Introduction

2Although the first reports warning about climate change date back to the early 1970s and the 50th anniversary of the Meadows report published in October 1972 is fast approaching, public opinion seems at last to accept the analysis and urgency of the situation. Nevertheless, consensus about how the transition should be implemented is yet to emerge.

Increasingly strong consensus concerning the diagnosis: the urgent need to act against the risks of inaction

Anthropocene: the impact of human activities on the climate emergency

3In physical terms, global warming refers to the increase in average temperature at the earth’s surface over the course of the 20th and 21st centuries and, in a more general sense, to the resulting disruption of major weather patterns.

4The IPCC states that average annual emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the years 2010-2019 continued to grow, reaching levels greater than those recorded during preceding decades. These net emissions from human activities increased in every sector, from energy to manufacturing, transportation to agriculture. Fossil fuels still account for over 80% of energy use worldwide, a proportion that has scarcely changed in 30 years. The IPCC experts stress that if the targets agreed at the Paris Climate Conference are to be met, drastic action must be taken before 2030, notably the early abandonment of existing fossil-fueled infrastructure (coal-fired power plants, internal combustion cars, etc.) without waiting for them to reach the end of their technical lifetimes.

Interconnected environmental crises

6A number of scientific reports published in 2022 by the IPCC and IPBES stress the interdependency of environmental crises:

• the health of the ecosystems we depend on, along with all other species, is deteriorating faster than ever. Biodiversity is a central plank of the international agenda with the 2021 IUCN World Conservation Congress and the COP15 on biodiversity scheduled for December 2022 in Canada;

• oceans are suffering from their climate-regulating role and are getting warmer, more acidic and less productive. Glaciers and the cryosphere are melting faster than ever, and the permanent Arctic ice pack is shrinking, contributing to a rise in sea levels;

• the vicious circle formed by overuse of land coupled with the climate emergency creates a systemic threat to the planet.

7The health impacts of these crises are also of increasing concern, with countless reports citing the effects of plastics and microplastics and indoor and outdoor air pollution as well as infectious diseases, mental health issues and other consequences of the climate emergency. Because they trigger instant anxiety about our individual health, these effects magnify the importance accorded to the crises that produce them.

Ecological transition is not simply about environmental and climate policies

8Concepts such as a “just transition” and “climate justice” are a growing feature of national and international public debate.

Climate injustice towards Southern countries

9The concepts of climate justice and just transition are rooted in recognition of a form of structural inequality: countries with the most industrialized and developed economies are historically more responsible for the climate emergency, whereas the first to suffer its consequences are the most fragile countries. This phenomenon of “double inequality” is synonymous with the inversely proportional distribution of risks and responsibilities. It is estimated that close to 80% of the current and future impacts of the climate disturbances will be concentrated in countries with developing economies. Annual costs of adaptation to climate change in these countries are currently thought to be around $70 billion, and are predicted to rise to between $140 and $300 billion by 2030, and $280 to $500 billion by 2050.

10A third form of inequality also needs to be acknowledged on the international scale, centering on the under representation of the most vulnerable countries, particularly in international negotiations.

“End of the month vs. end of the world”: from consensus to the new class struggle?

11The idea of double inequality is increasingly applied to households and individuals rather than simply to states, highlighting households’ unequal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions as a function of income. The lifestyles of the richest individuals are singled out for special condemnation, most recently for totemic issues, such as the use of private jets, which crystallize tensions.

13The climate emergency also raises the question of territorial inequalities. Not all regions are equally impacted by, or vulnerable to, the climate emergency and the consequences of ecological transition. This applies particularly to regions that are heavily reliant on fossil-fuel energy. For example, in Europe a large number of jobs depend on coal mining, especially in Poland and Romania.

A “systemic” vision of inequalities in the face of the climate emergency

15Aside from agreeing on the facts, little consensus exists regarding the approach and path to follow. The nature of actions to take sparks fierce debate. Which interconnections could be made between ecological transition and the fight against inequalities? Which growth or degrowth models should we adopt for the future? Should we talk about ecological transition or ecological transformation?

The challenge now focuses on implementation mechanisms

Origins and evolution of the concepts of ecological transition and ecological transformation

16Science provides us with an endless stream of proof, but there is nothing new in t he basic reality itself, or in the demands from certain civil society actors for a change in models. Back in 1972, the Meadows report formulated the concept of ecological transition to describe a shift from a growth model judged unsustainable to a balance described as global. Historically, the idea of transition linked to the notion of sustainable development as called for in the Brundtland report, “transition to sustainable development,” which was then taken up by international policymakers. The concept of transition implies a change of state, a system-wide reconfiguration over the long term.

18Transition, transformation: whatever the terms used and the vision underpinning them, tackling the ecological question and attempting to provide solutions demand a 360° approach to the problems facing us, requiring us to consider their social and economic ramifications. Social, because environmental policies cannot stand apart from the issue of fighting inequalities, as illustrated by the “just transition” concept mentioned above; economic, because we need to create a new model of society if we are to achieve a sustainable balance in a world where resources, fossil fuels in particular, are finite.

Green growth, sufficiency, post-growth, degrowth: which models for future use?

19Several development models are currently being suggested in an attempt to reconcile economic, social and environmental challenges from a sustainable perspective. Their ideological roots and operational implications can sometimes be radically opposed.

20To start with, the concept of green growth seeks to solve a twofold challenge: increase economic opportunities worldwide at a time when the global population is expanding, while simultaneously protecting the environment and climate. The concept is widely used by international bodies, institutions and public authorities to describe policies and reforms put in place to deliver sustainable growth, often based on new investments and technological innovations.

21Other concepts challenge, more or less vehemently, the reality of continuing with a world of non-stop growth. The sufficiency (or sobriety) and degrowth approaches, despite their differing ideological roots, both advocate values and behaviors in stark contrast to current modes of consumption, centering on a certain form of frugality, or even a dramatic reduction of consumption and needs.

23The degrowth model advocates a more radical approach that directly challenges the very idea that it is possible to sever the link between increasing GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. More closely aligned with campaigning groups, it is nonetheless experiencing an uptick in interest, particularly in France. Several initiatives, such as the launch of the Observatory of Post-Growth and Degrowth in France in 2022, and publication of the Prophil report Post-Growth for Business, advocate for the emergence of new, more disruptive models. The IPCC also refers to degrowth in its most recent report, but only for information purposes and without flagging it as a deliverable solution for meeting climate targets.

24We still have a long way to go on the pathway to ecological transformation as the economy undergoes fresh upheaval, with trade-offs and, sometimes, contradictory injunctions persisting. These tensions are exacerbated by the crisis in Ukraine and its geopolitical and energy implications.

Crisis of the decision-making process itself

25While ecological transition brings countless conflicts (social, political, territorial, generational, etc.) to the surface, a crisis of decision-making is making it harder still to organize it in a democratic manner.

27Deciding on just and socially accepted mechanisms for ecological transformation becomes even harder when the decision-making processes themselves are subject to criticism. In response to this, there is a clear preference for local actions, including via initiatives in favor of participatory democracy, while the clamor for transparency grows ever more widespread and insistent.