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The Populations of Mexico

Sylvie Coupleux et Maria-Evangelina Salinas Escobar et François-Olivier Seys

In 2024, Mexico's population has just exceeded 130 million. This figure is part of an uninterrupted period of growth since 1790 and the Villaregigedo census, held on the territory of the Viceroyalty of New Spain, which estimated Mexico's population at 4,636,074. These 234 years of growth, with the exception of the decreasing period 1910-1921, can be divided into two phases. Until the 1930s, growth was slow but steady. At the 1929 census, Mexico had a population of 15.6 millions. It means that the population had multiplied by 3.3 in 140 years, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. It corresponds to the pre-transitional phase of the demographic transition, characterized by a high birth rate and a high death rate. In 1929, the Crude Rates were 43.8‰ and 34.9‰. Around 1930, Mexico began its demographic transition, with the start of the decline in mortality and its very rapid decrease. The Crude Death Rate was already 14.8‰, in 1950 and fell below 10‰ by 1960, resulting in very rapid growth in life expectancy at birth, which gained around 0.5 years each year. The second phase of the demographic transition began in the 1970s, with the start of the fall in the Crude Birth Rate. It stood at 42.1‰ in 1974 and fell to 14.2‰ in 2023. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate falls from 6.5 to 1.6 children per woman. During the transition, the average annual growth rate was 2.2% per year and the population increased 8-times.

Today, Mexico is at a pivotal point in its demographic history. It is in the process of completing its demographic transition and has the post-transitional indicators of a young country [Zavala, 2014]. The total fertility rate has been below 2.1 since 2018, and Mexican women are still having children at a young age, even though the calendar has started to shift since the turn of the century. Life expectancy at birth for both sexes is 76.3 years, a level comparable to Romania or two years less than the United States. The Infant Mortality Rate continues to fall and was 12.4‰ in 2023 [Garcia and Mesle, 2024]. Analyzing demographic dynamics and its spatial dimensions, at this pivotal moment constitutes, the primary interest of this thematic issue.

Mexico was a country of European immigration until the middle of the 20th century and now it has become a country of emigration and transit. Since the 1950s, emigration to the United States has been the main movement [Claderon Bony et al., 2017]. According to the 2010 US census, more than 8 million Mexican citizens live in the United States and almost 32 million people declared themselves to be Mexican-Americans. It represents 10% of the country's population and 2/3 of Latinos [Galindo and Zenteno, 2014]. For a long time it was present exclusively in the south-western states and is now spreading throughout the United States. Since the turn of the century, Mexico has strengthened its position as a transit country for people from the rest of the continent, while it is the only Latin American country with a land border with the United States. The ups and downs of American migration policy have also changed the destination of Mexican emigrants. Mexicans have been arriving in Canada for the last fifteen years, as well as in the European Union, particularly Spain. These emigrants are more socially well-off than those who traditionally went to the United States. In contrast, Mexico is also a country of immigration, albeit on a smaller scale. In 2020, over 1.2 million foreigners were living legally in Mexico, 2/3 of them are US citizens. Most of these immigrants are retired. The remaining 400,000 foreigners are mainly from other Spanish-speaking countries on the continent. There are also 40,000 Europeans, including almost 10,000 French, and a Chinese community is beginning to emerge.

Moreover, internal migration is significant regardless of the scale of analysis. The southern states are more likely to be sending states, while the central and northern states are more likely to be receiving states [Sebille et al., 2023]. At a local level, urbanization has profoundly changed the face of cities, particularly large cities. This has occurred in the traditional way, from the countryside to the cities, but also within the metropolises, with original processes such as the creation of planned housing estates for peri-urbanisation: ‘fraccionamientos’ [Partida Bush, 2014]. Finally, the Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Mexico (ZMVM), with its 21 million inhabitants, is one of the world's largest metropolises. It is marked by its own demographic dynamics, significant internal movements and, above all, major segregation processes [Valette et al., 2022]. The second interest of this issue will be to deal with these migratory issues and their geographical and social aspects.

These demographic figures, whether natural or migratory, conceal major spatial and social disparities. Mexico is a country where social differences lead to different demographic behaviors. For example, at the 2020 census, while the total fertility rate was estimated at 1.9 children per woman, it varied from 2.9 to 1.4 depending on the mother's level of education, from the lowest to the highest [Mier Y Teran, 2014]. It was 2.5 children per woman in localities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants and 1.6 in those with more than 100,000 inhabitants. These disparities in fertility are greater than those observed in Europe. Mortality disparities are on a similar scale, with large differences in life expectancy. At the level of the 32 federal entities, there is a 5-year difference in life expectancy at birth between the states of Chiapas and Nuevo-Leon. In 2024, for these two states, it will be 60.9 years and 74.7 years for men and 76.4 and 81.1 years for women. Moreover, these high disparities at state level are even greater at local level, where segregation is higher than in Europe. Addressing these regional and local disparities will be the third interest of this issue.

The Mexican census also distinguishes between populations according to ethnic group. The first distinction is the language spoken. In 2020, 92.7% of the population declared themselves to be Spanish-speaking. The rest of the population identified themselves as bilingual Spanish and an indigenous or unilingual indigenous language. The 2003 General Law on the Linguistic Rights of Indigenous Peoples recognizes 68 languages, the two most widely spoken of which are Nahuatl and Yucatecan Mayan, both of which are heirs to the languages of the Aztecs and Mayans. The census also asks about ethnic origin, with four possible answers: Euro-descendants, mestizos, indigenous people and Afro-descendants. The role of indigenous communities varies from state to state. For example, indigenous people are concentrated in the southern states of the country, where they account for up to 30% of the population, whereas there are very few in the north. These indigenous people are also more rural and poorer than other Mexicans [Sanchez-Garcia et al., 2021]. Dealing with the economic and social reality of these different communities will be the fourth interest of this issue.

Similarly, articles on the same themes from Central America would be appreciated and evaluated for possible publication.

Timetable

- Deadline for submission of article proposals (title and abstract of approximately 1-2 pages): 1 July 2025

Abstracts may be submitted in French, English or Spanish

- Deadline for submission of articles to the Editorial Board: 1 November 2025

Articles must be submitted in English or French.

- Publication guidelines: https://journals.openedition.org/eps/3344

Contacts

Titles, abstracts and articles should be sent to:

Sylvie Coupleux, Senior Lecturer in Geography, University of Artois

sylvie.coupleux@univ-artois.fr

Maria-Evangelina Salinas Escobar, Professor of Geography at the University of Guadalajara

evangelina.salinas@administrativos.udg.mx

François-Olivier Seys, Professor of Geography at the University of Lille

francois-olivier.seys@univ-lille.fr

Bibliographie

CALDERON BONY Frida, ODGERS ORTIZ Olga, RIVERA-SANCHEZ Liliana, 2017, L'entrelacement des réseaux migratoires et confessionnels dans le champ migratoire Mexique/États-Unis, in Espace, Populations, Sociétés 2017-2.

GALINDO Carlos et ZENTENO René, 2014, La cambiante y constante migración México-Estados-Unidos, Los Mexicanos : un balance del cambio demográfico, dir. Cecilia Rabell Romero, pp. 445-475.

GARCIA Jenny et MESLE France, 2024, Spatial Differences in the Latin American Health Transition, in Espace, Populations, Sociétés 2023/3-2024/1

INEGI, 2023, Seminario la información estadística de la población mexicana en el exterior, disponible en https://www.inegi.org.mx/eventos/2023/innametra/#:~:text=a)%20La%20poblaci%C3%B3n%20mexicana%20residente,millones%2C%20hacia%20el%20a%C3%B1o%202020.&text=b)%20La%20poblaci%C3%B3n%20mexicana%20nacida,a%20Estados%20Unidos%3A%2011.7%20millones.

INEGI, 2025. Indicadores de la población. Consulta realizada el 20 de marzo de 2025, disponible en https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/estructura/.

MIER Y TERRAN Marta, 2014, Pautas Reproductivas : la escolaridad y otro elementos explicativos, Los Mexicanos : un balance del cambio demográfico, dir. Cecilia Rabell Romero, pp. 306-349.

PARTIDA BUSH Virgilio, 2014, De los deplazamientos del campo a la cuidad a los translados intraurbanos, Los Mexicanos : un balance del cambio demográfico, dir. Cecilia Rabell Romero, pp. 389-446.

SANCHEZ-GARCIA C., DEL VAL BLANCO J. et ZOLLA C. (coords.), 2021, Estado del Desarrollo Económico y Social de los Pueblos Indígenas de Michoacán, Mexico PUIC-Secretaría de Asuntos Indígenas, 620p.

SEBILLE Pascal, DEMORAES Florent, GUERIN-PACE France, 2023, Historia migratoria de la población mexicana de hoy: modelos migratorios regionales. Estudios Demográficos Urbanos y Ambientales (Éd.), La Odisea de las Generaciones: de las historias de vida a los territorios, Mexico : El Colegio de México,

VALETTE Jean-François, PECOUT Hugues et GUERIN-PACE France, 2022, Caracterizar las desigualdades territoriales en la Zona Metropolitana del Valle de México a través de la movilidad residencial y cotidiana, in Trace (Travaux et recherches dans les Amériques du centre), pp. 113-153.

ZAVALA Maria Eugenia, 2014, La transición demográfica de 1895-2010, Una transición original ? Los Mexicanos : un balance del cambio demográfico, dir. Cecilia Rabell Romero, pp. 80-114.

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