- 1 Wellbeing Economy Alliance, Wellbeing Economy Policy Design Guide, 2021, p. 5, https://wellbeingeco (...)
- 2 Jan Siebert, Lucas Bertram, Elizabeth Dirth, Jakob Hafele, Erich Castro and Jonathan Barth, Interna (...)
1Over recent years a movement has been building among policymakers and governments around the world to begin to incorporate a wellbeing approach into policy making. This momentum has been in the making since many of them have come to realise that the current and historic way of making, designing, and implementing policy is often not enabling progress on important social and environmental challenges, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and social polarisation. Many have identified taking a wellbeing approach to policymaking as a solution to designing policies which adequately address these challenges. As a result, around the world, governments are moving beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics and embracing new metrics of progress, from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by the United Nations to national wellbeing indicators. As indicated by the Wellbeing Economy Alliance, a leading global collaboration working together to catalyse economic systems change toward the realisation of a Wellbeing Economy, in its Wellbeing Economy Policy Guide, devised in March 2021, “this movement is significant, as it moves us beyond a focus on ‘means’, i.e. economic growth, to a focus on the achievement of ‘ends’, i.e. our collective wellbeing.”1 In 2018, in collaboration with the Wellbeing Economy Alliance, the governments of New Zealand, Finland, Wales, Iceland, and Scotland launched the Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo) partnerships to support one another to build economies that put the wellbeing of their people and the planet first. Interestingly, in January 2022, the ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies published a report, International Examples of a Wellbeing Approach in Practice, responding to the momentum within the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management to incorporate well-being policies. It provided an overview of specific cases of implementation of a well-being approach, including the Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG Act) adopted by the Welsh Parliament or Senedd in 2015,2 thus presented as a case study and a model for the Netherlands.
- 3 Carl Sargeant, “Oral Statement – The UN Goals and the Well Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act” (...)
- 4 See Jane Davidson, #futuregen, Chelsea Green Publishing UK, 2020.
2When the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act received Royal Assent in 2015, Carl Sargeant AM (Assembly Member), the sponsoring minister, declared: “By passing the Well-being of Future Generations Act, we have formally placed sustainable development at the heart of our public services and legislated for a set of goals – linked to the UN’s Global Goals – that set a clear path to a sustainable future.”3 The Act states that the effect of decisions on the needs of future generations must be factored into the decision-making process. It enshrines into law that the wellbeing of the current and future people of Wales is explicitly the core purpose of the government of Wales. The Welsh Act was described as not “just a law” but “the essence of culture” by Tim O’Riordan, Emeritus Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, and “a moral agenda” by Jane Davidson, former Welsh Minister instrumental in the passing of the act and now Chair of Wales Net Zero 2035.4
- 5 Wellbeing Economy Alliance, op. cit., p. 9.
3This article thus aims to analyse the wellbeing policy in Wales, especially through the design and implementation of the WFG Act, using the structure of the Wellbeing Economy Alliance’s Wellbeing Economy Policy Design Guide, to reflect on the process, implementation and impact of the Welsh act thanks to overarching principles, mainly: defining the vision, i.e. developing a framework that reflects local values, objectives and contexts; designing a strategy to foster the areas of economic life most important for a country’s wellbeing and implementing the necessary policies; and evaluating the policy impacts of those policies on wellbeing.5
- 6 In 2015, the UK committed to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, in a report (...)
- 7 Ibid., p. 14.
4Governments have taken different approaches to understanding well-being6: some use conceptual frameworks based on research on the determinants of well-being while others conduct public consultations. In the Wellbeing Economy Policy Design Guide, the Wellbeing Economy Alliance defines this concept in the following way: “Wellbeing is about our quality of life as individuals, communities and societies and how sustainable that will be in the future. It encompasses our personal and collective wellbeing as well as the wellbeing of planets, animals and our environment.”7 It is hence first necessary to study how the Welsh institutions have defined wellbeing. Throughout the entire process that led to the WFG Act, there was a strong focus on putting sustainable development at the heart of policy making. Only at a later stage of the process, following a public consultation called “The Wales We Want by 2050”, was the framing around wellbeing chosen since this was believed to better resonate with the public. As indicated in the quote given in introduction, wellbeing in Wales has always been closely associated with sustainable development, so that to understand the definition used in official documents by the Welsh institutions and associations, one must first consider the notion of sustainable development.
- 8 Great Britain, Government of Wales Act 1998, Chapter 38, Royal Assent (London, HMSO, 31 July 1998,) (...)
5To start with, Wales was the first nation in the Western world to have a duty to promote sustainable development explicitly stated in its founding constitution, as the Government of Wales Act 1998, setting up a National Assembly for Wales (NAW), now a Parliament, the Senedd, may be regarded. This principle is thus rooted in the very law that created the NAW in 1999. Section 121 of GOWA 1998 clearly stated: “The Assembly shall make a scheme setting out how it proposes, in the exercise of its function, to promote sustainable development.”8 The objective was to stop claiming that there was an either/or approach to the economy and the environment, in order to consider not just environmental and economic objectives, but also social welfare and justice. This was seen as possible through the prism of sustainable development. The Senedd hence adopted the most commonly-used definition of sustainable development from the Brundtland Commission, named for its chair, Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway, and which was published in Our Common Future in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. But it was more of a vision back then that had to be translated into actions, thanks to the first legislation in the world to protect future generations and their wellbeing. The GOWA 1998 set up a double obligation for the new Assembly: to devise a four-year sustainable development strategy and to review it each year.
6The first scheme, entitled Learning to Live Differently, was published in 2000. It was made up of four parts: a reminder of the duty, definition of sustainable development, a vision of a better Wales and finally how to implement it, and written in simple vocabulary. The very title is interesting since the ing-form indicates it is a process involving the population who is supposed to take an active part in this policy. “To live” means it is a real way of life, not just a way of running the country. The use of “Differently” underlines the fact that people will have to change their lifestyles, to make efforts to achieve this goal. The objective was to promote a new vision for Wales, set sustainable development at the heart of government, and develop a new collaborative approach, especially with civil society. At the heart of the new approach was a set of commitments to govern sustainably, which meant first a protected environment that could remain healthy and biologically diverse, then a self-sustaining economy respecting the environmental and social context of Wales, finally action to make Welsh communities strong and viable, and people healthier. There were already in this text hints of wellbeing.
7Starting to Live Differently was the second sustainable development scheme launched in March 2004. It aimed to make it clear that the NAW took its duty very seriously and was willing to deliver on the first scheme’s huge ambitions.
8The third scheme, One Wales, One Planet, officially announced in May 2009, was devised following the launch of WWF’s report One Planet Wales in 2007. Using the concept of the ecological footprint, the report calculated that if everyone in the world consumed natural resources and generated carbon dioxide at the rate existing in Wales, three planets would be necessary to support the world’s population. That led to the concept of “One Wales, One Planet” and a specific commitment to make sustainability the central organising principle of government. The aim for Wales was to become a one-planet nation within a generation, meaning that the average footprint should be reduced to a “One Planet” footprint.
9Following the 2011 referendum granting the NAW full law-making powers and the following Welsh elections, Peter Davies, the Sustainable Futures Commissioner, was charged by the new government with the responsibility to lead a year-long conversation with people across Wales, copying on the contemporaneous process “The World We Want” under way through the United Nations to replace the Millenium Development Goals (2000-2015) with the Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2030). The Conversation was launched on 18 February 2014 with the support of award-winning Welsh actor and UNICEF supporter Michael Sheen at a high-profile event held in Cardiff. The Wales We Want Report: A Report on Behalf of Future Generations, published in June 2014, identified the foundations of the wellbeing of future generations, as the necessity to have thriving communities built on a strong sense of place, to manage resources efficiently or to reduce inequality. The National Conversation was an important contribution towards the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 and the Well-being and Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
- 9 Welsh Government, Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014, The Essentials, Cardiff, Welsh G (...)
- 10 Ibid.
10The Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act, voted by the Senedd in 2014 and in force from April 2016, for the first time gives a definition of well-being in Wales, stating that “well-being means a person is happy, healthy and is comfortable with their life and what they do.”9 To support the act, the Welsh Government published a Well-being Statement setting out what this meant. It indicated wellbeing was made up of eight main parts: ensuring people’s rights are respected; being physically, mentally, and emotionally happy; being protected from abuse, harm and neglect; having access to education, training, sports and play; positive relationships with family and friends; being part of the community; having a social life and enough money to live a healthy life; having a good home.10
- 11 Welsh Government, Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015, Essentials Guide, (Cardiff, Welsh Gove (...)
- 12 Jane Davidson, op. cit., p. 111.
- 13 Welsh Government., How to measure a nation’s progress? National indicators for Wales, National Indi (...)
11Later in April 2015 the Senedd adopted the Well-being of Future Generations Act which is about “improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales”11, the definition chosen for sustainable development. The Act gives a legally-binding common purpose – the seven wellbeing goals – for national government, local government, local health boards and other specified public bodies. In brief, the wellbeing goals are: a prosperous Wales, a resilient Wales, a healthier Wales, a more equal Wales, a Wales of cohesive communities, a Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language, and a globally responsible Wales. To reach these goals, the Senedd identified “five ways of working”, as a guidance for the policy-making processes: thinking for the long-term, prevention, integration, collaboration and involvement. The Act hence deals with the usual three dimensions of wellbeing – environment, society, and economy – but also adds a fourth one, culture, the main issues being health and education with equal opportunities, cohesion, and culture. In her book #futuregen, Jane Davidson, at the origin of the Act as Minister for Environment, Sustainability and Housing in Wales, welcomed the addition of this fourth dimension: “I believed then and now that changing ‘culture’ (including history, heritage, identity, language and organisational culture) is the most powerful tool to create the marriage between evidence and empathy needed to enable the delivery of a future generations’ framework.”12 A total of 46 indicators were created, which are quantifiable and form part of the milestones, and enable monitoring of progress. Indicators are for instance “gender pay difference”, “the ecological footprint of Wales” and “healthy life expectancy at birth including the gap between the least and most deprived”13. The WFG Act instituted a Future Generations Commissioner, responsible for promoting sustainable development, acting as a guardian for future generations, encouraging public bodies to think in the longer term, and monitor and assess the objectives of the Future Generations Act. The Commissioner is appointed by a cross-party panel of Welsh Government, and has over 30 staff. The office of the Commissioner is independent of, but funded by, the Welsh Government, with the Wales Audit Office responsible for auditing. The Commissioner challenges public service boards and other public bodies who have responsibilities under the WFG Act. Reports are made and letters are sent to encourage good practice and ask for more progress in areas that require it. Sophie Howe, former Deputy Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales, became the first commissioner in February 2016 (she was replaced on 1 March 2023 by Derek Walker).
12Wales hence focused first on sustainable development before taking wellbeing, a more understandable concept for a majority of people, into consideration in its policies.
13Many governments face challenges when it comes to implementation, with a large gap between what was planned and what happens on the ground. For the purpose of this study, it may be interesting to focus on two major policies designed by the Senedd in relation with social and environmental aspects of wellbeing and, specifically, two goals, the first and fourth ones.
14In Essentials Guide, a summary of the Well-being and Future Generations Act 2015, “a prosperous Wales” is described in the following way:
- 14 Welsh Government, Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015, Essentials Guide, op. cit., p. 7.
An innovative, productive and low carbon society which recognises the limits of the global environment and therefore uses resources efficiently and proportionately (including acting on climate change); and which develops a skilled and well-educated population in an economy which generates wealth and provides employment opportunities, allowing people to take advantage of the wealth generated through securing decent work.14
15In the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, complementing the WFG Act, Wales committed to reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2030 through the introduction of a restrictive regulatory framework. Two years later, it already recorded a 31% decrease in its emissions compared with the 1990 reference level set up in the Kyoto Protocol-, partly thanks to the closing down of coal-fired power stations. In February 2021 the Welsh Government decided to commit further and published its Net Zero Wales Plan, “the start of our journey to net zero and a greener, stronger, fairer Wales”15 while preparing for COP 26 (26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties) held in Glasgow in November 2021. It planned to reduce carbon emissions by 63% by 2030, 89% by 2040, to reach 100%, i.e. zero net emissions by 2050. The move followed the publication of a report by the Climate Change Committee, an independent organisation, which indicated that the zero-emission objective that was seen as impossible to achieve according to experts could now be considered realistic thanks to an ambitious policy and collective contribution. The report also underlined the efforts that could be made by the industrial sector since a major part of Wales’s carbon emissions came from a limited number of industrial locations, as the Tata steelworks in Port Talbot. It led the Welsh Government to adopt a second carbon budget for 2021-2025, Net Zero Wales, and to set up in January 2023 the Wales Net Zero 2035 Group (delivering on a specific commitment in the formal Co-operation Agreement signed in November 2021 between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru, the nationalist party), made up of 25 independent, unpaid members, and led by former Environment Minister Jane Davidson. The Group is tasked with challenging the Welsh Government and the Senedd to go further and faster, finding the best examples of transformative change from Wales and around the world and bringing them to Wales, imagining what a fairer, more sustainable future looks like for the Welsh nation, and identifying a 10-year pathway of action from 2025-2035.16
16Lesley Griffiths, then Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs, welcomed the move:
- 17 Lesley Griffiths, in Welsh Government’s Press Release, “Wales commits to net zero by 2050, but sets (...)
We were the first country in the world to declare a climate emergency, but now we will use the new science to make our long-held ambition of a Net Zero Wales, a reality. While we have set our intention to achieve this by 2050 in law today, we will continue to do all we can to get there sooner. The global climate outlook is grave, and we will not shy away from stopping harmful emissions being pumped into our atmosphere and heating our planet. Business as usual is not an option. […]
While we are a small country, we punch big when it comes to doing the right thing. Wales was one of the worst recyclers in the world before devolution, and now it’s one of the best. We were central to the industrial revolution as we supplied the world with coal from our hillsides, but now we look to a future of green energy and jobs. We also banned fracking as we knew the risks to our environment and the safety to the people of Wales were far too high.
Perhaps most importantly, we are the first country in the world to have enshrined in law a Future Generations Act, ensuring that any decision the government makes today must be the right thing for our children and grandchildren, and their children too.17
17To reach net zero Wales, the Welsh Government announced a series of measures in different fields, especially transport and the industrial sector.
18According to Lee Waters, then Minister for Climate Change, transport was at the origin of 17% of the country’s carbon emissions, which led the Welsh Government to make an unusual decision in June 2021 when it announced its decision to suspend all new road building projects for the next 30 years and to set up a panel of experts to review the environmental cost of 59 planned road projects. Most of the schemes, including new bypasses, highways, and road expansions, were designed to relieve congestion. But the panel concluded that ultimately these projects would encourage more private car use long-term, fuelling yet more demand for new roads and preventing Wales from reaching its 2050 net zero emissions target. A general discussion about transport infrastructure was triggered by the plans to build a 14-mile relief road for the M4 around the city of Newport in South-East Wales. Because the project would have cost £1.4 billion and would have crossed the precious and historic landscape of the Gwent levels, it was rejected by the Welsh Government in June 2019. In its report published in February 2023, the panel gave the go-ahead to only 17 projects. The decision was praised by Glenn Lyons, a professor of future mobility at University of the West of England Bristol and a member of the expert panel, who explained:
- 18 Glenn Lyons, in Steven Morris, “Welsh road building projects stopped after failing climate review”, (...)
World-leading should be used sparingly but I have no hesitation in using it when it comes to the Welsh government and its willingness to step back, question what we’ve always done and ask whether a different way ahead is now needed for road investment.”18
19Yet, Lee Waters admitted it was a controversial decision, likely to arouse strong criticism: “It’s always difficult to make decisions with short-term pain for long-term gain.”19 Welsh opposition politicians, and even some members of the ruling Welsh Labour Party, said the government was ignoring the plight of communities living in areas experiencing a lot of traffic congestion. Others considered the government was taking away road investment without providing alternatives for reducing congestion.
20A similar situation unfolded in Scotland, where the opposite decision was taken. Scotland launched a National Performance Framework (NPF) in 2007 which set out eleven “National Outcomes” (resembling the Welsh wellbeing goals) and 81 national indicators used to measure the progress made against the National Outcomes. The National Outcomes are underpinned in statute by the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015, which places a duty on public authorities (and anybody with a public function) to have regard to the National Outcomes. An interesting development in Scotland has revealed significant differences between the Scottish NPF and the Welsh WFG Act in terms of their impact. Contrary to the decision to suspend road building in Wales, in 2008, the first Strategic Transport Projects Review recommended the dualling of the A9 motorway from Perth to Inverness, upgrading 83 miles (129 kilometres) of road from single to dual carriageway. Although the recommendation of the Strategic Transport Projects Review was based, among others, on a Strategic Environmental Assessment, there were strong arguments against the dualling of the A9. With a total estimated cost of £3.7 billion and the related climate effects from induced traffic, a cost-benefit analysis had shown that the total costs outweighed the total benefits. Nonetheless, the project was approved and is still in progress (completion in 2035).20 Comparing the Welsh WFG Act with the Scottish NPF raises the question of why all new road-building has been suspended in Wales while a road-building project with an unfavourable cost-benefit ratio continued in Scotland. The purpose of the NPF is to promote outcomes-based policy and to ensure public authorities have regard to the National Outcomes. In Wales, the strong legal basis of the Well-being of Future Generations Act enabled the Future Generations Commissioner to influence the decision-making process.
- 21 Department for Transport, Decarbonising Transport. A Better, Greener Britain, British Government, 2 (...)
- 22 Transport Action Network was created in 2019 to help local communities press for more sustainable t (...)
- 23 Helena Horton, “Road-building spree will derail UK’s net zero targets, warn campaigners”, The Guard (...)
- 24 Department for Transport, “New framework to ensure road and rail development projects protect the e (...)
21As for England, the Department for Transport published in 2021 a document entitled Decarbonising Transport. A Better, Greener Britain, in which the British Government presented a plan to reach net zero transport by 2040, a plan only concerning England since transport is a devolved matter21. Yet, in April 2023, campaigners such as Transport Action Network22 and Friends of the Earth denounced a “road-building spree”23 by the Department of Transport which, the previous month, had introduced a new policy requiring decision-makers to ignore the negative climate impact of road-building and traffic and to give weight to tree-planting schemes as a nature-based solution to climate change.24 They were still calling for a freeze on any new road-building, as in Wales.
- 25 See Ben Price, “Workers are leaving steel town as 2,000 jobs cuts loom”, BBC News, 14 May 2024, htt (...)
22The Welsh Government is also willing to curb carbon emissions from the industrial sector. When, on 15 September 2023, the UK Government and Tata Steel agreed on a plan which would see the two blast furnaces at Port Talbot replaced with electric arc furnaces, the Welsh Government should have rejoiced. The arc furnaces will cost £1.25 billion. The UK Government will pay £500 million and Tata will pay the remaining £750 million. According to the UK Government, the arc furnace proposal will secure 5,000 of the 8,000 jobs at risk across Tata Steel UK and many thousands more in the supply chain, while ensuring that steel continues to be made in Wales in the future. Trade unions worried that the increased autonomy of the electric arc furnace would lead to job losses. Unions presented the firm with a plan to keep one of the two blast furnaces open until 2032 in order to minimise job losses. The firm rejected the plan, announcing in January 2024 that they would close both blast furnaces, putting 3,000 jobs at risk. It illustrates how difficult it is to reconcile environmental, social and economic objectives. The plan would cut carbon emissions by 7% for the whole of the United Kingdom and 22% just for Wales, but by costing thousands of jobs. The Port Talbot Transition Board was set up by the UK Government, to be run jointly by the UK and Welsh Governments, and funded both by the UK Government (£80 million) and Tata Steels (£20 million) to deliver support for the people, businesses and communities directly affected by the proposed transition to low-CO₂ steelmaking at Port Talbot and a plan for local regeneration and economic growth for the next decade. The Board had met four times by the end of April 2024, recognising the urgency of the situation in Port Talbot. It was to present in the following weeks a Local Economic Action Plan. Yet, in early May, unions representing workers at Tata indicated talks had broken down. The looming mass job cuts are forcing workers to look for employment outside Wales, and Hinkley Point nuclear power station in Somerset, England, is one of the sites attracting steelworks contractors. Such a massive exodus may have a deep impact on community life since whole families are planning to leave Wales.25
- 26 Welsh Government, Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015, Essentials Guide, op. cit., p. 7.
- 27 Autonomy, A Future Fit for Wales, Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, Cardiff, November 2021 (...)
- 28 Ibid.
- 29 Statistics for Wales, Welsh Health Survey 2015: Health status, illnesses, and other conditions, Car (...)
- 30 Avoidable deaths are defined as either preventable or treatable for those aged under 75 years old, (...)
- 31 Ibid.
- 32 For more details, see Stéphanie Bory, “’I’m sure Aneurin Bevan would be turning in his grave’, Covi (...)
- 33 Op. cit., p. 96.
- 34 Op. cit., p. 111.
23The WFG Act’s vision for Wales in 2050 includes dramatic improvements in wellbeing that will require new policies in order to be achieved. More specifically, the fourth wellbeing goal is “a more equal Wales”, defined as “a society that enables people to fulfil their potential no matter what their background or circumstances (including their socio-economic background and circumstances).”26 The recent global interest in a basic income has presented an opportunity to move forward many of the goals defined in the act, such as “a more equal Wales” but also “a healthier Wales”. The many potential benefits brought about by basic income were acknowledged by Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, who published on 29 November 2021 a report she had commissioned from Autonomy, an independent think tank, entitled A Future Fit for Wales.27 This 200-page report listed all the positive outcomes a basic income scheme could deliver for Wales: it would first make it possible to curb poverty and inequality in Wales, then reduce welfare bureaucracy and respond to Wales’s uncertain economic future, and finally provide a healthier Wales and a Wales of cohesive communities28. It is worth reminding that Wales is faced with deprivation and severe socio-economic inequalities, resulting in more health issues in Wales, with 51% of all adults aged 16+ being treated for any illness in 2015.29 Furthermore, Wales has higher avoidable mortality rates30 than England or the UK at large, with a rate of 286.9 for 100,000 people, against 256.6 in England, in 2020. That year was already marked by Covid but the same gap between the two countries could be noticed the previous year: 258.5 for Wales against 220.9 for England.31 Such premature mortality in Wales is due to the social determinants of health, such as general socio-economic, cultural, and environmental factors, to which can be added employment and education opportunities, and the quality of housing. The gap in life expectancy between the least and most deprived population has been generally increasing in recent years for males and females, which is suggestive of growing inequality.32 Most of the outcomes defined in the report are also related to wellbeing and the goals defined in the WFG Act. The report also set out two models for a possible pilot scheme, both far more extensive than the one eventually proposed by the Welsh Government. The “Model 1 introductory basic income” would have cut poverty in Wales by 50% and substantially reduced inequality while costing around £6 billion annually, paid for via reforms to the tax system in Wales or small reallocations of the UK spending budget.33 The “Model 2 basic income” would have “wiped out poverty in Wales entirely”, since it was to be a more substantial scheme with payments covering many of the basic costs of life in modern Wales for a net cost of nearly £30 billion.34
- 35 See Welsh Government, “Wales pilots Basic Income scheme”, press release, 28 June 2022, https://www. (...)
- 36 Ibid.
- 37 Jack Sargeant, in Steven Morris, “Basic Income Pilot Scheme for care leavers to be trialled in Wale (...)
- 38 Luke Fletcher, in BBC, “Basic income: Wales pilot offers £1,600 a month to care leavers”, 16 Februa (...)
24In May 2021, Mark Drakeford, then First Minister of Wales, had announced that the Welsh Government intended to set up a UBI pilot scheme, officially presented in the Programme for Government 2021-2026 in February 2022. This three-year measure, seen as “radical”35 by the government, meant unconditionally giving £1,600 each month for two years to all care leavers turning 18. The objective was to support them as they were making their transition to adult life and “provide independence and security to people who have faced immense challenges during their childhood, giving them greater control and empowering them to make decisions about their future.”36 Welsh officials also committed to provide extra support for those taking part, such as financial wellbeing training. It was officially launched in July 2022 and came to include 635 young people. According to Jack Sargeant, member of the Senedd, who presided the first debate on the issue in the Senedd: “This is an incredibly bold move from a Welsh government that is leading the world in this area. We now need to ensure that we learn all we can from this trial. This is a real opportunity to show things can be different.”37 Plaid Cymru's economy spokesman Luke Fletcher said it was a step in the right direction but needed a “structure around it to enable it to meet the ambition of addressing poverty and unemployment, as well as improving health and financial wellbeing.”38
25Finland, a member along with Wales of the WEGo partnership, was the first European country to introduce a UBI scheme in early 2017 by giving an income of €560 to 2,000 people who were unemployed when picked up, but the scheme was dropped 18 months later when the government concluded that the scheme did not encourage beneficiaries to look for a job. A similar scheme was set up in England in June 2023, but it only concerned 30 people.
- 39 Ángel Gurría, in Wellbeing Economy Alliance, Wellbeing Economy Policy Design Guide, op. cit., p. 40
26According to Ángel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General, “Improving the quality of our lives should be the ultimate target of public policies. But public policies can only deliver the best fruit if they are based on reliable tools to measure the improvement they seek to produce in our lives.”39 It is thus necessary to measure and assess the impact of measures meant to enhance wellbeing, in order to support effective policy development. As one moves beyond GDP as the major indicator of progress, one will want to develop new wellbeing measurements. Developing wellbeing indicators can help one to better understand the current level of wellbeing and track its performance over time.
27In 2015, Wales put forth a Wellbeing Vision of improving:
- 40 Jack Sargeant, in “Welsh Petitions Committee”, op. cit., p. 5.
the way in which decisions are made across specified public bodies in Wales, so that Wales became prosperous, resilient, healthier, more equal and globally responsible, with a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language.40
28In working to achieve this vision, the Welsh Government required all Ministers to propose indicators to measure progress in these areas. A key principle for selecting indicators was “effective communication”, to ensure better transparency and engagement with the public in pursuing the wellbeing goals.
- 41 Source: Public Policy Institute for Wales, Measuring progress towards the achievement of Wales’s we (...)
29On the basis of these principles, the Welsh government ended up identifying 46 – 50 in 2023 with the addition of new ones – national indicators to measure performance toward their seven wellbeing areas. These indicators are gathered throughout the year and annually published, and they include quantitative & qualitative (e.g. survey-based) data.41 As a consequence, the impact of the policies presented in the second part should be assessed.
30Several wellbeing indicators are directly related to carbon emissions: n°4 which is the levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution in the air; n°14, i.e. the global footprint of Wales; n°41, the emissions of greenhouse gases within Wales; n°42, the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions attributed to the consumption of global goods and services in Wales; and n°48, the percentage of journeys by walking, cycling or public transport.
- 42 Welsh Government, Wellbeing of Wales 2023, Cardiff, Welsh Government, 2023, p. 48.
- 43 Ibid., p. 49.
31In Wellbeing of Wales, 2023, published in September 2023 by the Welsh Government to assess progress against the seven wellbeing goals defined in the WFG Act, it was stated that, overall, greenhouse gas emissions had fallen by 35% since the base year (1990)42. Emissions from the business sector accounted for just under a quarter of Welsh territorial emissions (24%) in 2021, the second largest source of emissions in Wales after the energy supply sector. Emissions from the business sector had decreased by 29% since 1990 predominantly due to a reduction in emissions from the iron and steel industry. The majority, around 60% in 2021, of business emissions came from the iron and steel industry. A national indicator on the percentage of journeys by walking, cycling or public transport was added to the national indicator set in December 2021. This data was to be sourced from a National Travel Survey for Wales. As in most other parts of the UK outside London, private road transport remained the dominant mode of travel and accounts for the overwhelming majority of commuting journeys in Wales since there was no evidence of the shift away from cars.43
- 44 Michael Sheen, in BBC, “Steelworks is my hometown’s North Star”, (18 January 2024), https://www.bbc (...)
- 45 Statistics for Wales, Labour Market Overview, February 2024, SB 4/2024, Welsh Government, 15 Februa (...)
- 46 Ibid., p. 21.
32Furthermore, as seen in the second part, it may be difficult to reconcile environmental and economic stakes, as illustrated by the current developments at Tata Steelworks in Port Talbot. According to Welsh Hollywood star Michael Sheen, “Port Talbot’s Steelworks is the town’s North Star”44, with many families’ lives depending on the industrial site, be it directly or indirectly, which means that the transition to green steel will have a strong impact on the wellbeing of local communities. In December 2023, the unemployment rate in Wales was 3.5%, compared to 3.8% in the UK as a whole.45 Yet, the economic inactivity rate has been constantly increasing since 2018 (26.2%) and generally remains above the UK rate (21.9%). The endemic deprivation affecting Wales is reflected in the number of people on Universal Credit, a benefit rolled out since 2013 and replacing a number of means-test benefits. Since December 2021, the number has generally risen to a new high of 318,300 in January 2024, as opposed to around 80,000 people in January 2019, out of a total population of 3.1 million people.46
33The New Zealand Government, a member of WEGo, identified a trade-off between their environmental and social wellbeing goals, as they were concerned that a transition to a zero-carbon economy could threaten the employment and livelihoods of people currently working in the oil and gas sector. As a result, the government set up a “Just Transition Unit” in May 2018, operating by creating partnerships in communities undergoing a major transition. As part of its climate change programme, the Government stopped issuing new permits for offshore oil and gas exploration in 2018. That policy has a large impact on economic security in the Taranaki region, which has supported oil and gas exploration off the west coast of the North Island of New Zealand for several decades. The Just Transitions Unit has worked in that region, with a particular focus on its energy sector in a low emissions future. The people of Taranaki created the content of the Taranaki 2050 (T2050) Roadmap, the long-term vision for the region “to achieve an equitable, productive, and sustainable low-emissions economy by 2050,”47 published in August 2019. The New Zealand Government has directly supported the T2050 process with over $1.6 million in funding and staff in the region. The transition pathway action plans (TPAP), as Infrastructure and Transport TPAP or Health and Wellbeing TPAP, were finalised by August 2020 and the focus ever since has been on the implementation of the programme.48
- 49 Vaughan Gething in Teleri Glyn Jones, “Port Talbot: Tata workers’s £100m fund is enough, says minis (...)
34The Port Talbot Transition Board, that could be compared to the “Just Transition Unit”, met for the first time on 19 October 2023 at the company’s Port Talbot site where it agreed the ways of working, its terms of reference and membership of the board. The Transition Board was to have access to up to £100m, as indicated earlier, to invest in skills and regeneration programmes for the local area. It was to focus on immediate support for the people, businesses and communities affected by the plan, and a plan for local regeneration and economic growth for the next decade. In October 2023, Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies chaired the Transition Board, while the Welsh Government’s Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and Michael Gove, the UK Secretary of State for Levelling Up, were deputy chairs. Even if the Transition Board was set up very recently, it seems that, when compared with the “Just Transition Unit” in New Zealand, it has very limited objectives. The main focus is indeed on reskilling workers even if some of the money may be used for infrastructure projects to attract investment, rather than on a longer-term wide-ranging vision for the whole area. Vaughan Gething announced in January 2024 that if the UK Labour Party won the next general election, due to be scheduled by the end of 2024, a £3 billion green deal fund “was on the table to assist in a transition that is a generally just transition”,49 hence echoing the New Zealand model.
- 50 Welsh Parliament Petitions Committee, A UBI Pilot for Wales, Welsh Parliament, Cardiff, January 202 (...)
- 51 Ibid., p. 12. See also BBC, “Wales’ universal basic income pilot too small – report”, 18 January 20 (...)
- 52 Welsh Parliament Petitions Committee, op. cit., p. 4.
35As early as January 2022, the Welsh Parliament’s petitions committee published a report on UBI, prompted by a petition signed between August and November 2021 by 1,051 people and making several recommendations to the Welsh Government, already pinpointing the drawbacks of the scheme under preparation. If Members of the Senedd on the committee, including two from Welsh Labour, one Plaid Cymru and one Conservative, indicated that recipients in the Finnish experiment were found to be “more satisfied with their lives and experience less mental strain”50, they also considered a larger group would provide “more robust results”.51 Indeed, the scheme was regularly criticised for not actually being universal. Next, they called for a geographically-based scheme.52 The authors finally recommended a thorough evaluation of the pilot that would consider all seven wellbeing goals. Committee chairman Jack Sargeant said:
- 53 Jack Sargeant, in “Welsh Petitions Committee”, op. cit., p. 5.
The Welsh government should investigate increasing the number of proposed recipients and include care leavers from as diverse as possible a range of backgrounds, locations, and circumstances to give us the evidence we need to properly evaluate this scheme.53
- 54 Jack Sargeant, in “Welsh Petitions Committee”, op. cit., p. 5.
36He added the evidence “may prove that UBI is an inefficient way to target those in the greatest need – or it may prove my own view that the benefits attributed to other experiments, in terms of wellbeing and economic outcomes, are achievable here in Wales”.54 The report was thus highlighting in advance the potential limits of the pilot scheme. In December 2023, the Welsh Government announced it intended to stop the scheme at the end of the three-year experiment due to the heavy cost it represented in an uncertain economic context, despite the first positive assessments.
37Furthermore, in its assessment of wellbeing published in 2023, Wellbeing of Wales, 2023, the Welsh Government admitted poverty was still a major issue in Wales, mostly affecting children:
- 55 Welsh Government, op. cit., p. 98.
Children continue to be the population group most likely to be in relative income poverty. Latest figures show that this was the case for 28% of children in Wales compared to 18% of pensioners.55
38It added that:
In 2022-23, 16% of adults were classed as materially deprived (that is, unable to afford certain things such as keeping the house warm enough, making regular savings, or having a holiday once a year). Over half (56%) of single parents were in material deprivation in 2022-23 and 3% of households said they had received food from a food bank during 2022-23.56
39These figures reveal that the Welsh Government’s policies have so far failed to reduce poverty, especially in the context of the inflation crisis.
- 57 Nikhil Seth, in Public Health Wales, Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015: For a Happi (...)
40The WFG Act was presented by the Welsh Government as a radical and ambitious programme, setting a model for other European, even international countries. Nikhil Seth, the Head of Sustainable Development for the United Nations, in a speech about the WFG Act he delivered in Wales when the Act was officially launched on 29 April 2016, proclaimed: “What Wales is doing today, we hope the world will do tomorrow, action more than words is the hope for our future generations.”57 It was thus hailed as a legislative, constitutional and sustainable landmark. Yet, several years later, its impact seems to be limited, as underlined in the first pages of Wellbeing of Wales, 2023, previously mentioned. The authors list the main points of the conclusions and give a mitigated assessment of the progress made against the goals. Such a limited impact can be partly explained by economic, political and constitutional obstacles, as illustrated by the following two examples.
- 58 The Barnett formula applies only to expenditure on issues for which the devolved administrations (a (...)
- 59 See The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, Interim Report, Table 1: The (...)
- 60 See Wales Governance Centre, Written Evidence to the HC Welsh Affairs Select Committee, March 2021, (...)
41As seen before, transport is a major part of Net-Zero Wales policies aiming to reach zero carbon emissions by 2050. Yet, this is a partially devolved matter and a specific programme has become a bone of contention between the UK and the Welsh Governments: High Speed (HS) 2, a high-speed railway line that was initially to connect London to the North-West of England, especially Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds (the connection to Manchester and Leeds was later cancelled), and possibly cities in Scotland. It is supposed to begin running between 2029 and 2033 when Phase 1 is complete. It was delayed by two years due to soaring costs and it may be further delayed to 2041. The HS2 service will not travel through Wales, yet the UK Government has classed it as an “England and Wales” project. This means that Wales will not get extra money, or consequentials in the Barnett formula,58 estimated at £5bn, to spend on transport, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland since it entails a 0% programme comparability factor.59 The whole issue unveils the complexity of the management of railways in Wales, hence of the devolution model. Indeed, the Wales Act 2017 – more precisely Schedule 7A, Part II, Head E – giving Wales a reserved powers model like Scotland prescribed those areas reserved to the UK Parliament, including some road and rail transport, and almost all aviation, maritime, and transport security matters. Similarly, infrastructure planning and the funding of Network Rail in Wales remain reserved, unlike in Scotland60. In a 2019 report entitled A Railway for Wales: meeting the needs of future generations, the Welsh Government made the case for full devolution of rail infrastructures, not obtained so far. Wales thus has limited powers to invest in public transport policies that contribute to improving the wellbeing of its inhabitants.
42Similarly, the Welsh Government had to face further obstacles when it announced it planned to introduce UBI since the full implementation of a basic income scheme falls outside the current legislative prerogatives of the Welsh Government. Indeed, in the Welsh devolution constitutional settlement, welfare and social security remain reserved powers of the UK Government while welfare powers have been granted to Scotland since 2016. What’s more, the Senedd has limited financial and borrowing powers, making it difficult to subsidise such a costly scheme. The fact that welfare and social security policies are not devolved meant that it was essential for the Welsh Government to have its UBI pilot scheme approved by the UK Government, to make sure participants were not going to lose other benefits when being granted this extra income, as indicated in the report published in January 2022 by the Welsh Parliament Petitions Committee:
- 61 Welsh Parliament Petitions Committee, op. cit., p. 6.
We also urge the Welsh Government to make every effort to secure the support of UK Government agencies from the outset of, and throughout the lifetime of, the pilot. Participants in any pilot scheme should be no worse off than if they had not participated. It would undermine the project if participants lost entitlements they currently claim as a direct result of a failure to communicate between the two governments.61
43As early as February 2022, the authors of the report also underlined the fact, that developing such a pilot scheme within the existing devolution settlement was not going to be straightforward. They recommended the devolution of the administration of welfare.
44To conclude, the Well-being of Future Generations Act represented a landmark in the work of the Senedd, and an opportunity for Wales to pave the way in this new approach. Taking into account the wellbeing of all generations in the decision-making process was a question of sustainability, since the GOWA 1998 put a legal obligation on the Welsh institutions to respect it; economics, considering the necessary investments to promote wellbeing; law with the legal framework hence created for the public sector; morality, with the most important sense of solidarity pervading Welsh communities; and obviously politics.
45Since 2015, the Welsh Government has launched several ambitious and radical programmes to improve the wellbeing of people in the country, such as Net-Zero Wales or the UBI pilot scheme. Yet, they have failed so far to fully meet targets, particularly due to economic, political and constitutional obstacles. Some fields such as social policy are still reserved, making it difficult for the Welsh Government to fully make its own decisions and obliging Welsh politicians to collaborate with the UK Government in a tense context.
46It remains to be seen if the newly chosen First Minister of Wales, former Minister of health, then economy, will better manage to promote wellbeing in Wales. One may thus wonder whether independence for Wales would be the only way for the country to reach its ambitious objective of ensuring the wellbeing of its inhabitants, as stated by advocates of Welsh independence.
Stéphanie Bory is Professor in British Civilisation at Jean Moulin-Lyon 3 University where she has been teaching since 2001, first to business students, then in the Law Faculty. She has been part of the Language Faculty since 2009. In 2008, she was awarded a PhD on the environmental policy of the National Assembly for Wales and is a member of the Institute for Transtextual and Transcultural Studies. She works on environmentalism as well as nationalism, especially in Wales. She convened two international conferences on these topics in Lyon 3 and has published more than 20 articles. She co-directed three issues of the RFCB, as well as two issues of the Observatoire de la société britannique. In 2019 she published a book on Welsh devolution, 20 years after the Government of Wales Act 1998, L’Eveil du dragon gallois. D’une assemblée à un parlement pour le pays de Galles (1997-2017).