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Sophie Loussouarn (ed.).Brexit and its aftermath

Gilles Leydier
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Sophie Loussouarn (ed.). Brexit and its aftermath, London, Bloomsbury academic, 2022, ISBN: 978-0755640782

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1Prefaced by Vernon Bogdanor, Brexit and its aftermath brings together ten chapters written by a panel of prominent British and European contributors, academics, senior civil servants, diplomats, business leaders and politicians. It is structured in two parts, one devoted to the internal consequences of Brexit for the United Kingdom, the other dealing with international aspects.

2The first part explores the consequences of Brexit on the constitution, the party system, the Scottish and Northern Irish questions, as well as the impact on Britain’s financial services. The second addresses the themes of the future of British trade policy, the “special relationship” with the United States, the Franco-British and German-British bilateral relations, and finally the emerging relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union resulting from the Brexit process.

3Written in 2021, the book is primarily aimed at an academic audience and political decision-makers.

4Most authors focus on the risks, uncertainties and interrogations resulting from Brexit. This is the case with the question of Scotland's place within the British institutional system. In his convincing contribution, John Curtice analyses the quantitative and qualitative changes in the popular support for independence, and puts the stress on the renewal of the terms of the debate on the future of the Union within the Scottish opinion following the referendum.

5The same applies to the (Northern-)Irish question, which is now raised with an accurate force and in a degraded political context: analysing the physical and psychological impact of the European issue on both communities, Paul Breen insists on the complexity of considering a lasting and consensual solution to settle the question of the Northern Irish border. He also argues that the major consequence of the Brexit debate and a “distorted sense of English nationalism” all along the process has been at the same time to deceive the Northern Irish unionist community and “allow a genie of Irish discontent escape the bottle”.

6Less crucial for the future of the British Union, the party system is also considered from the point of view of the sustainability of its recent realignment around the European problematics. The centrality of the European issue in the outcome of the British general elections of 2017 and 2019 is analyzed in detail by Alan Wager, who questions the longevity of the changes induced by Brexit, and bets on a lasting impact of the latter on electoral behaviours, political programmes and governmental practices and decisions.

7Questions about the impact of Brexit on the British Constitution and what is called the “Westminster model” are also at the heart of Andrew Blick's contribution. According to him, the Brexit episode has been both a revelation and an accelerator of deep structural dysfunctions, as well as a source of uncertainty and risks for the future of the British system. In particular, the issues of parliamentary sovereignty and its limits, as well as the conflictual relationship between direct and representative democracy, have been at the heart of the Brexit process and will continue to challenge British politics, within an ideological context characterised by the emergence of populist discourses. At the same time, the social and especially territorial geography of Brexit now constitutes a major challenge for the cohesion and integrity of the British multinational state.

8If the episode of the referendum and the years 2016-2020 were characterized by strong tensions for the British political and institutional system, the process initiated with Brexit also tends to make the integration of the United Kingdom into its international environment more complex, and a source of serious difficulties as well as potential opportunities for the future. That is the main thesis defended by the contributors in the second part of the book.

9Thus Sophie Loussarn, analysing the historical springs of the “Entente Cordiale” and the consequences of the British vote on Franco-British relations during and after the 2016 referendum, claims that “Brexit has complicated the fraught relations between France and the UK”, mostly due to the French objective to stick to European values without any compromise during the Brexit negotiations, stressing the willingness of the French Presidency to “marginalise Britain as a power in Europe”.

10Analysing German-British relations essentially from the German point of view, Jochen M. Richter returns to the complex and ambiguous attitude of German diplomacy during the post-referendum negotiations, and underlines the regret expressed by Germany at the loss of a “strategic and fully reliable partner”.

11Regarding the future of the “special relationship” between the Americans and the British after Brexit, Lord Renwick believes that the latter should suffer diplomatically from the British withdrawal from the EU, which could be perceived as reflecting a lack of British ambition on the international scene. On the other hand, the UK's ability to remain a secure defence ally, as well as to maintain its economic standards in the world competition, could be the keys to the continuation of an “especially close” relationship that benefits the UK.

12In terms of opportunities, the economy appears to be the key to possible British success in the future. Some contributors are obviously delighted – or relieved – with the agreement finally signed between the EU and British leaders at the end of 2020, putting an end to not only the prospect of a “no deal” but also a “hard Brexit” that would have been eminently damaging for the UK economy.

13Analysing the impact of the Brexit negotiations on British financial services, Stephen Jones points to the mutual misunderstanding between the two opposing camps, and the counterproductive attitude of British representatives, based on the wrong appreciation that “the EU needs access to the British markets for financial services more than the UK needs access to EU markets”. Making the difference between the immediate – rather negative – consequences of Brexit for the City and British financial services and the medium term prospects, he believes that these will depend largely on the ability of the British government to create a coherent and sustainable fiscal and labour market environment, in order to allow London's financial centre to keep its global role.

14The answer to these questions seems to be given by Greg Hands in his chapter explaining the UK government's medium-term vision in the area of trade policy. In a proud advocacy pro domo the Conservative trade minister outlines the strategic priorities of the British government, lists the various post-Brexit trade agreements envisaged, modeled on the one signed with Japan, and concludes on the promises and rich opportunities to be seized for the British and resulting from the departure of the EU.

15The book provides informed and stimulating insights into some key aspects of this historical moment, analysed over the period from the electoral campaign before the 2016 referendum to the conclusion of the final agreement at the very end of 2020. However, it is regrettable that some other important features of the subject, which could have added favourably to the picture, should not be addressed in the book. That is particularly the case with the Remainers-Leavers fracture in the British public opinion all along the campaign and its perpetuation after the referendum; or the concept of Global Britain, widely mobilised by Brexiteers and the Conservative governments, and which is only considered from the trade policy perspective. The impact of Brexit on the Anglosphere or the links with the Commonwealth are also little mentioned.

16The book offers a diverse and original panel of responses and attitudes that are sometimes very contrasting. The optimistic and voluntarist approach of British (Conservative) political leaders or diplomats clearly distinguishes from the doubts or concerns expressed by economic and business leaders and the critical analysis by academics.

17The book is of course a snapshot coinciding with the year following the December 2019 general elections and the broad mandate given by the British electorate to Boris Johnson's government to “get Brexit done”. It well situates the subject in its diversity and also from a historical perspective, but its clear limit is its temporality, which does not allow even a first assessment to be made of the situation resulting from the 2020 agreement.

18Obviously, it will be interesting to update the words of the book in a few years once Brexit has done its work, and the deal concluded in late 2020 is also itself subject to regular renegotiation between the partners.

19However, some of the conclusions of the book seem hasty, to say the least, and can already be challenged. In the concluding remarks of her chapter, Sophie Loussouarn assumes that the British departure from the EU is likely to snowball and cause growing anti-EU suspicion among its members, or quickly lead to other referendums on the subject, citing the case of Spain or Denmark. She also considers that “without the UK the EU is a very different organization and the divisive issues between member states more striking”. If the impact of the departure of the UK from the EU on the functioning of the latter will obviously be an issue to be scrutinized in the years to come, these last points – among others – appear highly questionable and have not turned out to be true at the time of this review. But the main contribution of the book lies more in providing the in-depth and comprehensive material illustrating the Brexit problematics than asserting definitive answers to a momentous and ongoing process.

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Référence électronique

Gilles Leydier, « Sophie Loussouarn (ed.).Brexit and its aftermath »Miranda [En ligne], 28 | 2023, mis en ligne le 13 octobre 2023, consulté le 19 février 2026. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/miranda/55824 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/miranda.55824

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