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Top of page
Notes
With one major exception. The Tories’ late campaign claim that a minority Labour government propped up by the SNP would seriously destabilise the UK seemed to have persuaded many swing voters to rally behind them.
By “succeed” I mean gain more than 34% to 35% of the vote.
D. SANDERS et al., “Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice”, British Journal of Political Science, vol. 41, no. 2, 2011, p 288.
See, e.g., P WHITELEY et al., “The Issue Agenda and Voting in 2005”, Parliamentary Affairs vol. 58, n° 4, 2005.
H. CLARKE et al. Political Choice in Britain, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004, p. 28.
YouGov poll, Sunday Times 16 November 2014.
It is worth noting here that Osborne recruited an ex BBC producer to address his own lack of personal appeal – in his case with a considerable degree of success.
M. HASAN AND J. MACINTRYRE, Ed: The Milibands, London: Biteback Publishing, 2012, p.305.
In January 2015 one political editor congratulated Miliband after an effectively-delivered speech but then added “I’m sorry about all the terrible things we are now going to write about you.” R. BEHR, “The Making of Ed Miliband”, Guardian April 15 2015.
M. HASAN AND J. MACINTRYRE, op. cit. pp. 240-1,326; T. BALE, Five Year Mission: The Labour party under Ed Miliband, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015, p. 86; Guardian 10 November 2014; conversation with senior political journalist.
S. RICHARDS, “The mood around Ed Miliband is one of paranoia and suspicion”, New Statesman, 3 April 2014.
P. KELLNER, “Round One to Miliband”, 29 March 2015. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/30/round-one-miliband/YouGov. Accessed 7 April 2015.
WHITELEY et al., 2005, op. cit. pp. 803-4.
P. KELLNER, “Osborne’s two-stage Budget gamble”, YouGov. 23 March 2015. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/23/osbornes-two-stage-budget-gamble/. Accessed 25 March 2015
See e.g. Stewart (Lord) WOOD, “We need to talk about the “Middle””, Open Democracy, 15 February 2013). https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/stewart-wood/we-need-to-talk-about-middle. Accessed 16 March 2015. Wood was Miliband’s senior economic advisor.
THE GUARDIAN, 17 November 2011.
HASAN AND MACINTRYRE op. cit. p. 322.
BALE op. cit. pp 76-7; Independent 6 Feb. 2015; Independent on Sunday 8 February 2015.
G. COOKE et al, In the Black Labour: Why fiscal conservatism and social justice go hand-in-hand, London: Policy Network, 2011, p3. See also P. DIAMOND AND G. RADICE, Southern Discomfort One Year On, London: Policy Network, 2011; BALE op. cit. p. 73; Martin KETTLE Guardian 11 December 2014.
THE FINANCIAL TIMES, 22 September 2014; Chris LESLIE MP, Shadow Treasury Minister, Guardian 30 May 2014.
THE FINANCIAL TIMES, 10 March 2014; Guardian 22 September 2014.
Cited in The Observer 1 February 2015.
These included the 50% additional rate of income tax, cuts to pension tax credit for higher earners, higher taxes on tobacco companies and hedge funds and a windfall levy on bankers’ bonuses.
Ed MILIBAND, speech to the Welsh Labour Annual Conference, 14 February 2015; Guardian 8 April 2015.
THE GUARDIAN, 13 April 2013; Labour Party Manifesto, Britain Can Be Better, London: Labour party.
YouGov. “Government Spending Cuts”, 20 February 2015 https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2r9kn9ifym/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190215.pdf; Accessed 27 February 2015.
YouGov. “Daily Briefing”, 15 April 2015. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4eu9xrll80/TimesRedBoxResults_150414_Labour_borrowing_Website.pdf Accessed 17 April 2015.
R. FORD, R. MORRELL AND A. HEATH, ““Fewer but better”? Public views about immigration” in A. PARK et al. (eds.), British Social Attitudes: the 29th Report London: NatCen Social Research, 2012. “Immigrants” is a term loosely used in popular parlance to include asylum-seekers, EU migrants and indeed members of ethnic minorities born in the UK.
Lord ASHCOFT, Small Island: Public Opinion and the Politics of Immigration, 2011. http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/LORD-ASHCROFT-Public-opinion-and-the-politics-of-immigration2.pdf. Accessed 14 March 2015.
FORD et al., op. cit. p33; G. EVANS AND K. CHZHEN, “Explaining Voters’ Defection from Labour over the period 2005–10” Political Studies, vol. 61, n° S1, 2113, p150; S. CAREY and A. GEDDES, “Less Is More: Immigration and European Integration at the 2010 General Election” Parliamentary Affairs, vol. 63, n° 4, 2010, p. 853.
DIAMOND AND RADICE op. cit. p. 19.
Matthew GOODWIN and Caitlin MILAZZO, Guardian 24 June 2014.
Ed MILIBAND, Acceptance speech to Labour party conference, Sept. 2010 http://www2.labour.org.uk/ed-miliband---a-new-generation. Accessed 12 March 2015.
Ed MILIBAND, Speech on immigration to Institute of Public Policy Research, June 2012.
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/06/22/ed-miliband-s-immigration-speech-in-full. Accessed 9 April 2015.
LABOUR PARTY, 2015, op. cit. pp. 49-50.
Cited in R PHILPOTT, “The politics of delusion” Progress, 15 May, 2015.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2015/05/15/the-politics-of-delusion/. Accessed 27 May 2015.
Mark FERGUSON, Labour List, November 13, 2013
MILIBAND, 2012, op. cit.
YouGov. 26 June 2013 https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/az5cybaaw2/YouGov-IPPR-results-130606-Welfare.pdf. Accessed 28 June 2015.
J CURTICE and R ORMSTON, (eds.) (2015) British Social Attitudes: The 32nd Report, London: NatCen Research, pp. 78-9.
R. M. ENTMAN, “Framing: Towards Clarification of a Fractured Paradigm”, Journal of Communication, vol. 43, n° 4, 1993, p. 52.
PARK et al., op. cit.; P. TAYLOR-GOOBY, “Why Do People Stigmatise the Poor at a Time of Rapidly Increasing Inequality, and What Can Be Done About It?”, Political Quarterly vol. 84, n° 1, 2013; J. H. McKENDRICK et al., The media, poverty and public opinion in the UK, London: Rowntree Foundation, 2008 http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/2224-poverty-media-opinion.pdf p. 50. Accessed 17 March 2015.
CURTICE and ORMSTON, op. cit. p. 82.
E. CLERY, L. LEE and S. KUNZ, Tough on People in Poverty, London: Rowntree Foundation, 2013, http://www.jrf.org.uk/media-centre/tough-attitudes-poverty. Accessed 18 March 2015; TAYLOR-GOOBY op. cit. ; CURTICE and ORMSTON, op. cit. p. 82.
McKENDRICK et al., op. cit.
L. BYRNE, “Why did Labour Lose? and How Do We Win Again?” 2010.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2010/05/20/why-did-labour-lose-and-how-do-we-win-again/. Accessed 6 January 2015.
T. BALE, 2015, op. cit. , p. 150.
P. DIAMOND AND G. RADICE, Southern Discomfort Again, London: Policy Network, 2010
pp. 26, 9.
C. LEADBETTER, “Back to the Future”, Marxism Today, May 1989 p15.
H BEIDER, “Whiteness, Class and Grassroots Perspectives on Social Change and Difference”, Political Quarterly, vol. 85, n° 3, 2014.
P. TOYNBEE, Guardian 6 January 2012.
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 26 Sep 2011; see also BALE, 2015, op. cit., p. 83.
THE GUARDIAN, 25 March 2015.
T BALE, “Concede and Move On? One Nation Labour and the Welfare State”, Political Quarterly, vol. 84 n° 3, 2013, p. 344.
B. DUFFY, “Perceptions and Reality: Ten Things We Should Know about Attitudes to Immigration in the UK”, Political Quarterly, vol. 85, n° 3, 2014, p. 260.
P.KELLNER, YouGov. 13 Jan. 2014, “Welfare tourism: crisis, what crisis?”
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/13/welfare-tourism-crisis-what-crisis/. Accessed 19 March 2015.
C. DUSTMANN and T. FRATTINI, “The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK”, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, Discussion Paper Series CDP No 22/13, 2013, p. 27.
M MANACORDA, A MANNING and J WADSWORTH, “The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain,” Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 10, n° 1, 2012 p. 27.
DUFFY, op. cit., pp. 261, 260.
THE INDEPENDENT, 4 January 3013.
BAPTIST UNION of Great Britain, METHODIST CHURCH, CHURCH OF SCOTLAND and the UNITED REFORM CHURCH, The lies we tell ourselves: ending comfortable myths about poverty, 2013, pp20, 26. http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/files/truth_and_lies_report_final.pdf Accessed 20 February 2015.
M. AUGUSTINOS and I. WALKER, Social Cognition: An integrated introduction, London: Sage, 1995, p. 42. See also P. CONOVER and S. FELDMAN, “How People Organise the Political World: A Schematic Model”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 28, n° 1, 1984.
AUGUSTINOS and I WALKER, op. cit. p. 68.
I. CRESPI, The Public Opinion Process, London: Routledge, 1997, p. 36; D. SWANSON, “A Constructivist Approach” in D. NIMMO and K. SANDERS (eds.), Handbook of Political Communication, Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1981, p. 177; D. BROUGHTON, Public Opinion Polling and Politics in Britain, London: Prentice-Hall, 1995, p. 187.
B. GUNTER, Poor Reception, London: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1987, p. 108. See also J. P. ROBINSON and M. R. LEVY, The Main Source: Learning from Television News, London: Sage, 1986.
P. M. SNIDERMAN, R. A. BRODY and P. E. TETLOCK, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, pp. 9, 22; J. R. ZALLER, The Nature and Origins of Public Opinion, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, p. 18.
R. E. PETTY and J. T. CACIOPPO, Communication and Persuasion: Central and peripheral routes to attitude change, Springer Science & Business Media, 2012, p7 R. E. PETTY and J. T. CACIOPPO, “The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion”, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, vol. 19, Academic Press, 1986 p. 129.
PETTY and CACIOPPO, 2012, op. cit. p. 13, 158; PETTY and CACIOPPO, 1986, op. cit. p. 125.
SNIDERMAN et al., op. cit. p. 87.
D MATTINSON and Z TYNDALL “Meet the Swing Voters”, Progress, December, 2013.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/12/01/meet-the-swing-voters/. Accessed 20 January 2015.
Sun 24 May 2014.
THE DAILY MAIL, 24 May 214.
V. PRICE and D. F. ROBERTS “Public Opinion Processes” in R. BERGER and S. CHAFFEE (eds.), Handbook of Communication Science, Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1987, pp. 783-4.
P. L. HAMMACK and A. PILECKI “Narrative as a Root Metaphor for Political Psychology”, Political Psychology, vol. 33, n° 1 2012, p. 82.
CRESPI, op. cit. p11.
STUART HALL, “The rediscovery of ideology”, in M. GUREVITCH et al. (eds.), Culture, Society and the Media, London, Methuen, 1982, pp. 64, 67.
HAMMACK and PILECKI, op. cit.
A. FINLAYSON, “From Beliefs to Arguments: Interpretive Methodology and Rhetorical Political Analysis”, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, vol. 9, n° 4, 2007, p. 557.
F. FISCHER, Reframing Public Policy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 144.
HAMMACK and PILECKI, op. cit., p87.
T. LEEPER and R. SLOTHUUS, “Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Public Opinion Formation”, Advances in Political Psychology, vol. 35, Suppl. 1, 2014, p. 132.
D. A. STONE, “Causal Stories and the Formation of Policy Agendas”, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 104, n° 2, 1989, pp. 282-3.
ENTMAN, op. cit. p. 52.
D. SCHON and M. REIN, Frame Reflection, New York: Basic Books, 1994, p. 26.
D. WESTERN, The Political Brain, New York: Public Affairs, 2007, p. 146.
W. KEEGAN, Mr Osborne’s Economic Experiment, London: Searching Finance Ltd, 2014; D. SPENCER, State of the Nation: a dismal record for the UK economy, 2015. https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-nation-a-dismal-record-for-the-uk-economy-39675. Accessed 20 May 2015.
Centre for Macroeconomics Survey, The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity March, 2015. http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/importance-elections-uk-economic-activity. Accessed 8 April 2015.
S. WREN-LEWIS, Recognising the success of macroeconomic myths , 29 May 2015
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/recognising-success-of-macroeconomic.html.
Accessed 29 May 2015. See also S. WREN-LEWIS, “The Austerity Con.”, London Review of Books, vol. 37 n° 4, February 2015.
S. IYENGAR and V. OTTATI, “Cognitive Perspective in Political Psychology”, R. S. WYER and T. K. SRULL, Handbook of Social Cognition Vol 11 Applications, 2nd ed. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum 1994 p151; M. PEFFLEY, S. FELDMAN and L. SIGELMAN, “Economic Conditions and Party Competence: Processes of Belief Revision”, Journal of Politics, vol. 49, n° 1, 1987, p. 103. Whilst these studies refer to voters in the USA it highly likely to be equally applicable to their British counterparts.
PEFFLEY et al., op. cit. p. 104.
STUART HALL and A. O’SHEA, “Common-sense neoliberalism,” Soundings 2014 http://www.lwbooks.co.uk/journals/soundings/pdfs/s55_hall_oshea.pdf. Accessed 21 April 2015.
THE GUARDIAN, 8 May 2015.
Ibid.
FISCHER, op. cit. p. 162.
See, e.g. Patrick DIAMOND, Independent 11 May 2015.
C. EMMERSON, P. JOHNSON and R. JOYCE, The Green Budget, Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2015, p. 16.
THE GUARDIAN, 3 May 2015; Guardian 29 December 2014.
THE INDEPENDENT, 3 May 2013.
P. KRUGMAN “The Austerity Delusion”, Guardian 29th April 2015.
R. SKIDELSKY “George Osborne’s cunning plan”, New Statesman 19 April 2015.
KRUGMAN op. Cit.
THE OBSERVER 17 May 2015.
P. KRUGMAN “Economics and Elections”, New York Times, 6 April 2015.
R. R. LAU, R. A. SMITH and S. T. FISKE, “Political Beliefs, Policy Interpretations, and Political Persuasion”, Journal of Politics vol. 53, n° 1, 1991.
THE OBSERVER, 24 May 2015.
NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION, 2013: 2.
A MARR, “British politics is broken – the centre cannot hold,” New Statesman, 20 March 2015.
HALL, op. cit. p. 67.
CRESPI, op. cit. p. 69.
KRUGMAN, 6 April 2015, op. cit.; KRUGMAN, 29 April 2015, op. cit.
CRESPI, op. cit. p69.
D. DEACON and P. GOLDING, Taxation and representation: The media, political communication and the poll tax, Luton: University of Luton Press, 1994, p. 202.
S ALLAN, News Culture, Maidenhead: Open University Press, 1999, p. 68.
M BERRY, “The Today programme and the banking crisis”, Journalism, vol. 14, n° 2, 2012 p. 267.
HALL op. cit. p. 67.
Surveys shared that this proposal was backed by 60% of voters, Observer 26 January 2014. Other policies disliked by business included the mansion tax, the additional levy on banks and restrictions on tax relief on pensions for the very wealthy.
THE OBSERVER 26 January 2014.
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 1 April 2015.
WREN-LEWIS, May 2015, op. cit.
Chuka UMUNNA, Guardian 9 May 2015.
THE OBSERVER, 17 May 2015, The Financial Times 18 May 2015, The Guardian 15 May 2015. See similar comments by Chris Leslie, the new Shadow Chancellor, The Observer 31 May 2015.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/to-regain-trust-labour-must-admit-we-spent-too-much-says-burnham/. Accessed 25 August 2015.
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 31 July 2015.
Indeed both Ed Balls and Chuka Umunna devoted considerable efforts to courting business.
See, e.g. N. SHAXTON, Treasure Islands, London: Vintage Books, 2012.
Lord Mandelson, Observer 10 May 2015.
Colin CROUCH, “The Parabola of Working-Class Politics”, Political Quarterly, vol. 70 n° 1, 1999.
WESTEN, op. cit. , p183.
Guardian 17 May 2015.
Polly TOYNBEE, Guardian 25 March 2015.
LAU et al., p. 670.
STUART HALL, D. MASSEY and M. RUSTIN, “After neoliberalism: analysing the present”, Soundings, vol. 53, Spring, 2013. Jon Cruddas MP articulated this alternative approach shortly after the election: “Labour only wins when it has a unifying, compelling, national popular story to tell… when it speaks in deeper, animated language about national prosperity and collective endeavour” Observer 17 May 2015.
Tristram Hunt, “The Forward March of Labour,” Speech to Demos 20 May 2015. http://www.demos.co.uk/press_releases/the-forward-march-of-labour.
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