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Eradicating Child Poverty in Scotland: A Political Goal under Devolution

L’éradication de la pauvreté infantile en Écosse, objectif politique depuis la dévolution du pouvoir
Edwige Camp-Pietrain

Résumés

Lors de la publication de Trainspotting, l’Écosse connaissait l’un des taux de pauvreté infantile les plus élevés du monde occidental. En 2024, ce taux, qui a chuté, est plus faible que dans les autres nations constitutives du Royaume‑Uni. Cet article traite des politiques publiques menées dans le cadre de la dévolution du pouvoir depuis 1999, d’abord liées aux services publics, avant de s’étendre à la protection sociale grâce aux nouveaux pouvoirs du Parlement écossais. Ainsi, la pauvreté infantile constitue l’un des enjeux du débat public, tous les partis politiques cherchant à la réduire, même si le sujet n’échappe pas à l’instrumentalisation politique, entre partisans et adversaires de l’indépendance de l’Écosse.

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  • 1 Poverty used to be based on those who claimed supplementary benefit (income support from the 1980s) (...)

1Thanks to the Welfare State, absolute poverty, i.e. a level of resources needed to sustain physical survival (food, clothes, housing), collapsed in post‑war years. Yet as society became wealthier, some individuals could not keep pace: they were in relative poverty, unable to take part in activities regarded as part of daily life (Alcock, 1997, p. 65). In 1993, when Trainspotting was published, poverty was soaring because of the demise of manufacturing industries, worsened by two decades of free‑market policies under Margaret Thatcher and John Major that cut benefits in real terms. Under new measures,1 one‑third of children were in relative poverty in Scotland (15 percent in the early 1960s). There were pockets of deep poverty in west central parts, but also in Dundee and Edinburgh, the wealthy capital city. Scotland had some of Europe’s most deprived communities (HC, SAC, 2000, pp. 25–6).

  • 2 The party had long been ambivalent, often leaning on conservative views, before declaring a war on (...)

2While Trainspotting could be read as the representation of a nation that was disenfranchised (Schoene, 2010, p. 66), some politicians (Labour, Liberal Democrats) and members of civil society (such as the STUC and Christian Churches) set up a Constitutional Convention that devised a scheme in 1995 for a Scottish Parliament that would make decisions in keeping with Scotland’s “collective and community traditions” (SCC, 1995). Devolution was implemented in 1999 by the UK Labour Government under the Scotland Act 1998. Scottish Governments were led by Labour and the LibDems, then by the SNP from 2007—as part of a partnership with the Greens between 2021 and 2024. SNP leaders, who did not have any governmental record (Mooney & Wright, 2007), officially shared this centre‑left consensus.2

3At the outset, Scottish politicians had limited powers to tackle poverty. Yet the 2014 referendum on independence organized by the SNP Government revealed demands for additional powers in order to distance Scotland from the austerity agenda, from both sides of the debates (McCormick, 2013, p. 128; Clark, 2013, p. 67). After independence was rejected by 55 percent of voters, the Smith Commission, composed of all parties represented in the Scottish Parliament, recommended the devolution of redistributive powers (Smith Commission, 2014, pp. 42–57). Such proposals led to the Scotland Act 2016.

  • 3 Glasgow’s 8 Holyrood seats were Labour strongholds, won by the SNP (5 in 2011, 8 in 2016 and 2021).
  • 4 Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) was set up in 1965 in response to rising poverty, influencing dec (...)
  • 5 It included 166 individuals aged 14 to 25, representing areas or organisations; they met the Scotti (...)

4Successive Scottish governments have regarded the eradication of child poverty as a political goal, along with British governments until 2012 and, increasingly, against them afterwards. Such continuity results from an underlying principle of compassion, as well as a multifaceted political dimension. Scotland’s key battlegrounds are urban areas, long represented by Labour, which then turned to the SNP.3 Women account for a substantial minority of MSPs (between 33 and 45 percent). The input from civil society should not be underestimated, with NGOs representing children,4 and a Scottish Youth Parliament.5

5Thirty years after Trainspotting, one child in four lived in poverty, compared to one in three in the UK (Table 1). Scotland’s record was singled out by the UN Reporter on extreme poverty who was scathing about UK policies (“This is a far cry from any notion of a social contract […], let alone of social human rights”, UNHCR, 2019).

  • 6 Over 50 debates held in the British and Scottish Parliaments were consulted.

6This article, based on primary sources–parliamentary debates6 and government papers—analyses the policies conducted in Scotland to eradicate child poverty since the inception of devolved institutions, first in relation to public services, then over taxes and benefits, as well as the resulting alleviation. It contends that although discourses and decisions show continuity, the issue has been instrumentalized under governments from all persuasions.

Dealing with child poverty through public services

7In the early 21st century, Scottish authorities mostly ran key public services: education, health, housing and (partially) transport. They received revenues from the British block grant based on a fixed proportion of increases in public spending in England in favour of fields that were devolved (health and education). They were then free to make their spending decisions. They first benefited from surges under New Labour, before bearing the brunt of cuts under the Conservatives. Both parties claimed that eradicating child poverty was a priority, although the former set a target that was later abandoned by the latter. UK governments wanted to make work more attractive. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (Chancellor of the Exchequer then Prime Minister from 2007), regarded social justice as a means to economic ends (Law, 2005, p. 54). David Cameron and his Chancellor George Osborne put even greater emphasis on work. But within this framework, Scottish Governments also tailored public services, especially education and health.

Promoting parents’ employment

  • 7 In 1974 Brown wrote as a young student. By 1983 he had just entered Parliament along with Robin Coo (...)

8Scotland’s First ministers did not have the powers to tackle local weaknesses highlighted by Gordon Brown (lower wages, lower employment rates) (Brown, 1975, p. 11 and 1983, p. 13).7 They benefited from New Labour policies, such as the restoration of a minimum wage or the child tax credit (paid for every child, means‑tested, HC, SAC, 2008a, p. 55). They co‑operated with local authorities. The Labour/LibDem coalition supplemented British policies, to support employers offering work experience, as well as the long‑term unemployed. They responded to some loopholes, such as income losses when moving into work (SP, LGC, 2009, p. 108), and the exclusion of the poorest from some policies (HC, SAC, 2007, pp. 27–8).

  • 8 He set targets to increase income earned by the poorest. Getting It Right for Every Child, dealt wi (...)

9SNP Governments intended to break with Conservative policies that restricted employees’ rights. They paid a living wage (higher than the minimum wage) to their employees—building on a first attempt in Glasgow in 2007—and encouraged private companies to follow suit. They aimed at closing the female gap, most lone parents being women. They backed apprenticeships. Every First Minister had their own priorities: Alex Salmond (2007–2014) had an interest in inequalities as a hindrance to economic growth.8 Nicola Sturgeon (2014–2023) and Humza Yousaf (2023–2024), two Glasgow MSPs from working-class backgrounds, gave pre‑eminence to child poverty (SP, 2014b, 2023c). Sturgeon thus appointed an Independent Adviser on Poverty and Inequality (IAPI, 2016) while Yousaf convened an antipoverty summit (Yousaf, 2023).

Expanding education

10Education was considered essential, from pre‑school years. Free childcare, introduced by New Labour to enable parents to work, amounted to 412 hours to children aged 3 and 4 under the Lab/LibDem Executive. Under the SNP Government, it was raised to 475 hours in 2009, 600 in 2014, including eligible 2‑year‑old children (on UK benefits), before being extended to 1140 hours, under a pledge made in 2014. Parents who worked were entitled to it, unlike in England, as the emphasis was also on education. In 2024, the take‑up rate was 97 percent (SG, 2024, p. 62). Yet provision varied across the territory, regarding structures, quality, and costs for extras (McAngus & Rummery, 2017; PIC, 2023).

11As for schools, Scottish politicians agreed on key principles: state education had to be free and mostly provided by local authorities. Scottish Governments funded some additional costs (the school clothing grant) and encouraged children to continue learning, thanks to the Education Maintenance Allowance, set up at UK level in 1999, but closed in England. Those who then attended university did not pay tuition fees—lowered in 2001, abolished in 2008—which soared under successive UK Governments.

12Nicola Sturgeon was also determined to reduce inequalities. She granted additional funding and more leeway over budgets to headteachers, first in 9 local authorities and then to schools with high rates of Free School Meals (FSMs) across the whole country (from 2017). But the gap between the proportions achieving expected levels in literacy and numeracy between the most deprived and the most affluent areas remained high (22 percent and 18 percent respectively, Sim & Reuben, 2023). The number of school teachers failed to meet needs. As for universities, the abolition of tuition fees boosted the participation from students from deprived areas; however, some were deterred by debts for their living expenses and by overall caps. Moreover, further education colleges which were more accessible for school-leavers from working-class backgrounds did not benefit from similar funding (SMCPC, 2015, p. 175).

13Other related policies included transport. Pupils could travel to school for free within a two‑mile catchment area. From 2022, those who live further away benefited from free travel by bus—though not on ferries.

Improving health

14Health was another key issue. Poor diet often began during pregnancy, especially in deprived communities, contributing to infant mortality rates that are higher than the OECD average. In 2004, a Labour backbencher succeeded in passing a bill to prevent any prohibition of breastfeeding in public places (Elaine Smith, SP, 2004, p. 12116). The proportion of children breastfed after 10 to 14 weeks rose from 45 to 55 percent. But in 2024, it was lower in deprived areas, while formula milk was not routinely available in food banks (Scottish Alliance, 2023, p. 52).

15Free school meals (FSMs), associated with state education from 1906, were means-tested, and reduced under Thatcher. 20 percent of children benefited from them in Scotland (40 percent in Glasgow) (Brown & Long, 2001, p. 25). Extending them to every child soon became an issue. In 2002, the only Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) MSP failed to do so (Tommy Sheridan, SP, 2002). In 2007, the SNP Government introduced a pilot, in primaries 1 to 3 in five local authorities with large deprived communities (SP, 2007), which was then extended to the whole country in 2015. This was not only because FSMs had boosted the take‑up rate (MacLardie et al., 2008, p. 4), but also because the LibDems in coalition with Cameron enacted them in England (primaries 1 and 2). FSMs were later widened to include primaries 4 (2021) and 5 (2022). They are also provided during school holiday for eligible children. The backlog of debts would be covered by a fund set up in 2024. Moreover, successive governments tried to improve the quality of school meals from 2002, by defining nutrient standards, distributing free fruit, and then by promoting education to food (2022).

16Besides, other barriers to health care were lifted, both for the wider population (abolition of prescription charges in 2008, first requested by the SSP in 2005) and in response to specific issues. Toothbrushing was encouraged to tackle dental decay in deprived areas. Free period products were made available under a Bill drafted by a Labour backbencher (Monica Lennon, SP, 2020) with unanimous support, following a trial in schools and higher education from 2017.

17Housing was related to health as early as 1924 with Scottish minister John Wheatley. In 2002, the first Scottish Executive made it compulsory for local authorities to provide accommodation, although homelessness was never eradicated (12,000 children in 2024). SNP Governments encouraged affordable housing and public provision (Thatcher’s right-to-buy council houses was abolished). In response to the cost‑of‑living crisis, and under pressure from the Greens, they introduced a freeze on rents in 2022, before contemplating local rent zone controls in 2024, since a number of landlords tended to sell their properties.

18Policies related to public services were later supplemented with redistributive policies that were markedly different from British policies.

Tacking child poverty through redistribution after 2012

19From 2010, Conservative-led Westminster governments had an austerity agenda based on welfare reform that cut the link between needs and benefits. Child poverty increased and the target was abandoned. Scottish politicians from all persuasions were determined to retain the target as a goal, although they disagreed over the means required.

Consensual aims

  • 9 First set up in 1978, it had remained universal under Thatcher (while being frozen) before increasi (...)

20The UK Welfare Reforms were resented in Scotland, leading to distinctive policies from 2016. These reforms aimed at saving money, while simplifying the system. Universal credit was created out of the merger between six benefits. It was capped at £26,000 (£21,600 in 2024), in order to remain below the lowest earnings. The £20 weekly increase in response to the COVID‑19 pandemic was soon withdrawn. As for individual benefits, uprating was below inflation. Housing benefit was cut for under-occupation in the social-rented sector (“the bedroom tax”). Child benefit was means-tested and withdrawn for households with high earners: it was often frozen, leading to a 20 percent cut in real terms from 2010.9 As for child tax credit, there was a reduction in rates and eligibility. In 2016, the family element of universal credit was removed, while in 2017 the child supplement to universal credit and child tax credit was restricted to the first two children of a family, except in exceptional circumstances (such as a rape that had to be proved). The goal to cut child poverty, enshrined in legislation in 2010, was dropped in 2016, in order to focus on social mobility. In addition, benefits could be cut, as a result of sanctions for failing to meet the terms of the agreement with DWP (responsibilities to look for a job, and to prove it), or to cover debt—often stemming from the delay in processing applications.

  • 10 The UK Parliament was expected to request the consent of the Scottish Parliament when a bill was li (...)

21In 2012, the Scottish Parliament rejected the Legislative Consent Motion10 on the UK Welfare Reform Bill, for the first time since the inception of devolution. It set up a Welfare Committee to monitor its consequences such as increases in child poverty, especially in lone-parent households, and in the use of food banks (SP, WRC, 2015, pp. 17, 29; 2014a, p. 32), while British ministers denied the link. MSPs made use of their restrained powers. With their discretionary housing payments, the bedroom tax was offset. They did not pass on UK cuts in council tax benefits. When the Scottish Government was transferred by the DWP a share of social funds, it set up a Scottish Welfare Fund to give grants to people on low incomes during emergencies, often resulting from benefit cuts (SP, WRC, 2014b, p. 5).

22The 2014 referendum on independence was a turning point, with new powers granted to the Scottish Parliament in 2016. There was a political consensus on two core bills. The 2017 Child Poverty Act restored national and local targets to cut relative poverty to 18 percent in 2024 and 10 percent in 2030. Angela Constance, Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Equality proudly stated that this signalled “the importance that we as a Parliament and as a country place on” this issue (SP, 2017). Pauline McNeill (Labour) and Adam Tomkins (Conservative) were supportive. Under the Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018, MSPs set up their own agency, named Social Security Scotland, to put emphasis on entitlements, community (McEwen, 2017, p. 85), and investment in the people. The agency would rely on principles (dignity, fairness and respect). It would devise planning partnerships including local authorities and health boards. Jeane Freeman, minister for Social Security, Mark Griffin (Labour) and Adam Tomkins (Conservative) praised the “historic” opportunity “to do things differently” (SP, 2018).

Divisive means

23Detailed policies were less consensual, depending on political circumstances. In 2024, 14 benefits were administered in Scotland, including seven that were only available in this part of the UK. They accounted for 20 percent of all benefits.

24About half of the £1.1 bn budget was devoted to the Scottish child payment, created in February 2021 at £10 a week for every child under 6 whose parents were on qualifying benefits. It rose to £20 and £25 in 2022, and was extended to eligible children under 16. In 2024, 329,000 children received £26.70 (95 percent of those who were eligible). Other benefits included the three Best Start grants, i.e. one‑off payments for every child living in families on qualifying benefits: pregnancy and baby payment, early learning payment, school age payment (former UK Sure start). Best Start Food payments were made every month from pregnancy to the third birthday. Young parents received a baby box, with basic essentials.

25The child disability payment replaced the disability living allowance, in order to meet extra caring costs. Given the complexities, the new system only came into force in 2024. Assessments would be conducted differently, by health professionals, using files and testimonies rather than stressful face-to-face meetings, and not every year. In addition, heating assistance was paid to their families every year (2020).

  • 11 In Scotland, to help people run tight budgets, universal credit was paid every fortnight and the ho (...)

26As for uprating, increases were higher than in England. The system required data-sharing with the DWP as most benefits were paid to those who received universal credit.11 Locally, there was close co‑operation with local authorities, churches, food banks and citizens advice bureaux to increase the take‑up rate (SP, 2024c).

  • 12 They evoked the “safety net” (Chris Law, HC, 2015d) that enabled the sun “to shine” (Mhairi Black, (...)
  • 13 Glasgow North East was held by Labour between 2017 and 2019.

27Meanwhile, in 2015, 56 SNP MPs entered Parliament. They voiced their concerns for UK austerity policies that broke with Britain’s postwar consensus.12 They had won over deprived constituencies at the expense of Labour (including every Glasgow seat13). In 2019, both parties still achieved good results in constituencies with the highest child poverty rates as indicated by correlation coefficients (Table 2). Yet SNP MPs failed to have any impact over sanctions which often resulted from delays in paying universal credit (Drew Smith, HC, 2017, p. 651; Chris Stephens, HC, 2022b). As for the twochild limit, Alison Thewliss, MP for Glasgow Central, campaigned along with NGOs and the Church of England, especially the Lord bishop of Durham (HL, 2023). She repeatedly denounced a “poverty trap” that “punish[ed] people for their circumstances” (HC, 2022a), stigmatizing some children, without any impact on fertility.

28In order to fund these policies, the Scottish Parliament still received a block grant. Until 2016 its tax‑raising powers were very limited. Salmond’s 1999 pledge to increase income tax was resented. As First minister, he froze the council tax and business rates (before cutting them for SMEs). Sturgeon lifted the council tax freeze but capped rises.

29The Scotland Act 2016 widened devolved powers and cut the block grant accordingly. Indeed, taxes raised in Scotland accounted for 45 percent of devolved expenditure. The main one was income tax. SNP Governments introduced additional brackets and rates (five in 2019, six in 2024) so as to make it more progressive. Low‑earners paid lower income tax while half of taxpayers with earnings above £28,800 in 2024 paid more taxes than in England and Wales (Table 3). Such policies were initially approved by most politicians. Green MSPs underlined their influence within the partnership agreement (Ross Greer, SP, 2023a). Only the Conservatives immediately regretted that Scotland was the highest-taxed part of the UK, at the expense of “working Scots”.

30These Scottish policies contributed to reducing poverty.

Some distinctive outcomes: the alleviation of child poverty

31Although Scottish politicians achieved some success, child poverty was far from being eradicated. Yet the issue was being instrumentalized for political purposes.

Relative success

  • 14 As for adults in poverty, Scotland had fewer renters and they incurred lower housing costs (JRF, 20 (...)

32The proportion of children in relative poverty after housing costs decreased from the late 1990s until 2011 with a marked contrast as the low was 27 percent in the UK and 21 percent in Scotland. Then it rose across the whole country, but the gap remained (30 and 24 percent, Table 1). Only Northern Ireland and East Midlands had slightly lower rates (Table 4).14 Yet most Scottish parliamentary constituencies experienced rates in the 10–20 percent range in 2014, and in the 20–30 range by 2022 (Table 5), which indicated a general deterioration. Meanwhile, disparities widened in Scotland, which did not go unnoticed by the UN Reporter who visited Glasgow North East (UNHRC, 2018, p. 89) or by local MSPs (Bob Doris, SP, 2023d). The Reporter also noted that Glasgow had the lowest life expectancy—with a seven-year-gap with East Dunbartonshire, the most affluent area, while there was a 17.6‑year‑gap within Glasgow, between Govan and Pollokshields (NRS, 2023).

33Furthermore, poverty increased in rural areas, with lower benefit take‑up and higher cost-of-living (SP, SJSSC, 2024c). It was more acute for lone parents, ethnic minorities, and large families (SHRC, 2023, pp. 4, 22), which was linked to the twochild cap. Persistent poverty increased to 18 percent by 2021–22, far from the target of 8 percent. Scotland was not immune from the UKwide increase in absolute poverty which countered the post‑war downward trend (Brown & Clark, 2024, p. 4). Even in Gordon Brown’s home county of Fife, some people had nothing to cut back on (Savage, 2024).

  • 15 The Family Resources Survey had flaws as some people were excluded, while distribution within famil (...)

34Scotland’s achievements were put down to Scottish policies. During the first decade, targeting and coordination with British governments were praised (HC, SAC, 2008b, p. 137). From the second decade, the SCP was described as a game changer by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF, 2023, pp. 37–39) and by academics who used quantitative15 and qualitative data (Professor Danny Dorling, SP, SJSSC, 2024b). They underlined the longterm perspective for families, at a low cost. The SCP, initially supposed to fund treats for children (leisure), also responded to primary needs for those in absolute poverty (SP, SJSSC, 2024c). This also explained why the rise in demand for food banks was lower in Scotland (Randolph et al, 2024).

  • 16 This amount would be close to a minimum income covering essentials, contemplated in 2014 (McKay, 20 (...)

35Further action was required to meet statutory targets. The Scottish Government intended to cut the link with UK benefits (SP, SJSSC, 2024a). It might also be able to extend benefits to those who were excluded, such as asylum seekers, and those who lived in temporary accommodation, as recommended by the Greens (SP, 2024c). The Poverty and Inequality Commission, created in 2017 to advise Scottish ministers and to scrutinize their policies, encouraged the Scottish Government to “reprioritise spending” and “raise additional revenue” (PIC, 2023). The Poverty Alliance demanded a £40 SCP (Poverty Alliance, 2023).16 As for the taxes on wealth and land value, advocated by the STUC (Reed, 2023) and by the Scottish Greens, they were unlikely to get majority support.

36Additional powers over welfare and employment were also requested by the SNP (Bill Kidd, SP, 2024c). The proportion of children in poverty with a parent who worked rose from 43 percent in 2009 to 68 percent in 2023 (Poverty Alliance, 2023), which was due to low pay and insufficient working hours.

Scotland versus the rest of the UK?

37While Scottish politicians framed Scotland as a distinctive political community, repeatedly contrasting Scottish and British policies, SNP ministers also promoted their independence agenda. In 2023, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, claimed that UK policies were “pushing people into poverty” (SP, 2023b). Green MSP Maggie Chapman castigated poverty as a “political choice” (ibid.). The SNP reckoned that while devolution could only result in “incremental improvements”, independence would deliver “transformative change” (SG, 2023). It still referred to small independent states, with lower poverty rates and higher benefits, while admitting that such a Nordic model might not be acceptable in Scotland as it was based on high taxes.

  • 17 According to Dave Watson, the director of the Jimmy Reid Foundation, up to 40 percent of public spe (...)

38While Scottish politicians routinely contrasted their choices for their polity with those made by British governments, SNP politicians might be too optimistic with slogans like “making Scotland the best place to grow up”, which undermined their genuine achievements. Their parliamentary discourses were always framed in the same way: Scotland had distinctive policies and agencies, but because of the lack of money and/or powers, it was “held back” in the UK. But by 2024, ambitious redistributive policies might no longer be affordable—although if Scotland ever eradicated poverty, the savings would be considerable.17

  • 18 The SNP was also criticized for policies sounding patronising by attempting to shift behaviour, esp (...)

39In addition, progress inspired by “Scottish values” may be impeded by politics. The SNP is traditionally a middleclass party (as for its membership and core voters) that managed to woo many workingclass voters with the prospect of independence. Free provisions enabled savings on administrative costs but they benefited most those who could afford to pay and they often ignored inequalities of needsfor example, 50 percent of children would never attend university. Tax rises were controversial. Humza Yousaf embodied these contradictions. He increased income tax before freezing council tax, a regressive tax (SP, 2023e). In April 2024, he bluntly put an end to the partnership agreement with the Greens who called for substantial redistribution and costly environmental policies.18

40Conversely, Unionist MSPs denounced rising costs of benefits, i.e. both operational costs and those of “demandled payments” without caps (Jeremy Balfour, Conservative) as well as delays (along with Paul O’Kane, Labour, SP, 2024a, p. 702). The Scottish Conservatives castigated every tax rise, in keeping with British Governments. Scottish Labour became increasingly critical of SNP policies after backing them, for they would not depart from their UK party’s cautious pledges over taxes and benefits. But unlike the Conservatives, they refrained from questioning free provisions, for fear of a backlash, like in 2014.

41Human rights were not immune from this political instrumentalization. The two Scottish Human Rights Action Plans published since 2012 determined that poverty engaged many human rights standards (food, housing, social security) (SHRC, 2015, 2023) and it eroded dignity and equality. Politicians ought to take into account the impact of decisions on children in particular. From 2015, there were assessments in the annual budget (Children’s Commissioners, 2022, p. 4). As a result of the incorporation of the UN Convention on Children’s Rights into Scots law (SP, 2023e), all public authorities would have to comply with it when acting according to legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament. Yet a first incorporating Bill, passed unanimously in 2021 (SP, 2021), was not enacted as the Supreme Court, at the request of the British Government, ruled that some provisions were outwith devolved competences. Although Sturgeon had full backing from the Scottish Parliament, she delayed amending it, insisting on UK infringements, which was denounced by the Children’s Commissioner (BBC News, 2023).

42Gordon Brown, as an elderly statesman, regretted in 2022 this manufacture of “conflicts”, and wanted both governments to co‑operate around minimum welfare standards, in keeping with public opinion in England and Scotland, in favour of reducing poverty (Commission on UK’s Future, 2022, pp. 42–7).

Conclusion

  • 19 As drug policy was reserved to British authorities, devolved institutions could only focus on healt (...)

43In twenty-five years of devolution, MSPs promoted community values as opposed to the individualism denounced in Trainspotting. Their legislation took into account needs and barriers due to lack of information or stigma. By 2024, 100,000 children were lifted out of relative poverty, including 60,000 thanks to the SCP. Yet statutory targets had not been met. External economic factors such as higher costs of living, and UK policies, not to mention COVID‑19 and Brexit, could not be offset. 260,000 children still lived in poverty. The poverty cycle was not broken, generating persistent gaps in educational achievements. Children’s health was poor compared to European countries: higher infant mortality, stunted growth, falling life expectancy (SP, SJSSC, 2024b, 2024c). The drug death rate was higher than in England, especially in deprived areas (McGarvey, 2022, p. 123) and above that of the 1990s.19 Trainspotting’s author reckoned that choice (and hope) had become more distant for some children (Barnett, 2023).

44Yet, SNP leaders still regarded child poverty as their priority. This was confirmed by John Swinney, elected as First Minister in May. In an attempt to unite his party, he appointed a deputy leader, Kate Forbes, who ruled out tax rises. But with lower revenues (SG, 2023c), they cut spending on affordable housing, the welfare fund or parental employability, while encouraging local initiatives by funding community projects to tackle child poverty (SP, 2024b, 2024e). Swinney’s determination was reinforced after the general election held on 4 July 2024, which resulted in a collapse for his party in the House of Commons, from 48 to 9 MPs. He intended to establish that Scottish Labour, which had 37 MPs and legitimate ambitions for the 2026 election to the Scottish Parliament, could not be trusted on such issues, especially the two‑child cap. On 23 July, SNP group leader Stephen Flynn had a vote held in the House of Commons, demonstrating that Labour MPs, once again representing some of Scotland’s most deprived communities, defended the line set by Keir Starmer, the new Prime Minister. On 4 December, the First Minister announced that he intended to mitigate this cap in 2026, which could lift another 15,000 children out of poverty (SP, 2024e). In a Parliament of minorities, his budget would have to be backed by other parties, which had requests related to child poverty: the Greens demanded FSMs for all children at primary school, while the LibDems wanted money for mental health and drug‑addicted babies. The ultimate and consensual goal remained intertwined with party politics.

45Although achievements still depended both on political will and economic circumstances, the 2024 campaign proved that child poverty had become an issue for parties and the press, which was not the case in 1993 (Maxwell, 1987, p. 90; Sinclair et al, 2009, p. 88). This could pave the way for progress towards eradication in the long term rather than mere alleviation.

 

Table 1. – Children in poverty after housing costs, 1994–2023 (%).

 

United Kingdom

Scotland

1994–1997 

        33

   32

1997–2000 

        33

   31

2000–2003 

        30

   30

2003–2006 

        29

   25

2006–2009 

        31

   25

2009–2012 

        28

   21

2012–2015 

        28

   22

2015–2018 

        30

   24

2018–2021 

        30

   25

2020–2023 

        30

   24

Source: DWP Households below average income 1994/95–2022/23, 20 April 2024.

Table 2. – Correlations between child poverty rates and election results (House of Commons) in 2019.

Turnout

Conservatives

Labour

LibDems

SNP

Correlation coefficients

 -0.79

   -0.33

 0.45

 -0.39

0.41

Source: author’s calculation.

Table 3. – Income tax 2024–2025.

 

Scotland

 

England/Wales

 

 

Bracket £

Rate %

Bracket £

Rate %

Starter

12,571–14,876

  19

 

 

Basic

14,877–26,561

  20

12,571–50,270

  20

Intermediate

26,562–43,662

  21

 

 

Higher

43,663–75,000

  42

50,271–125,140

  40

Advanced

75,001–125,140

  45

 

 

Top

Over 125,140

  48

Additional: over 125,140

  45

Source: Scottish and UK Governments.

Table 4. – Relative poverty after housing costs 2020–2022 (%).

Region/nation

Children

Scotland

   24

Wales

   29

Northern Ireland

   23

North West

   37

North East

   30

Yorkshire and the Humber

   29

West Midlands

   39

East of England

   23

East Midlands

   23

South West

   27

South East

   25

London

   32

UK

   31

Source: DWP Households below average income 2020/21–2022/23, 20 April 2024.

Table 5. – Relative child poverty after housing costs in UK parliamentary constituencies (%).

 

2014–2015

2022–2023

Less than 10%

      7

      2

10–20%

      49

      20

20–30%

      2

      33

30–40%

      1

      3

Over 40%

      0

      1

Total

      59

      59

Note: Number of constituencies within the range.

Source: Author’s calculation.

Table 6. – Relative child poverty in UK parliamentary constituencies, 2014–2023 (%).

 

2014–2015

2022–2023

Aberdeen North

   13.2

   23.5

Aberdeen South

   7.6

   12.3

Airdrie and Shotts

   18.4

   26

Angus

   14.6

   24.6

Argyll & Bute

   13

   19.5

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

   17.9

   26.5

Banff and Buchan

   12

   18.1

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

   14

   21.4

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

   15

   23.2

Central Ayrshire

   16.5

   25.3

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

   16.7

   22.4

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch

   14

   21

Dumfries and Galloway

   16.5

   24.8

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale

   13.5

   20.6

Dundee East

   13.5

   20.9

Dundee West

   16.8

   26.2

Dunfermline and West Fife

   13.9

   20.6

East Dunbartonshire

   6.9

   8.9

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahan

   11.4

   16.8

East Lothian

   12.6

   16.3

East Renfrewshire

   8.5

   10.3

Edinburgh East

   13.4

   21.2

Edinburgh North and Leith

   11.2

   17.1

Edinburgh South

   7.7

   11.6

Edinburgh South West

   11.1

   16.1

Edinburgh West

   7.8

   12.1

Falkirk

   14.5

   22.4

Glasgow Central

   31.4

   47

Glasgow East

   19.5

   30.8

Glasgow North

   18.7

   27.1

Glasgow North East

   21

   35.1

Glasgow North West

   16.5

   29.1

Glasgow South

   19.1

   28.6

Glasgow South West

   21.4

   34.8

Glenrothes

   19.7

   28.8

Gordon

   5.8

   11.5

Inverclyde

   13.4

   23.1

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

   12.2

   18.4

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

   16.5

   24.7

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

   18.1

   26.4

Lanark and East Hamilton

   15.2

   20.7

Linlithgow and East Falkirk

   13.9

   20.5

Livingston

   13.6

   21.9

Midlothian

   12.8

   18.2

Moray

   12.7

   20.1

Motherwell and Wishaw

   18.2

   26

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

   10.2

   14.3

North Ayrshire and Arran

   17

   26.7

North East Fife

   11.3

   16.5

Ochil and South Perthshire

   12.6

   19.9

Orkney and Shetland

   9

   13.6

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

   11.3

   19

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

   12.4

   22.2

Perth and North Perthshire

   13.5

   20.6

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

   13

   17.2

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

   15.6

   22.1

Stirling

   12

   16.4

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

   5

   8.7

West Dunbartonshire

   16.1

   25.6

Scotland

   14

   21.3

Source: Estimates published by House of Commons library in 2023, based on the division of Scotland into 59 parliamentary constituencies, retrieved on 6 October 2023.

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Notes

1 Poverty used to be based on those who claimed supplementary benefit (income support from the 1980s), providing additional assistance to a system based on insurance. From the 1990s, relative poverty was defined as households’ incomes below 60 percent of the median income (adjusted for family life and composition) after housing costs, i.e. disposable incomes. Absolute poverty refers to incomes below 60 percent of the median income during a year of reference (2010–11), comparing incomes with inflation.

2 The party had long been ambivalent, often leaning on conservative views, before declaring a war on poverty in 1974, to be waged thanks to tax revenues from oil in the North Sea in an independent Scotland (Maxwell, 1987).

3 Glasgow’s 8 Holyrood seats were Labour strongholds, won by the SNP (5 in 2011, 8 in 2016 and 2021).

4 Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) was set up in 1965 in response to rising poverty, influencing decision-making at UK and then Scottish level, Save the Children, Poverty Alliance, Barnardos.

5 It included 166 individuals aged 14 to 25, representing areas or organisations; they met the Scottish Government twice a year (McLeod & Eichhorn, 2020, p. 87). Ministers acknowledged their influence (SP, 2014a, 2017).

6 Over 50 debates held in the British and Scottish Parliaments were consulted.

7 In 1974 Brown wrote as a young student. By 1983 he had just entered Parliament along with Robin Cook.

8 He set targets to increase income earned by the poorest. Getting It Right for Every Child, dealt with resilience for future citizens; another policy paper was entitled Achieving Our Potential (SG, 2008 and 2012). Child poverty was not a mandatory target in the Concordats he signed with local councils (SP, 2009, Mary Mulligan). Yet, his model, Ireland, proved that growth could mean rising poverty (Maxwell, 2009, p. 62).

9 First set up in 1978, it had remained universal under Thatcher (while being frozen) before increasing under New Labour.

10 The UK Parliament was expected to request the consent of the Scottish Parliament when a bill was likely to have an impact on devolution.

11 In Scotland, to help people run tight budgets, universal credit was paid every fortnight and the housing element could be paid to landlords.

12 They evoked the “safety net” (Chris Law, HC, 2015d) that enabled the sun “to shine” (Mhairi Black, HC, 2015g, Stuart C. MacDonald, 2015f, p. 658). By 2015, society was “broken” (Deirdre Block, HC, 2015c), as the UK Government blamed the “undeserving” like in the Victorian era (Chris Stephens, HC, 2015b). Some children were already “hungry at home at night” (Philippa Whiteford, HC, 2015a). Child poverty was expected to surge (Chris Law, HC, 2015d, p. 1712; Gavin Newlands, 2015f, p. 666). These policies ignored “the traditional Scottish—and indeed, UK—values of fairness, protection of families, and decency” (Calum Kerr, HC, 2015e).

13 Glasgow North East was held by Labour between 2017 and 2019.

14 As for adults in poverty, Scotland had fewer renters and they incurred lower housing costs (JRF, 2023, p. 33).

15 The Family Resources Survey had flaws as some people were excluded, while distribution within families could not be assessed (Gavin, 2021).

16 This amount would be close to a minimum income covering essentials, contemplated in 2014 (McKay, 2013, p. 103; Thomas, 2022, p. 303).

17 According to Dave Watson, the director of the Jimmy Reid Foundation, up to 40 percent of public spending was linked to poverty (Mackay, 2024).

18 The SNP was also criticized for policies sounding patronising by attempting to shift behaviour, especially those of the poorest (smoking, alcohol consumption as well as the named person to safeguard every child).

19 As drug policy was reserved to British authorities, devolved institutions could only focus on health.

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Edwige Camp-Pietrain, « Eradicating Child Poverty in Scotland: A Political Goal under Devolution »Études écossaises [En ligne], 24 | 2025, mis en ligne le 31 mars 2025, consulté le 20 juin 2025. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/etudesecossaises/5255 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/13lku

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Edwige Camp-Pietrain

Université polytechnique Hauts-de-France (Valenciennes), LaRSH-CRISS
edwige.camp@uphf.fr
 
Edwige Camp-Pietrain est professeur de civilisation britannique à l’Université polytechnique Hauts-de-France (Valenciennes). Membre du laboratoire LaRSH-CRISS, ses recherches portent sur la vie politique, les institutions et les politiques publiques dans l’Écosse contemporaine. Elle a publié plusieurs ouvrages et de nombreux articles sur ces sujets.
 
Edwige Camp-Pietrain is Professor of British politics and history at the Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France (Valenciennes). She is a member of the research centre LaRSH-CRISS. Her research interests are politics, institutions and public policies in contemporary Scotland. She has published several books and many articles on these topics.

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