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Partie II. L’Union britannique, les nations périphériques et la gouvernance territoriale

The United Kingdom, “a country in crisis”: Mark Drakeford, or Wales vs Boris Johnson, or Britain

Stéphanie Bory
p. 155-174

Résumé

This paper studies the recent crises between the Welsh and British governments, especially on the Levelling Up and HS2 rail funding schemes, illustrating the extent to which Mark Drakeford, Wales’ First Minister, and Boris Johnson, Prime Minister between July 2019 and September 2022, embodied two very different visions of the United Kingdom: unionist-devolutionist for Drakeford, unionist-centralist for Johnson. Since a general election is scheduled for the second half of 2024, it remains to be seen whether Rishi Sunak will adopt a more conciliatory approach. Similarly, the Labour Party’s proposals to overcome the crisis affecting the British multinational state will be considered.

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Introduction

  • 1 Commission on the UK’s Future, A New Britain: Renewing our Democracy and Rebuilding our Economy, Lo (...)
  • 2 Ibid., p. 6.

1“To many people, it feels that Britain today is a country in permanent, constant crisis”. That is an extract from A New Britain: Renewing our Democracy and Rebuilding our Economy1, the report published in December 2022 by the (Labour) Commission on the United Kingdom’s Future, chaired by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The Commission asserted the necessity to reconnect the devolved nations with Westminster, after years of tensions. Recent decisions by Boris Johnson’s government have widened the gap between the central government and the Welsh administration, paradoxically making the United Kingdom “the most centralised country in Europe”2, despite several warnings that were not heeded.

  • 3 Theresa May, Speech on the Union, Stirling, 04-07-2019, available via https://www.gov.uk/government (...)
  • 4 Philip Rycroft occupied such a position from October 2017 to March 2019, the date of original Brexi (...)
  • 5 Philip Rycroft, Brexit, Devolution and the General Election, Annual lecture to the Wales Governance (...)
  • 6 Boris Johnson, in Libby Brooks, Jessica Elgot & Simon Murphy, “Devolution ‘a disaster north of the (...)

2Indeed, Theresa May, speaking in Stirling, in Scotland, at the end of her premiership on 4 July 2019, described the United Kingdom as a family of four nations, resting on the consent of its constituent parts: “First, our Union rests on and is defined by the support of its people. It is not held together by a rigid constitution or by trying to stifle criticisms of it. It will endure as long as people want it to – for as long as it enjoys the popular support of the people of Scotland and Wales, England and Northern Ireland.”3 A few months later, Philip Rycroft, former Permanent Secretary at DeXeu4, gave a similar warning to the incoming Prime Minister in an annual lecture to the Wales Governance Centre in Cardiff on 9 December 2019, just three days before the General Election. He stressed “the obligation of the PM of the land to respect the sovereign wishes of those who make up the United Kingdom”5. Such advice was not listened to by Boris Johnson who formed a new government after the election and dismissed devolution as a “disaster north of the border” in a Zoom call with around 60 northern Conservative MPs, on 12 November 2020. He also described devolution as “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”6. As for Liz Truss, who succeeded him in September 2022, she made no contact with the First Ministers of Scotland or Wales during her time in office.

3This paper proposes to study more precisely the crises between the Welsh and British governments, on the Levelling Up and High Speed (HS) 2 rail funding schemes, illustrating the extent to which Mark Drakeford, Wales’ First Minister, and Boris Johnson, Prime Minister between July 2019 and September 2022, embodied two very different visions of the United Kingdom: unionist-devolutionist for Drakeford, unionist-centralist for Johnson. Since, according to Greg Hands, the new Conservative chair, a general election is scheduled for the second half of 2024, it remains to be seen whether Rishi Sunak will adopt a more conciliatory approach. Similarly, the Labour Party’s proposals to overcome the crisis affecting the British multinational state should be considered.

1. From Charybdis to Scylla, or a long list of crises

4When Boris Johnson became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in July 2019, many tensions arose between the central government in London and the devolved administrations, especially in the handling of the Brexit negotiations and Covid-19. Two specific examples can be considered: the Levelling Up programme and the High Speed (HS) 2 scheme.

Levelling Up

  • 7 See Levelling Up the United Kingdom, Policy Paper, 02-02-2022, available via https://www.gov.uk/gov (...)
  • 8 HM Government, Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Levelling Up the United Kingdo (...)
  • 9 Ibid., p. 8.
  • 10 Ibid., p. 9.

5Levelling Up, a plan to reduce inequalities between richer and poorer parts of the United Kingdom, allowing London to directly subsidise schemes in Wales and Scotland, is defined by the UK Government as “a moral, social and economic programme for the whole of government”7, allowing “greater local empowerment”8. Among the list of commitments is the following one: “The UK Government will empower decision-makers in local areas by providing leaders and businesses with the levelling up skills, tools they need.”9 The objective is thus to implement subsidiarity at most, including in areas supposedly devolved, such as health and education, since these fields ultimately affect the whole United Kingdom: “Devolution settlements in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland recognise that devolved governments are best placed to deliver certain services, like health and education. But outcomes are a shared interest for the whole of the UK.”10

  • 11 The application process, a source of “local pride” according to Neil O’Brien, the Parliamentary Und (...)
  • 12 David Deans and Felicity Evans, “’Levelling up’: What does it mean for Wales?”, BBC Wales, 02-02-20 (...)
  • 13 They also insist on the fact that the UK Government has not kept its promise that Wales would not s (...)
  • 14 A Welsh Government spokesman, in BBC, “UK Treasury to control ‘levelling up’ cash for Wales, Scotla (...)

6In February 2022, the UK Government announced that 10 projects had been selected in Wales, following bids from Welsh local authorities11 the previous year12. Welsh Labour ministers accused Boris Johnson’s Government of side-lining them by making spending decisions in areas under the Welsh Government’s control like transport and the environment13, as indicated by a Welsh Government spokesman: “This is the UK Government aggressively undermining the outcome of two referendums which backed Welsh devolution.”14 Welsh democracy could be undermined.

  • 15 Levelling Up the United Kingdom: executive summary, op. cit., p. 13.
  • 16 BBC, “New UK economic aid plan to give Wales £600m over three years”, 13-04-2022, available via htt (...)
  • 17 Loc. cit.
  • 18 Michael Gove, in BBC, op. cit.

7The Levelling Up agenda also includes the £2.6bn UK Shared Prosperity Fund, aiming to “restore local pride across the UK by focusing investment on three main areas for investment: improving communities and place, people and skills, and supporting local business”15. It was announced by the British government on 13 April 2022 that, to replace EU structural funds, Wales was to receive nearly £600m over the next three years (2022-2025). According to Mark Drakeford, Wales’s First Minister, it meant that Wales was going to be “£1bn worse off in this package”, that being the additional sum ministers in Cardiff Bay said Wales would have received in EU aid by 202516. The granting process was also going to differ from the handling of EU funds: “Instead of regional agencies, funding decisions will be made by elected leaders in local government, with input from local members of Parliament and local businesses and voluntary groups.”17 Under the EU aid system, the Welsh Government administered the cash in agreement with the European Commission. The previous EU-devolved administrations partnership was to be replaced by a new one, a UK Government-local authorities one, hence leading the devolved administrations to consider that they were deprived of some of their prerogatives and that sovereignty was seriously back in London. This was clearly explained by Conservative MP Michael Gove, the Levelling Up Secretary: “We have taken back control of our money from the EU and we are empowering those who know their communities in Wales best to deliver on their priorities.”18

  • 19 Vaughan Gething, “Written Statement: Confirmation of Welsh Government’s position on the UK Governme (...)

8In a written statement published on 7 June 2022, Vaughan Gething MS, the Welsh Minister for Economy, expressed his disappointment that the Welsh Government was not really consulted on that matter despite its strong commitment to collaborate with the UK Government on a new aid model for Wales to replace the EU one19.

  • 20 Levelling Up the United Kingdom: executive summary, op. cit., pp. 10-11.

9As part of the Levelling Up programme, high investment was planned on transport20, including High Speed 2.

High Speed 2

  • 21 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the scrapping of the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Ma (...)
  • 22 See https://www.hs2.org.uk/what-is-hs2/hs2-project-update/.
  • 23 The Barnett formula applies only to expenditure on issues for which the devolved administrations (a (...)
  • 24 See The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Interim Report, Table 1: The (...)

10HS 2 is a high-speed railway line that will connect London to the North-West of England, especially Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds (the connection to Leeds was later cancelled), and possibly cities in Scotland21. It is presented on its website as “the largest infrastructure project in Europe and the most important economic and social regeneration project in decades”22. It is supposed to begin running between 2029 and 2033 when Phase 1 is complete. It was delayed by two years due to soaring costs and it may be further delayed to 2041. As shown on the map below, the HS2 service will not travel through Wales, yet the UK Government has classed it as an “England and Wales” project. This means that Wales will not get extra money, or consequentials in the Barnett formula23, estimated at £5bn, to spend on transport, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland since it entails a 0% programme comparability factor24. Such a label led to new tensions between the UK Government and the devolved administration in Wales.

  • 25 House of Commons Welsh Affairs Select Committee, Railway Infrastructure in Wales, London, House of (...)
  • 26 Wales Governance Centre, Written Evidence to the HC Welsh Affairs Select Committee, March 2021, RIW (...)

11In a report published on 14 July 2021 and entitled Railway Infrastructure in Wales, the House of Commons Welsh Affairs Select Committee recommended that “HS2 should be reclassified as an England only project”25. It was added that Wales could benefit from the project if it was accompanied by the upgrade and electrification of the North Wales line, so as to connect Wales to HS2. In its written evidence to the Select Committee, the Wales Governance Centre, an independent research unit based in Cardiff University, made the case that changes introduced in 2020 to the way the Treasury determines funding for the Welsh Government (the comparability factor) strengthened the financial case for devolution. The change in comparability factor is particularly pertinent when considering the implications of spending on HS226. A debate led by Geraint Davies, the MP for Swansea West, was held on 26 October 2021 in the House of Commons. The Welsh MP clearly indicated his position from the very opening of his speech:

  • 27 Geraint Davies, MP for Swansea West, Transport Funding: Wales and HS2, UK Parliament, London, Hansa (...)

I am here to talk about HS2 and particularly funding for the railways in Wales. We are all aware that tomorrow the Chancellor has his Budget, that next week is COP26 and that the Government have been talking about connecting the Union, levelling up and net zero. When we think about all those together, there is a compelling case that the Chancellor should look to give Wales our fair Barnett consequential, akin to the Scottish one, so that we can tool up, gear up, connect up and help move the UK towards net zero with more rail investment.27

12The UK government’s policy led to the unanimous call in Wales to reclassify the scheme.

  • 28 See Wales Governance Centre, op. cit., in a part entitled “Where does responsibility lie for rail i (...)

13The whole issue unveils the complexity of the management of railways in Wales, hence of the devolution model. Indeed, the Wales Act 2017 – more precisely Schedule 7A, Part II, Head E – giving Wales a reserved powers model like Scotland prescribed those areas reserved to the UK Parliament, including some road and rail transport, and almost all aviation, maritime, and transport security matters. Similarly, infrastructure planning and the funding of Network Rail in Wales remain reserved, unlike in Scotland28. In a 2019 report entitled A Railway for Wales: meeting the needs of future generations, the Welsh Government made the case for full devolution of rail infrastructures.

14These two examples, among others, illustrate the tensions between the UK and Welsh Governments over the last few years, and the extent to which Mark Drakeford and Boris Johnson embodied two very different visions of the UK.

2. Two different visions of the UK

  • 29 Iain McLean, “Can muscular unionism save the Union?”, The Constitution Unit, 03-11-2022, Constituti (...)

15In an article published on 3 November 2022, Iain McLean, a senior research fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford, distinguished between “plain unionists”, as Mark Drakeford, Gordon Brown, or Ruth Davidson, and “muscular unionists”, for instance Boris Johnson or Liz Truss29. I consider it is necessary to be more precise since Mark Drakeford can be regarded as a unionist-devolutionist and Boris Johnson as a unionist-centralist, when comparing their differing visions of the Union and where they put the locus of sovereignty.

Boris Johnson, a unionist-centralist

  • 30 Loc. cit.
  • 31 The Sewel Convention was named after the Government Minister, Lord Sewel, who set out the terms of (...)

16McLean, in his aforementioned article, even regarded A.V. Dicey, the first to define the concept of parliamentary sovereignty in the second half of the 19th century, as “the most muscular unionist of all”30. According to Dicey, the power of Parliament to make or unmake any law means that no statutes, not even the different devolution acts, are fully protected. The overarching supremacy of the Westminster Parliament has been illustrated over the last few years by the repeated breaches of the Sewel Convention31 by the UK Government, especially since Brexit (see table below). The Convention applies when the UK Parliament wants to legislate on a matter within the competence of the devolved administrations. Under its terms, the UK Parliament “will not normally” do so without the relevant devolved institution having passed a legislative consent motion. The repeated breaches led to several court challenges, which failed on the grounds that what is “normal” is for politicians, not judges, to decide.

Legislation

Senedd Consent

Scottish Parliament Consent

NI Assembly Consent

Enacted without consent of at least one devolved legislature?

EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018

Yes

No – refused

N/A - suspended

Yes

EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020

No – refused

No – refused

No – refused

Yes

EU (Future Relationship) Act 2020

No – request not debated

No – refused

No – refused

Yes

UK Internal Market Act 2020

No – refused

No – refused

No – refused

Yes

Subsidy Control Act 2022

No – refused

No – refused

N/A

Yes

Professional Qualifications Act

No – refused

No – request for amendment ignored

N/A

Yes

Summary table of Brexit Legislation and Legislative Consent

Source: The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Interim Report, Annex, p. 101

  • 32 This expression was coined by Ailsa Henderson, a Professor of Political Science at the University o (...)
  • 33 This was well illustrated in the press conferences Boris Johnson held during the Covid-19 pandemic. (...)
  • 34 Iain McLean, “‘Muscular unionism’ is actually imperialism”, The Times, 13-09-2022, available via ht (...)

17As a unionist-centralist, Boris Johnson promoted a new model of governance dubbed by opponents as “muscular unionism”32, meaning going against the principle of consent on which the union was founded. During his premiership, he went back to a form of unitary state British nationalism with a blurring of the difference between England and the rest of Britain33, and regarded Britain as one nation in an outdated imperialistic way, as indicated by Iain McLean in an article published in September 202234. His appeal to a certain patriotic sensibility was uncovered through rows over flags, history, and race, with a distinctive English nationalist agenda. Does this mark a return to the attitude “For Wales, see England?”

  • 35 In 2014, Boris Johnson published his biography of Churchill entitled The Churchill Factor, How one (...)
  • 36 Chris Deerin, “Boris Johnson’s ‘muscular unionism’ will only drive Scotland further towards indepen (...)
  • 37 Oliver Dowden, in BBC, “UK Government buildings to fly union flag every day”, 25-03-2021, available (...)
  • 38 Peter Mandelson, in Tim Adams, “Patriot games when flying the union jack has become so contentious” (...)
  • 39 Liz Saville Roberts, in BBC, op. cit.

18This vision of the UK echoes that of Winston Churchill, Johnson’s model35, and was clearly illustrated in instructions given to British diplomats in June 2021 to stop referring to the UK as a union of four nations and instead assert its status as one country36, or through announcements made by a member of his Cabinet, Oliver Dowden, the Culture Secretary, who gained prominence. In March 2021, for instance, he ordered the union flag, the Union Jack, to be flown on UK Government buildings in England, Wales, and Scotland every day. Announcing the new guidance, Oliver Dowden declared: “The union flag unites us as nation and people rightly expect it to be flown above UK government buildings.”37 He hence considered Britain as one nation. His stance came in sharp opposition to that of Peter Mandelson who, in the late 1990s, believed New Labour had “reclaimed the flag […] as a symbol of confidence and unity for all the peoples and ethnic communities of a diverse and outward-looking Britain.”38 (stress mine) Considering the fact that Wales is the only constituent part of the United Kingdom that is not represented on the Union Jack, the announcement led to strong reactions in the country, as that of Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts: “The Tories know that independence for Scotland is inevitable and that Wales will be hot on their heels. Sticking flags on every street corner will not change that fact, and rather, only reveals their desperate insecurity about the future of the UK.”39

  • 40 Mabon ap Gwynfor, in Ben Summer, “All Wales’ political parties unite to call on the UK Government t (...)

19As a result of Boris Johnson’s muscular unionism and unionist-centralist vision of the United Kingdom, whatever happens, “London is the centre of the world. Feeding London is the priority, not promoting the economy of other areas.”, as indicated by Plaid Cymru MS Mabon ap Gwynfor40. Faced with this centralising strategy, Mark Drakeford has strongly defended devolution and presented himself as a unionist-devolutionist.

Mark Drakeford, “the anti-Boris Johnson”41 or a unionist-devolutionist

  • 41 Richard Wyn Jones, “Mark Drakeford – the anti-Boris Johnson who surprised us all”, The Guardian, 06 (...)
  • 42 Welsh Government, Reforming our Union: shared governance in the United Kingdom, Cardiff, Welsh Gove (...)

20Since the 2016 Brexit referendum and successive Conservative administrations’ recentralisation of power in Whitehall, especially since 2019 as seen before, the Welsh Labour Government has been increasingly arguing that the United Kingdom is in urgent need of fundamental reform. This includes overthrowing traditional notions of parliamentary sovereignty and accepting the right of the United Kingdom’s four component territories to choose their own futures. Such a position was reminded by Mark Drakeford in the foreword to a document published on 10 October 2019 and entitled Reforming our Union: shared governance in the United Kingdom. He insisted on several principles, including the fact that the United Kingdom was “now a voluntary association of nations taking the form of a multinational state”, thus echoing Theresa May, and presented devolved institutions as permanent features of the United Kingdom’s constitutional arrangements. According to him, after two referendums – 1997 and 2011 – and with an elected Senedd, the Welsh devolved institutions have a popular mandate. He then called for cooperation, notably during the Brexit negotiations: “If the UK is conceived as a voluntary association of nations with distinct identities but a range of shared interests, its principal method of government in relation to those interests should be one of negotiation, with a view to securing consensus.”42

  • 43 Roger Awan-Scully, “The Citizen State: Identity and Power in Welsh Politics”, a podcast recorded on (...)

21In a 2021 podcast, Professor Roger Awan-Scully qualified Welsh Labour’s ideology as “devolutionist unionism”, as long as the union was a hospitable place, which, in his view, was less and less the case43. As a result, the Welsh First Minister has been asking for a more effective devolution for Wales, for example with the devolution of justice or rail, within a stronger union.

  • 44 Mark Drakeford, Speech to the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, 11-03-2023, available via https (...)
  • 45 Loc. cit.
  • 46 Loc. cit.

22During the March 2023 Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, Mark Drakeford presented himself first as a unionist: “Now this morning, I want once again to remake the compelling case, which I believe is there to be made, for the United Kingdom.”44 He defended “a union where the investment available for infrastructures or public services is not bounded by our postcode or by borders […] but we believe in the case for pooling our resources and sharing out the rewards.”45 Yet, he also called for a widening of devolution, revealing his ambivalent stance in the following description of the union: “a union with the commitment to pursue self-government and shared government, making the best of both.”46 (stress mine). Rejecting independence and hard unionism, he was trying to suggest a third way.

  • 47 Mick Antoniw MS, Alun Burge, Sue Essex, Owen Gareth Hughes, David Hume and Alan Simpson, We, the Pe (...)
  • 48 Mark Drakeford, in BBC, “Mark Drakeford says UK must be radically redrawn to survive”, 14-01-2021, (...)
  • 49 Mark Drakeford, in Severin Carrell, “UK could break up unless it is rebuilt as ‘solidarity union’, (...)
  • 50 In a joint mission statement, the Alliance declared: “There is a UK-wide demand for change. We reco (...)

23Back in January 2021, Mark Drakeford had endorsed a pamphlet launched by an independent group of Labour members and civic activists, entitled We the People: The Case for Radical Federalism47: “It [the argument on the Constitution] cannot be a surrender to the simplicities of unionism or nationalism. It has instead to be a radical redrawing of the United Kingdom itself.” He did not use the word “federalism” in his presentation but the report he endorsed as “excellent” had it in its title48. On 29 May 2023, he explained that “sovereignty exists in four places. What we should do is think of a United Kingdom in which sovereignty rests in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and then we choose voluntarily to pool that sovereignty back for certain important key shared purposes.”49 He is thus in favour of a divisible and shared form of sovereignty in a potentially federal system, as opposed to an indivisible form of sovereignty lying with the federal state with federated members being only endowed with self-government. In a conference held on 1 June 2023 in Edinburgh, hosted by Gordon Brown, to explore Labour’s proposals for significant reform for the United Kingdom, he joined the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change, a group of leading Labour politicians – also including Gordon Brown, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar50.

3. A campaigning time

24Since there will be a general election in 2024, it is worth considering the current position of the two main political parties regarding their relationships with the devolved administrations.

Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Government

25On his election as leader of the Conservative Party and appointment as Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak immediately contacted Nicola Sturgeon, then First Minister of Scotland, and Mark Drakeford, on his first full day in office. Such a move was then seen as a hopeful sign. He made a visit to Wales on 23 March 2023 for two days.

  • 51 Liz Saville-Roberts, in “Sunak accused of carrying out ‘Great Welsh Train Robbery’”, Nation.cymru, (...)
  • 52 In June 2021, the Welsh government announced the freezing of all new road building projects as part (...)
  • 53 Luke Fletcher, in Ben Summer, op. cit.

26Yet, one of his successes so far has been to create a united front in the Senedd over the HS2 qualification. On 26 April 2023, he was first challenged in Westminster during PMQ by Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville-Roberts, over the decision to class HS2 and Northern Powerhouse as an England and Wales project, as seen earlier. She asked the Prime Minister to “plead guilty to the Great Welsh Train Robbery”51. In his answer, Rishi Sunak declined to address the issue of reclassification and instead attacked the Welsh Government’s road building policy52. Just hours afterwards, a motion was introduced in the Senedd by Plaid Cymru MS Luke Fletcher to ask the UK Government for Wales’s fair share of money by redesignating HS2 as an England-only project: “The current funding situation is an unjust neglect of Wales, reflecting how Westminster prioritises England at the expense of Wales.”53 The motion was backed by all MSs present, including those from the Welsh Conservatives whose position differs massively from many of their Westminster colleagues. As indicated by Ben Summer in his article, Rishi Sunak was able to unite all Welsh political parties on that issue.

  • 54 Bannau means “peaks” and “Brycheiniog” refers to the old kingdom of Wales’s 5th century ruler Brych (...)

27There had already been signs of tensions when the PM refused to adopt the new Welsh name of the Brecon Beacons, Bannau Brycheiniog54, after the national park, on the 66th anniversary of its opening on 18 April 2023, switched to using its Welsh language name to reflect how it was “shaped by Welsh people and Welsh culture”, a move supported by many in Wales.

  • 55 Rishi Sunak, in Will Hayward, “Rishi Sunak says the people of Wales are ‘guinea pigs in Labour’s so (...)
  • 56 Loc. cit.
  • 57 Loc. cit.

28Finally, when Rishi Sunak came to the Welsh Conservative Party conference in Newport on 28 April 2023, he stated he was unwilling to devolve more powers to Wales, and rather chose to attack Keir Starmer’s will to use Welsh Labour’s governance of Wales as a blueprint in case he became Prime Minister: “The people of Wales don’t want to be a guinea pig in Labour’s socialist experiment.”55 He clearly defended the union, insisting on the fact that “the best place for Wales is at the heart of our own precious Union.”56 He added that he would get involved more in affairs in Wales, rather than focus on constitutional reform, aiming to “move away from devolve and forget”57. He also refused to answer any questions from Welsh journalists.

  • 58 Andrew RT Davies, in BBC, “Rishi Sunak: New PM a friend to Wales – top Welsh story”, 24-10-2022, av (...)
  • 59 Ailsa Henderson & Richard Wyn Jones, op. cit., p. 7.
  • 60 Iain McLean, “Can muscular unionism save the Union?”, op. cit.

29Even if the new PM was dubbed “a friend of Wales”58 by Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies in the moments after his appointment was confirmed, it seems that Sunak’s vision of the Union is not so different from that of Johnson, but certainly quite different from that of Welsh Conservatives, as underlined by Ailsa Henderson and Richard Wyn Jones in their study The Ambivalent Union. They consider that this “ambivalent union” leads to deep challenges for unionist parties, arising from the presence of territorially-distinct attitudes towards the union even within their own ranks59. Appearances may have changed, ideology maybe not. He should pay heed to Iain McLean’s advice given in November 2022: “Ignoring the votes, and the people elected, in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, is not unionism. It’s imperialism. Rishi Sunak would be wise to choose vanilla over muscular unionism. He should respect the entrenchment of devolution.”60 Time will tell.

British Labour’s ambiguous position

  • 61 Commission on the UK’s Future, op. cit., p. 6.
  • 62 Ibid., p. 11.
  • 63 Ibid., p. 7.
  • 64 Ibid., p. 14.

30When looking at the Labour Party’s position, there seems to be a gap between the proposals made in the Brown Commission’s report and Starmer’s stance. Indeed, as mentioned earlier, in A New Britain: Renewing our Democracy and Rebuilding our Economy, published in December 2022, the Commission first denounced the over-centralisation of the United Kingdom, described as “the most centralised country in Europe”61 when it should be “a Union of Nations and Regions”62. The Commission was asking for “a radical devolution of power”63 to save the union, thus reflecting Mark Drakeford’s position. The report underlined five key elements: decentralisation as the key to reducing regional inequalities (like the Conservative government), the granting of extra powers and stronger constitutional protection to Scotland and Wales – probation and youth justice for Wales when the Welsh Government has been asking for full policing and justice devolution, government’s civil service reform plans, a stronger role for the British Parliament and public in enforcing ethical standards, and a new second chamber as an Assembly of regions and nations. Just like Mark Drakeford, the Commission was proposing “a new way forward”, a sort of third way “ending the debilitating dilemma of the Conservative years – between independence under the SNP and an embattled status quo under the current government”64.

  • 65 Keir Starmer, in Will Hayward, “Keir Starmer refuses to commit to Wales getting share of HS2 fundin (...)
  • 66 See Ailsa Henderson & Richard Wyn Jones, op. cit., p. 50.
  • 67 Luke Fletcher, in Will Hayward, op. cit.

31Nevertheless, Keir Starmer has so far displayed an unclear position on specific elements regarding devolution. At the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno in March 2023, he refused to commit on key issues for Wales, for instance by declining to guarantee that as Prime Minister he would give Wales a fair share of HS2 funding or additional money for the Welsh NHS: “I know what you want is a commitment to exact pounds and pence. I’m not going to make a commitment like that this side of the election. Obviously, we will make an offer when we go into the election.”65 The UK-wide Labour Party is in a difficult position where Scottish adherents of muscular unionism stand alongside the reformist attitudes of Welsh Labour and more ambivalent views of English Labour66. Despite the proposals made in the Commission’s report, there may still be a crisis between the Welsh and the UK Governments, even with a Labour government in London, as underlined by MS Luke Fletcher: “The Tory Government demonstrates yet again that Wales is an afterthought in Whitehall, but the sad truth is that Wales could face the same fate under a Labour-led UK government.”67

Conclusion

32To conclude, the relationship between the Welsh and UK Governments have been characterised, over the last few years, by tensions and a succession of crises, some linked with the Brexit negotiations and the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also with more specific subjects, as the Levelling Up and HS2 programmes. Such tensions unveiled two opposed visions of the Union, Boris Johnson’s unionist-centralist and Mark Drakeford’s unionist-devolutionist ones. If the former sharply tried to recentralise power in London by displaying an imperialistic and muscular form of unionism, the latter has been asking for a radical reform of the union by dividing sovereignty between the central and the devolved administrations. With a general election scheduled next year, the main political parties are trying to attract voters in Wales by adopting a more conciliatory attitude to the Welsh Government, albeit with limits.

  • 68 Iain McLean, “‘Muscular unionism’ is actually imperialism”, op. cit.

33The two opposed visions of the British union echo two competing stances promoted in the second part of the 19th century during debates on Home Rule for Ireland, a proposal strongly rejected by A. V. Dicey in his work England’s Case Against Home Rule (1886). He was regarded as an organicist, in other words someone who considered that forces of history were in the direction of the consolidation of a syncretic state, thus viewing the United Kingdom as a single organ. That vision was then opposed by James Bryce, an Ulster Presbyterian MP between 1906 and 1918 and Chief Secretary for Ireland from December 1905 to February 1906, known as an advocate for Home Rule, a pluralist regarding the United Kingdom as an amalgam of four nationalities and various religions and distinctive traditions. Such a divide led to the partition of Ireland more than a century ago. Could history repeat itself? That is one of the fears expressed by Iain McLean who warned British politicians: “Ignoring the wishes of the people elected in Ireland didn’t work. Nor will ignoring the wishes of the people elected in Scotland. Muscular unionism is not truly unionism. It is imperialism. That did not end well last time, either.”68

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Bibliographie

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Notes

1 Commission on the UK’s Future, A New Britain: Renewing our Democracy and Rebuilding our Economy, London, December 2022, p. 19.

2 Ibid., p. 6.

3 Theresa May, Speech on the Union, Stirling, 04-07-2019, available via https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-the-union-4-july-2019, accessed in July 2019.

4 Philip Rycroft occupied such a position from October 2017 to March 2019, the date of original Brexit. He was recently an adviser to the Brown Commission.

5 Philip Rycroft, Brexit, Devolution and the General Election, Annual lecture to the Wales Governance Centre, 09-12-2019, p. 5, available via https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/wales-governance-centre/publications/governance-and-constitution, accessed in March 2020.

6 Boris Johnson, in Libby Brooks, Jessica Elgot & Simon Murphy, “Devolution ‘a disaster north of the border’, says Boris Johnson”, The Guardian, 16-11-2020, available via https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/16/scotland-devolution-a-disaster-north-of-the-border-says-boris-johnson, accessed in November 2020.

7 See Levelling Up the United Kingdom, Policy Paper, 02-02-2022, available via https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/levelling-up-the-united-kingdom, accessed in March 2022.

8 HM Government, Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Levelling Up the United Kingdom: executive summary, White Paper, London, 2022, p. 5.

9 Ibid., p. 8.

10 Ibid., p. 9.

11 The application process, a source of “local pride” according to Neil O’Brien, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Levelling Up, the Union and Constitution, entails competition between local authorities, not just in Wales, but all over the United Kingdom.

12 David Deans and Felicity Evans, “’Levelling up’: What does it mean for Wales?”, BBC Wales, 02-02-2022, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-60218482, accessed in February 2022.

13 They also insist on the fact that the UK Government has not kept its promise that Wales would not see a cut in its funding when it could no longer receive EU funds of around £375 m a year. According to Dr Jack Watkins, the Foundational Economy Project Lead at the Institute of Welsh Affairs, 2022 will see a cut of around £260 m. See Jack Watkins, “’Levelling Up’ in Wales”, 2021 Virtual Economic Summit, IWA, 31-11-2021.

14 A Welsh Government spokesman, in BBC, “UK Treasury to control ‘levelling up’ cash for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland”, 24-02-2021, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-56181547, accessed in February 2022.

15 Levelling Up the United Kingdom: executive summary, op. cit., p. 13.

16 BBC, “New UK economic aid plan to give Wales £600m over three years”, 13-04-2022, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-61080521, accessed in April 2022.

17 Loc. cit.

18 Michael Gove, in BBC, op. cit.

19 Vaughan Gething, “Written Statement: Confirmation of Welsh Government’s position on the UK Government’s Shared Prosperity Fund prospectus”, 07-06-2022, available via https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-confirmation-welsh-governments-position-uk-governments-shared-prosperity-fund, accessed in July 2022.

20 Levelling Up the United Kingdom: executive summary, op. cit., pp. 10-11.

21 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the scrapping of the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester at the Conservative Party conference in the city on 4 October 2023.

22 See https://www.hs2.org.uk/what-is-hs2/hs2-project-update/.

23 The Barnett formula applies only to expenditure on issues for which the devolved administrations (as opposed to UK central government) are responsible. Its principle is that any increase (or reduction) in expenditure in England will automatically lead to a proportionate increase called consequentials (or reduction) in resources for the devolved governments in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. 

24 See The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Interim Report, Table 1: The Departmental comparability factors, 2021 Spending Review, Cardiff, p. 105.

25 House of Commons Welsh Affairs Select Committee, Railway Infrastructure in Wales, London, House of Commons, HC 438, 14-07-2021, p. 5.

26 Wales Governance Centre, Written Evidence to the HC Welsh Affairs Select Committee, March 2021, RIWO0019, available via https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/23492/html/, accessed in March 2023.

27 Geraint Davies, MP for Swansea West, Transport Funding: Wales and HS2, UK Parliament, London, Hansard, Vol. 702, debated on 26 October 2021, available via https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-10-26/debates/B6E8A268-F11B-4711-8315-E4D36A0603BC/TransportFundingWalesAndHS2, accessed in May 2023.

28 See Wales Governance Centre, op. cit., in a part entitled “Where does responsibility lie for rail infrastructure in Wales?”: “While the devolved settlement over rail has changed immeasurably since the beginning of devolution in 1999, it remains the case that rail infrastructure is not devolved to Wales. Legislative competence for railway services (in this case including passenger and freight services, and network services covering infrastructure) is reserved by the UK government in the Government of Wales Act 2006 (as amended by the Wales Act 2017), and are further subject to the Railways Act 2005. However, the relevant reservation contains an exception that permits the Welsh Government to provide financial assistance to railway services, and this flexibility includes rail infrastructure.”

29 Iain McLean, “Can muscular unionism save the Union?”, The Constitution Unit, 03-11-2022, Constitution Unit blog, available via https://constitution-unit.com/2022/11/03/can-muscular-unionism-save-the-union/, accessed in March 2023.

30 Loc. cit.

31 The Sewel Convention was named after the Government Minister, Lord Sewel, who set out the terms of the UK Government’s stated policy on legislation concerning devolved matters during debates in the House of Lords for the passage of the Scotland Bill 1997-1998 on 21 July 1998. It was then applied to Wales and Northern Ireland.

32 This expression was coined by Ailsa Henderson, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Edinburgh. See Ailsa Henderson and Richard Wyn Jones, The Ambivalent Union, a report published by the Institute for Public Policy Research, September 2023.

33 This was well illustrated in the press conferences Boris Johnson held during the Covid-19 pandemic. He very often made announcements without specifying they only concerned England since health is a devolved matter. See Stéphanie Bory, “’I am sure Aneurin Bevan would be turning in his grave’, Covid-19 in Wales: highlighting a dysfunctional system”, in The British Isles, the Commonwealth and the Covid Epidemic – Political Divisions, Diplomatic, Economic and Societal Realignments, Philippe Brillet and Louise Dalingwater (eds), RFCB, to be published in 2024.

34 Iain McLean, “‘Muscular unionism’ is actually imperialism”, The Times, 13-09-2022, available via https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/muscular-unionism-is-actually-imperialism-ljscd5vrf, accessed in March 2023.

35 In 2014, Boris Johnson published his biography of Churchill entitled The Churchill Factor, How one man made history, London, Hodder&Stoughton, in which he celebrated Britain’s former leader and war hero.

36 Chris Deerin, “Boris Johnson’s ‘muscular unionism’ will only drive Scotland further towards independence”, The New Statesman, 10-06-2021, available via https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/06/boris-johnson-s-muscular-unionism-will-only-drive-scotland-further-towards, accessed in March 2023.

37 Oliver Dowden, in BBC, “UK Government buildings to fly union flag every day”, 25-03-2021, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56514501, accessed in March 2023.

38 Peter Mandelson, in Tim Adams, “Patriot games when flying the union jack has become so contentious”, The Guardian, 28-03-2021, available via https://www.theguardian.com/focus/2021/mar/28/patriot-games-why-flying-the-union-jack-has-become-so-contentious, accessed in March 2023.

39 Liz Saville Roberts, in BBC, op. cit.

40 Mabon ap Gwynfor, in Ben Summer, “All Wales’ political parties unite to call on the UK Government to reclassify HS2 as England-only”, WalesOnline, 27-04-2023, available via https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/senedd-unites-tell-uk-government-26789752?utm_source=wales_online_newsletter&utm_campaign=politics_newsletter2&utm_medium=email, accessed in April 2023.

41 Richard Wyn Jones, “Mark Drakeford – the anti-Boris Johnson who surprised us all”, The Guardian, 06-09-2021, available via https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/06/mark-drakeford-boris-johnson-covid-welsh-first-minister, accessed in March 2023. Richard Wyn Jones, the Director of the Wales Governance Centre, presented Mark Drakeford as “a politician whose focus is almost exclusively on domestic politics”.

42 Welsh Government, Reforming our Union: shared governance in the United Kingdom, Cardiff, Welsh Government, 2019, p. 12.

43 Roger Awan-Scully, “The Citizen State: Identity and Power in Welsh Politics”, a podcast recorded on 8 February 2021 et broadcast on 4 March 2021, a few days before the Welsh elections, in the series Breaking Britain: A Podcast about the Politics of a Disunited Kingdom, produced by Europe’s Borderlands Research Group, King’s College London and presented by Russell Foster and Alex Clarkson, available via https://podtail.com/fr/podcast/breaking-britain-a-podcast-about-the-politics-of-a/the-citizen-state-identity-and-power-in-welsh-poli/, consulted in March 2023.

44 Mark Drakeford, Speech to the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, 11-03-2023, available via https://labourlist.org/2023/03/drakeford-to-welsh-labour-conference-2023-its-time-to-make-that-difference/, accessed in March 2023.

45 Loc. cit.

46 Loc. cit.

47 Mick Antoniw MS, Alun Burge, Sue Essex, Owen Gareth Hughes, David Hume and Alan Simpson, We, the People: The Case for Radical Federalism, Cardiff, March 2021.

48 Mark Drakeford, in BBC, “Mark Drakeford says UK must be radically redrawn to survive”, 14-01-2021, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-55649017, accessed in March 2023.

49 Mark Drakeford, in Severin Carrell, “UK could break up unless it is rebuilt as ‘solidarity union’, says Mark Drakeford”, The Guardian, 29-05-2023, available via https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/29/uk-could-break-up-unless-it-is-rebuilt-as-solidarity-union-says-mark-drakeford, accessed in May 2023.

50 In a joint mission statement, the Alliance declared: “There is a UK-wide demand for change. We recognise the urgent need for working together – locally, regionally and nationally across the UK – to reform our constitution so we can deal with the current economic and social challenges faced in every area of our country. To that effect we are creating the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change to implement wide-ranging proposals for the reform of the UK – to end the centralisation of power in Whitehall and Westminster, to devolve effective economic and social powers to the regions and nations, to make our cities and regions centres of initiative for full employment and good jobs, and to ensure co-ordination between all levels of government to achieve a fairer, greener and wealthier Britain, in which each nation and region enjoys the respect it deserves.” See “Mark Drakeford joins group of Labour politicians to campaign for UK reform”, ITVx, 02-06-2023, available via https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023-06-02/mark-drakeford-joins-group-of-labour-politicians-to-campaign-for-uk-reform, accessed in June 2023.

51 Liz Saville-Roberts, in “Sunak accused of carrying out ‘Great Welsh Train Robbery’”, Nation.cymru, 26-04-2023, available via https://nation.cymru/news/sunak-accused-of-carrying-out-great-welsh-train-robbery/, accessed in April 2023. She declared: “Incredibly any traveller wanting to go by train from north to south Wales has to go via England, linking Wales north to south would cost £2bn. Now the PM talks about running away with other people’s money but his Government is depriving Wales to the tune of £6bn by ruling that north-south England rail links, like HS2, somehow benefit Wales? Will he plead guilty to the Great Welsh Train Robbery?”. The very expression recalls the robbery of £2.3 million (about £38 million today) from a Royal Mail train heading from Glasgow to London on the West Coast Main Line in the early hours of 8 August 1963 at Bridego Railway Bridge, Ledburn, near Mentmore in Buckinghamshire, England.

52 In June 2021, the Welsh government announced the freezing of all new road building projects as part of its plans to tackle the climate emergency. More than 50 schemes were then reassessed by an expert roads review panel and, in February 2023, it was revealed that only 15 were to go ahead in their original form. See Steven Morris, “Welsh road building projects stopped after failing climate review”, The Guardian, 14-02-2023, available via https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/14/welsh-road-building-projects-stopped-failing-climate-review, accessed in March 2023.

53 Luke Fletcher, in Ben Summer, op. cit.

54 Bannau means “peaks” and “Brycheiniog” refers to the old kingdom of Wales’s 5th century ruler Brychan, so the new name means “the peaks of Brychan’s kingdom”. The national park authorities added the new name was also a response to the climate crisis and the park’s concern for the environment, as opposed to the industrial heritage represented by the name “beacons”. The authority also ditched the image of a burning beacon from its logo. It was similarly decided in November 2022 to call the national park of Snowdonia by its Welsh name, Eryri National Park.

55 Rishi Sunak, in Will Hayward, “Rishi Sunak says the people of Wales are ‘guinea pigs in Labour’s socialist experiment’”, WalesOnline, 28-04-2023, available via https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rishi-sunak-says-people-wales-26805487, accessed in April 2023.

56 Loc. cit.

57 Loc. cit.

58 Andrew RT Davies, in BBC, “Rishi Sunak: New PM a friend to Wales – top Welsh story”, 24-10-2022, available via https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-63377294, accessed in March 2023.

59 Ailsa Henderson & Richard Wyn Jones, op. cit., p. 7.

60 Iain McLean, “Can muscular unionism save the Union?”, op. cit.

61 Commission on the UK’s Future, op. cit., p. 6.

62 Ibid., p. 11.

63 Ibid., p. 7.

64 Ibid., p. 14.

65 Keir Starmer, in Will Hayward, “Keir Starmer refuses to commit to Wales getting share of HS2 funding”, WalesOnline, 11-03-2023, available via https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/kier-starmer-refuses-commit-wales-26448126, accessed in March 2023.

66 See Ailsa Henderson & Richard Wyn Jones, op. cit., p. 50.

67 Luke Fletcher, in Will Hayward, op. cit.

68 Iain McLean, “‘Muscular unionism’ is actually imperialism”, op. cit.

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Professeure de civilisation britannique à l’Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3

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