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Economic evaluation of autonomous passenger transportation services: a systematic review and meta-analysis of simulation studies

Evaluation économique des services de transport de passagers autonomes : une revue systématique et une meta-analyse des résultats des simulations
Félix Carreyre, Nicolas Coulombel, Jaâfar Berrada et Laurent Bouillaut
p. 89-138

Résumé

In order to prepare for their deployment, mobility simulations have been used since the mid-2010s to investigate the effects of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) services. The aim of this study is to provide a review of which impacts were considered in simulation studies, to what extent, and for which results, with an emphasis on economic impacts. Taking cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a reference framework for the economic evaluation of mobility services, we first establish a list of standard impact indicators in CBA studies. We carry out a descriptive statistical analysis to investigate the use of these indicators, completed by a meta-analysis for the indicators that received sufficient coverage from the literature. The results show evidence of strong use of performance and operational indicators in the simulation literature, but also expose a lack of in-depth analysis concerning environmental and social indicators. With regard to the intensity of impacts, the introduction of autonomous taxis should increase vehicle- kilometers traveled (VKT) by +23% and travel time by +17% compared to conventional private cars. At the same time, it could help to cut 17% of the present fleet size. This performance could be improved if autonomous taxis were shared, limiting the increase of VKT to +6% at the cost of only slightly longer travel times (+20% instead of +17%), while also increasing fleet reduction by up to -55%. Compared to conventional bus or train lines, these on-demand AV services could permit travel time to be reduced by half and could also reduce financial operating costs. On the other hand, they would increase fleet size and VKT by three to seven times their initial values. AV impacts could vary considerably depending on the socioeconomic landscape of the implementation area. Our findings call for evaluating AV services from a wider perspective than operational and financial prisms alone as is currently the case, such as using cost-benefit analysis.
JEL classification: H43, L92, L91.

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Plan

1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Corpus selection
2.1.1. Search strategy
2.1.2. Screening
a. First corpus
b. Second corpus
2.2. Service nomenclature
2.3. Descriptive statistical analysis
2.3.1. Selection and classification of the indicators
2.3.2. Model types
2.4. Meta-analysis
2.4.1. Selection of indicators
2.4.2. Data extraction
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Descriptive statistical analysis
3.1.1. KPI occurrences
a. Results
b. Discussion
3.1.2. Model types
a. Results
b. Discussion
3.2. Meta-analysis of AV Impacts
3.2.1. Results
3.2.2. Discussion
4. Conclusion

Aperçu du texte

1. Introduction

As autonomous vehicles (AV) are becoming more of a reality, with significant technological progress (Pendleton et al., 2017) and numerous experiments (Antonialli, 2019; Stocker and Shaheen, 2019) being led across the world, an increasing number of studies are investigating the economic benefits as well as the costs that can be expected from the development of AV services. These studies have shown that the introduction of such services will have relatively diverse impacts (Narayanan et al., 2020). First, by making the act of driving no longer necessary, users will be able to engage in other activities, such as leisure or work, while sitting in their autonomous car. This is predicted to result in a weakening of the value of travel time savings for private mobility (Correia et al., 2019; Kolarova et al., 2019; Berrada et al., 2020), and subsequently in a reduction in the generalized cost of travel. Regarding public transportation (including taxis and ride-hailing), the a...

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Référence papier

Félix Carreyre, Nicolas Coulombel, Jaâfar Berrada et Laurent Bouillaut, « Economic evaluation of autonomous passenger transportation services: a systematic review and meta-analysis of simulation studies »Revue d'économie industrielle, 178-179 | 2022, 89-138.

Référence électronique

Félix Carreyre, Nicolas Coulombel, Jaâfar Berrada et Laurent Bouillaut, « Economic evaluation of autonomous passenger transportation services: a systematic review and meta-analysis of simulation studies »Revue d'économie industrielle [En ligne], 178-179 | 2e et 3e trimestres 2022, mis en ligne le 01 janvier 2026, consulté le 23 juillet 2024. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/rei/11536 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/rei.11536

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Auteurs

Félix Carreyre

VEDECOM, 23 bis allée des Marronniers, Versailles 78000, France
LVMT, Ecole des Ponts, Université Gustave Eiffel, Marne-la-Vallée, France

Nicolas Coulombel

LVMT, Ecole des Ponts, Université Gustave Eiffel, Marne-la-Vallée, France

Jaâfar Berrada

VEDECOM, 23 bis allée des Marronniers, Versailles 78000, France

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Laurent Bouillaut

Université Gustave Eiffel, COSYS/GRETTIA, Marne-la-Vallée, France

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Le texte seul est utilisable sous licence CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Les autres éléments (illustrations, fichiers annexes importés) sont « Tous droits réservés », sauf mention contraire.

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