.
12The inhabitants of the Atlantic archipelagos were a diverse population. In the case of Madeira, the contingent was essentially Portuguese, with a high proportion from the North of the country and the Algarve. The proximity to North Africa and the urgent need for labour rapidly led to the use of forced labour, which is estimated to have been around 10% of the population at the beginning of the 16th century [Pinto and Rodrigues, 2013]. In the Azores, the Portuguese contingent was supplemented by the Flemish and, here too, there was a high presence of slaves, many of whom were Moorish. In both cases, the foreign communities were not insignificant, particularly the English, French, and some Italian republics, which were fuelled by trade.
13From a political standpoint, the archipelagos had been an integral part of the Kingdom of Portugal since the mid-16th century. In Madeira the city of Funchal (1508) has always been the capital. Angra do Heroísmo (1534), on the island of Terceira, was the political capital of the Azores until 1828.
14With the definitive establishment of liberalism in Portugal (1834), administrative districts were created, forming those of Ponta Delgada, Horta and Angra do Heroísmo in the Azores, and Funchal in the Madeira archipelago. Finally, in 1976, the Autonomous Regions of Madeira and the Azores were established, with Ponta Delgada becoming the political capital of the Azores.
15The islands were relatively marginal to the metropolis, although their geographical position - especially that of the Azores - gave them centrality as hubs for people, goods and cultures. The archipelagos were soon linked to the Americas, Northern Europe and Asia by the armadas of the Indies (The Indian Run), which were obliged to harbour at the Azores on their return journey. Therefore, due to the peripheral situation of mainland Portugal, the islands had important links with other geographies, which is also why their migratory history differed from that of the mainland.
16Another point of convergence between Madeira and the Azores was the economic plan designed by the Portuguese crown in which the archipelagos were intended to specialize in a particular exportation. Sugar cane made Madeira's fortune in the 15th and 16th centuries, supplying European markets with quantity and quality. After that cycle ended, another emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries, that of vines and wine, as a commodity that was widely exported internationally. In the Azores, dye plants (such as heather) were one of the driving forces of the economy in the 15th and 16th centuries, followed by cereals and livestock and, much later, the export of oranges to England. However, this did not exclude more differentiated economic rhythms limited to certain islands, such as livestock farming on the island of São Jorge, or vineyards and wine on the island of Pico. Even so, the island's economy until the mid-20th century was fundamentally agricultural, with low productivity levels and incipient industrial development.
17From a demographic point of view, what was most surprising was the rapid expansion of the population and, therefore, its high circulation. Two factors essentially contributed to this. Firstly, a "low-pressure" demographic system, in which milder mortality generated recurring population surpluses. Secondly, the ability to mobilize these surpluses abroad, mainly to Brazil. Thus, as early as the end of the 16th century, the Azores and Madeira fueled a flow of emigration to Brazil. In addition to individual emigration, whether legal or undocumented, the crown itself played an important role in managing these flows. On its initiative, important contingents of families from the archipelagos were transported to various parts of Brazil, something that would be on the horizon of the authorities until its independence in 1822 [Sousa, 2014].
Figure n.º 4 - Evolution of the population in the Azores and Madeira archipelagos, 1800-2021
Source: Matos & Sousa, 2008 (From 1800 to 1850); INE - Censos (From 1878-2021)
18The data available since 1800 indicates that each archipelago has had its own population trajectory, to a certain extent dissimilar to that of the mainland (figure 4 and appendix I). Until 1878, the Azores grew at a very intense rate, only to begin a phase of stagnation and even population decline until 1920, when they began to grow very intensely up to the 1960s. These increases are related both to the restrictive emigration policies of the United States of America and to the intensification of natural population growth from the mid-1920s onwards (figure 4). From then on, the population began to decline once again, either due to an upsurge in emigration (especially to Canada) or a sharp decrease in natural growth.
19Madeira's trajectory was quite different and simple to describe. Its population grew uninterruptedly from 1800 to 1950/60 due to very significant natural increase that it was able to absorb. Even so, the population increase coexisted with a high migratory flow, first to Brazil, then to the Antilles and Hawaii, and later to Venezuela and South Africa [Oliveira, 2013]. The scale of this growth was such that in 1981 Madeira surpassed the population of the Azores islands, whereas a century earlier it had only accounted for half. This resulted in a population density three times higher than that of the Azores.
20Since 1981, the demographic growth of the archipelagos has been hesitant, practically stationary, and does not diverge markedly from the reality on the Portuguese mainland. The effects of the demographic transition were felt more acutely, resulting in a diminishing natural surplus, until it became negative in the 2010s. It was therefore from the 1980s onwards that the islands began a new demographic trajectory when the ageing and the sharp fall in fertility ceased to generate the usual surpluses which were then channeled through emigration.
Figure n.º 5 - Natural growth rate in the Azores, Madeira and Mainland Portugal
Source: INE - Estatísticas Demográficas 1886-2021
21The 11 Portuguese islands currently host a population of less than half a million individuals, corresponding to 4.7% of the country's resident population in 2021. These islands exhibit a considerable range in population size, with the largest island hosting approximately 250,000 inhabitants and the smallest less than 500 residents. Collectively, the three largest islands (Madeira, S. Miguel and Terceira) account for 89% of the island population.
Table n.º 1 - Population distribution on the islands 2001-2021
Islands
|
Population
|
%
|
2001
|
2011
|
2021
|
Madeira and Azores - 11 islands
|
486 774
|
514557
|
487 157
|
100.0
|
Madeira - 2 islands
|
245 011
|
267785
|
250 744
|
51.3
|
Madeira
|
240 537
|
262302
|
245 595
|
50.3
|
Porto Santo
|
4 474
|
5483
|
5 149
|
1.0
|
Azores - 9 islands
|
241 763
|
246772
|
236 413
|
48.7
|
Santa Maria
|
5 578
|
5 552
|
5 406
|
1.1
|
São Miguel
|
131 609
|
137 856
|
133 288
|
27.1
|
Terceira
|
55 833
|
56 437
|
53 234
|
11.1
|
Graciosa
|
4 780
|
4 391
|
4 090
|
0.9
|
São Jorge
|
9 674
|
9 171
|
8 373
|
1.8
|
Pico
|
14 806
|
14 148
|
13 879
|
2.9
|
Faial
|
15 063
|
14 994
|
14 331
|
3.0
|
Flores
|
3 995
|
3 793
|
3 428
|
0.8
|
Corvo
|
425
|
430
|
384
|
0.1
|
Source: INE - Censos 2001, 2011 and 2021
22The largest island, Madeira, accounts for 50% of the population of the Portuguese islands, while São Miguel and Terceira have 27% and 11% of the inhabitants, respectively. If we consider the next three islands, Faial and Pico (with 3% of the population each) and São Jorge (2%), they collectively account for 96% of the island population.
23Concurrent with the population concentration on larger islands, these insular territories have exhibited greater resilience than the mainland. Despite experiencing population decline in 2021, they managed to maintain a higher population volume compared to 2001, a trend not observed on the mainland. Population fluctuations on islands are highly susceptible to small-scale events and economic and social activity, reflecting the intricate interplay of local socioeconomic contexts.
24The population trends observed in Portugal over the past two decades have been significantly influenced by migratory growth. These trends have been particularly affected by economic crises, with the 2011 crises following the intervention of the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) representing a significant turning point. Subsequently, as was the case globally, the Covid-19 pandemic also had an impact, exacerbating the already weak natural demographic trends and limiting the migratory dynamics as a result of mobility restrictions.
25The natural growth rate in Portugal was relatively low at the beginning of the 2000s, approaching zero, due to the country's low fertility rate (annex II). Nevertheless, the trend has been one of gradual decline, which has worsened and turned negative in 2007. The socio-economic difficulties resulting from the economic crises have had a pervasive impact on Portuguese society. These factors have resulted in a postponement of births, a decline in population inflow and an increase in emigration. The swift response to the changes in living conditions reached its zenith in 2013 and commenced a gradual recovery in 2016 [Golaz, Lefèvre, Véron, 2018]. Initially, this recovery was tentative, but it became increasingly pronounced over time. Despite the recovery, the country's natural growth remains negative and declining, which is accentuating population ageing. The negative figures for 2020-21 are particularly significant due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic [Pimentel, Gomes, 2022]. The fluctuations in migration growth illustrate the country's attractiveness until 2008 and its subsequent retreat and decline after 2011. Following the conclusion of the Troika's involvement and the commencement of the country's socio-economic recovery in 2017, there was a resurgence in migratory growth, driven by the intensification of immigration. It is crucial to acknowledge that despite the imposition of mobility restrictions during the Covid-19 period, there was a notable increase in migration, albeit to a lesser extent than observed in the post-Covid period.
Figure n.º 6 - Unemployment rate in Portugal Mainland, Azores and Madeira 2001 -2021
Source: INE - Employment statistics 2001- 2021
Figure n.º 7 - GDP per capita at constant prices in Portugal Mainland, Azores and Madeira 2001 -2021
Source: INE - National Accounts 2000-2021
26All regions experienced fluctuations in unemployment rates, with the Azores and Madeira exhibiting heightened volatility, particularly during the economic crisis of 2011-2013. A subsequent recovery period happened from 2014 onwards, converging unemployment rates by 2021. However, Madeira consistently demonstrated a higher unemployment rate compared to both the Azores and the mainland, indicative of persistent labour market shortage in the region.
27The socio-economic situation of the islands reflects greater vulnerability, although after the pandemic Madeira experienced one of the most significant increases in GDP in the country (INE, 2024 highlight). The Azores and Madeira continue to lag behind the national average in terms of regional development, although Madeira has made notable progress in recent years. The 2011 economic crisis had a negative impact on both archipelagos, with a more immediate effect in Madeira and a slightly delayed one in the Azores. The latter tend to be in a more fragile economic situation, as can be seen from the evolution of GDP. Income inequality is significantly more pronounced in the Azores compared to Madeira and the mainland. The Gini coefficient, an indicator which measures income inequality, reached approximately 36% in the Azores for the period 2017-2020, while in Madeira and the mainland it was at around 32% (INE, 2021).
28Although studies indicate a reduction in monetary poverty in Portugal [Rodrigues 2024], deprivation indicators reveal persistent challenges, particularly in the insular regions. Post-pandemic, the Gini coefficient demonstrates that the Azores and Madeira continue to exhibit higher levels of inequality, highlighting their greater vulnerability within the national context.
29Comparing the evolution of population growth on the mainland with the two island regions highlight the greater variation in the autonomous regions, particularly in Madeira. The Azores archipelago tends to follow the downward trend observed on the mainland.
30This trend is strongly influenced by the cycles of economic crises, with 2011 marking a turning point in terms of demographic dynamics. In the first decade of this century, the population of Madeira grew more strongly than that of the mainland, but from 2011 the trend was reversed, with a greater loss. Population growth has only recovered in recent years, first in Madeira, following the trend on the mainland, and then in the Azores. Although the 2011 crisis was felt later in the Azores, it persisted and became more pronounced until 2019, only converging with the national trend in 2020.
31A comparison of natural and migratory growth rates shows that migration has been the main driver of population dynamics over the last two decades. While natural growth was close to zero (and with a declining trend), the intensity of migratory movements clearly determines the overall growth trends.
Figure n.º 8 - Total Growth Rate 2001-2020 (%)
Source: INE Estatísticas Demográficas 2001-2020
Figure n.º 9 - Natural Growth Rate 2001-2020 (%)
Source: INE Estatísticas Demográficas 2001-2020
Figure n.º 10 – Migration Growth Rate 2001-2020 (%)
Source: INE Estatísticas Demográficas 2001-2020
- 1 Life expectancy at birth is always lower in the islands than on the mainland. In 2001, the differen (...)
32The decline in natural growth is common to all regions1. Nevertheless, the Azores always show a much higher (and positive until 2012) natural growth throughout the period than the mainland and Madeira. On the other hand, the decline is much more abrupt in Madeira and reaches lower levels than on the mainland from an early stage.
33Several peculiarities can be observed in the increase in the rate of migration. The Azores show a trend in migratory growth that is very similar to that of the mainland, yet characterized by consistently lower values, especially between 2014 and 2020. Madeira, on the other hand, shows a completely different evolution of migratory dynamics: in the first decade it has a much higher positive migratory balance, while after 2011 there is a rapid and sharp reversal, as in the case of natural growth. From the second decade onwards, the migratory dynamics show losses both on the islands and on the mainland, but it is on the mainland that a recovery is first noted, followed later by the Azores.
- 2 In the Azores, at a local, municipal scale, natural dynamics reveal a progressive decline, with a n (...)
34Overall, it can be concluded that over the last two decades the Portuguese islands have mirrored, to varying degrees, the demographic trends on the mainland. However, a more detailed analysis shows that, between 2001 and 2011, the region of Madeira experienced strong population growth because of high migration growth (+9.3% and 8.4% respectively), which is not the case for the archipelago of the Azores and the mainland (with growth of +2.1% and +1.8% and negligible migration of 0.1% and 1.7% respectively). Between 2011 and 2021, the decline is more pronounced in the two archipelagos (- 6.4% and -4.2%), which is also heavily affected by migration losses (- 4.2% and -4.3%), while on the mainland the population decline is less pronounced (- 1.9%) and more due to natural evolution (-2.3%)2. A detailed description for each one of the eleven islands is included in Annex III.
35At the beginning of the 21st century, the population of the islands was much younger than that of the mainland. The young population (up to 15 years old) accounted for around 21% in the Azores and 19% in Madeira, while it reached 16% on the mainland. On the other hand, the elderly (aged 65 and over) accounted for around 13-14% in the island regions, while it was much higher on the mainland (24%).
Table n.º 2 - Population Structures (%) in Portugal Mainland, Madeira and the Azores 2001-2021
Structure
|
Mainland
|
Madeira
|
Azores
|
0-14
|
2001
|
15,8
|
19,1
|
21,4
|
2011
|
14,8
|
16,4
|
17,9
|
2021
|
12,8
|
12,7
|
14,6
|
15-64
|
2001
|
67,7
|
67,2
|
65,6
|
2011
|
65,9
|
68,7
|
69,0
|
2021
|
63,5
|
67,3
|
68,8
|
65 +
|
2001
|
16,5
|
13,7
|
13,0
|
2011
|
19,3
|
14,9
|
13,1
|
2021
|
23,7
|
20,0
|
16,5
|
Source: INE-Censos 2001, 2011, 2021
36Two decades later, the weight of the younger population decreased much more sharply in the islands than on the mainland, but this difference was accompanied by different trends in the other age groups: in Madeira, the percentage of elderly people increased almost as much as the number of young people decreased, while in the Azores both the elderly and the working-age population increased. In 2021, all regions show a pronounced ageing, with the islands having a comparatively younger age structure, especially in the Azores archipelago. This ageing of the islands' population was particularly marked in the last decade, when the proportion of elderly people increased most, and less marked in the first decade, when the decline in the number of young people was still increasing the working-age population.
37In terms of ageing, the percentage of elderly people is always higher on the mainland, with a two-decade gap compared to the Azores and a one-decade gap compared to Madeira. Concerning the proportion of the young population, the Azores are a decade behind the mainland, while Madeira is making faster progress and will be similar to the mainland by 2021.
38Islands have traditionally been places of emigration, and the archipelagos of Madeira and the Azores are no exception. Over the centuries, the Portuguese islands have maintained a close relationship with migration. The nature of this relationship and the types of migration that result from it depending on the role that the islands have played at each moment in history [King 2009]. As previously mentioned, the island of Madeira was "the first test of European colonisation" [Ribeiro, 1989, 761] and since the 15th century, emigration has not ceased to be present in the demography of the Portuguese archipelagos. Madeira's high population density, the asymmetry of its distribution and the physical and human constraints made it difficult to develop the islands, so emigration has always been an "escape valve".
39Many also left the Azores, attracted by new lands, "pushed" by poverty or following earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that destroyed houses and fields. Due to the archipelago’s location and the mobility, emigration to North American countries has been mainly Azorean. Since then, emigration has not stopped, but the improvement of living conditions for the population has contributed to a reduction in the number of emigrants. The exception was the 2011-2013 crisis, when, like the Portuguese mainland, Azoreans and Madeirans left the islands in greater numbers, the former choosing traditional destinations, particularly the United States and, more recently, Bermuda, while the United Kingdom became the preferred destination for Madeirans. The forms of migration are also changing, with permanent family emigration being replaced by temporary or circular migration, which is increasingly individual and adapted to job opportunities and migration projects.
40As data on emigration by region is not published, the intensity of the phenomenon on the islands can only be gauged from the migratory balances. Between 2011 and 2021, the migratory balances were negative in both archipelagos with a similar magnitude (-10,413 in Madeira and – 10,180 in the Azores). Of this balance, more than 80% corresponded to the period between 2011 and 2015, which was characterised by emigration as a response to the economic and social crisis.
41Foreign immigration to the island regions is relatively recent. According to the censuses, at the beginning of the 21st century, less than 3% of the resident population of the Azores was born abroad, while in the Madeira archipelago the proportion was slightly higher (5.3%), with a national average of 6.3%; twenty years later, the proportion had practically doubled in Madeira (9.6%), while in the Azores it had risen to 3.5% (the national figure was 10.5%). When analysing the origins of these flows, the majority come from the American continent, both in the case of the Azores and Madeira, and even more so in the case of the latter, given the importance of American destinations in the emigration of islanders over time. In 2021, there were 24,062 people of foreign origin living in the Madeira region, 20.2% more than in 2011. Of this population, 49.9% was from Venezuela, followed by people from the United Kingdom (8.4%), South Africa (7.5%), Brazil (5.0%), Angola (4.4%) and France (4.0%). In the Azores, there were 8,314 foreign-born residents, practically the same number as in 2011. Of those, 32% came from the United States and Canada, followed by Brazil (14.9%), Angola (11.6 %), Cape Verde and Mozambique (5.4% each) and Germany (4.9%).
Figure n.º 11 - Percentage of foreign-born population in Portugal Mainland, Azores, Madeira 2001-2021
Source: INE-Censos 2001, 2011, 2021
Table n.º 3 – Geographic origine of foreign born (% of total foreigners)
|
2001
|
2011
|
2021
|
|
Azores
|
Madeira
|
Portugal
|
Azores
|
Madeira
|
Portugal
|
Azores
|
Madeira
|
Portugal
|
Europe
|
12,9
|
18,1
|
29,6
|
16,1
|
25,2
|
32,3
|
22,4
|
23,9
|
28,9
|
Africa
|
33,7
|
29,2
|
53,7
|
31,3
|
23,2
|
42,4
|
25,1
|
16,4
|
32,0
|
America
|
51,0
|
51,4
|
13,9
|
48,8
|
49,5
|
21,3
|
48,4
|
58,0
|
31,0
|
Other regions
|
2,4
|
1,3
|
2,8
|
3,8
|
2,1
|
4,0
|
4,1
|
1,7
|
8,1
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Source: INE-Censos 2001, 2011, 2021
42A comparison of the foreign population with resident status reveals a positive evolution between 2000 and 2022, the most recent year for which data is available. However, the observed trends differ between the two archipelagos. The number of foreign residents in the Azores, has doubled. In Madeira, the number of foreign residents has increased almost fivefold (figure 12). This trend is reflected in the proportion of foreigners in the resident population. In 2000, the number of foreigners with residence permits was similar in the two archipelagos, with the proportion of the total population being identical (1%). In 2022, foreigners represented 2.1% of the population in the Azores and 4.7% in Madeira. Notwithstanding this expansion, the proportion of foreigners in the islands remains below that of mainland Portugal (7.7% in 2022). In line with the national trend, there has been a more pronounced increase in the proportion of foreigners since 2017, a trend that is more evident in the Madeira region (figure 13).
Figure n.º 12 - Foreigners with legal resident status in the Azores and Madeira
Source: INE-AIMA/MAI 2000-2022
Figure n.º 13 - Proportion of foreign population with legal resident status in relation to resident population 2008-2022 (%)
Source: INE-AIMA/MAI 2000-2022
43Additional relevant information can be obtained by analyzing at an island level. The proportion of foreign population is more significant on the smaller islands, namely Flores and Corvo, where at the end of the first decade of the 2000s, more than 6% of the resident population was foreign. However, in recent years, the attractiveness of islands such as Faial and Pico have led to an increase in the foreign resident population on these islands. In 2022, approximately 6% of the population of Faial was foreign, while Pico's was at 4% (in comparison to 2.1% of the Azores as a whole). In contrast, the Madeira archipelago exhibited a comparatively high proportion of foreign residents, with approximately 9% of the population of Porto Santo and 4.6% on the island of Madeira in 2022. These figures represent a departure from the regional average of 4.7%.
Figure n.º 14 - Proportion of foreign population by islands of the Azores and Madeira in 2001 and 2021
Source: INE-Censos 2001, 2021
44The importance of migratory dynamics in the two regions can also be measured by the number of residents who declare having lived abroad for at least one year. In 2021, more than a fifth of Madeira's population had lived in another country, and almost 28,500 people arrived in the region in the last 20 years, most of them between 2016 and 2021. In the Azores, this proportion is lower (around 9% of the population will have lived abroad), and the number of arrivals in the region over the last 20 years is more than 9,400 (table 4). In both cases, these figures partially reflect the return of those who emigrated between 2011 and 2015, during the most acute phase of the crisis, which was expected after the recovery of the Portuguese economy from 2016 onwards, and, in the case of Madeira, the arrival of Portuguese and their descendants who emigrated to Venezuela a few decades ago.
Table n.º 4 - Resident population in 2021 who lived abroad for a continuous period of at least 1 year, total and by arrival date
|
Total
|
%
|
By Arrival Period
|
2001-10
|
2011-15
|
2016-21
|
Mainland
|
1 535 691
|
15.6%
|
283 452
|
121 985
|
289 972
|
Azores
|
20 692
|
8.8%
|
4 173
|
1 611
|
3 629
|
Madeira
|
51 711
|
20.6%
|
9 846
|
3 597
|
15 020
|
Source: INE-Censos 2021
45According to the 2021 Census data, about 7% of the Portuguese population changed their municipality of residence compared to the previous year.
46These are individuals who changed their residence between January 2020 and April 19, 2021 - a period significantly marked by the Covid-19 pandemic and encompassing two national lockdowns - experienced a surge in movements to secondary or family residences outside urban areas. Consequently, it remains unclear whether individuals considered these pandemic-induced displacements as permanent changes of residence. Given the lack of specific guidance to the population on this matter during the census operation, the observed values for inter-municipal mobility in 2021 should be interpreted with caution.
47While the balance of inter-municipal mobility is negative on the mainland (-952 persons), it is positive in the Autonomous Regions, with an increase of 635 persons in the Azores and 317 in Madeira.
48The Madeira archipelago has the peculiarity of receiving more people from abroad, a higher proportion than in Portugal and the mainland (around 1.4%), a trend that has continued since the beginning of the century. Regarding the change of residence to another municipality, the Azores have a slightly higher proportion of people who have changed municipality (entered the municipality in which they live), although the number is lower than in Madeira. From 2001 to 2021, there was an increase in residential mobility between municipalities in Madeira (table 5).
Table n.º 5 - Proportion of resident population by place of residence one year before the date of the Census (%)
Place of residence one year before the Census
|
Mainland
|
Azores
|
Madeira
|
In-Migrants from another municipality
|
2001
|
2,4
|
2
|
1,9
|
2011
|
2,6
|
2,4
|
2,3
|
2021
|
7,1
|
6,4
|
6,1
|
Out-Migrants to another municipality
|
2001
|
2,4
|
1,9
|
2
|
2011
|
2,6
|
2,3
|
2,3
|
2021
|
7,1
|
6,1
|
6
|
Net Internal Migration
|
2001
|
0
|
0,1
|
-0,1
|
2011
|
0
|
0,1
|
0
|
2021
|
0
|
0,3
|
0,1
|
Source: INE-Censos 2001,2011, 2021
49Over the past two decades, the Portuguese islands have experienced notable shifts in demographic trends, deviating from the conventional pattern of population growth. However, certain contingencies persist. As Rocha [2013] observed, the demographic evolution of the Portuguese island regions is largely the result of geography [Rocha, 2013: 101]. In Madeira, the greater concentration and proximity to the urban centre, as well as to decision-making centres, resulted in a population dynamic that, in the Azores, was impeded by geographical dispersion. Nevertheless, even in the Azores, it was the larger islands with more substantial urban centres that exhibited the most substantial growth.
50Concurrently, there has been a notable shift in demographic behaviour, with the decline in fertility representing a paradigmatic example. By 2021, the fertility rate in both island regions was lower than that observed on the mainland, representing a significant shift from historical trends where these regions had the highest birth rates in the country.
51There has been a convergence of the demographic patterns of the Portuguese island regions with those of the rest of the country, albeit at different rates. The island of Madeira has undergone a more rapid alignment with the national demographic contours, whereas the Azores have followed a comparatively slower process. Migration has played a pivotal role, influencing both population growth dynamics and ageing patterns. The mobility of people, both in and out of the islands, reflects the connections to the wider world, as well as the local and national socio-economic conditions. This highlights the complexity of the ongoing transformations.
52It is crucial to emphasize the influence of the socio-economic context on population dynamics. In instances where economic indicators are unfavourable, the rate of growth on the islands is lower, resulting in a greater number of population losses and a reduction in retention capacity. This contrast with periods of more favourable economic indicators, during which greater population growth is observed.
53Despite improvements in living conditions, vulnerability persists, as evidenced by the lower life expectancy observed in the islands, particularly in the Azores. Furthermore, the ageing process has accelerated in the islands, though the Azores have experienced a less pronounced ageing phenomenon than Madeira, which has approached the level observed in the mainland. Nevertheless, in 2021, the islands still exhibited one of the youngest populations in Portugal.
54Migration dynamics have become an increasingly significant factor influencing demographic trends, with a notable impact observed in Madeira. The mobility of the population in both archipelagos is indicative of the extent of their connections with the wider world and the contextual conditions that affect the country and the regions in question. The impact of migration varies between islands due to the effects of scale on small populations. Schneider and Schneider [1976] highlight that emigration is a response to economic vulnerability, offering an expedient solution to economic challenges and social setbacks in Portugal.
55Migration has become the primary driver of demographic change in the Portuguese island regions. This phenomenon is reflective of profound socio-economic transformations and modernisation processes. The movement of people, both in and out of a given area, has not only contributed to population growth but also to the ageing of the population. The current demographic characteristics of the islands are directly the result of these modernisation processes and the changes associated with migration.