1Like most other countries around the world, in recent decades, China has experienced substantial expansion of the so-called shadow education system of private supplementary tutoring. The rapid development and modernisation of China have brought intensified competition, accompanied by rising aspirations and anxieties. As uncertainty proliferates in the social, economic, and educational domains, families and institutions struggle to navigate shifting landscapes. Out-of-school learning, in the form of shadow education, has emerged both as a response to and as a driver of this uncertainty. Parents view tutoring as a strategy to secure their children’s futures, but the rapid expansion of tutoring has created new complexities and prompted government intervention. This article examines how uncertainty has shaped the rise of shadow education, highlighting its paradoxical effects on families and the adaptive strategies employed by tutorial enterprises in a shifting regulatory environment.
2Uncertainty is a defining characteristic of contemporary Chinese society. Over the past four decades, China has undergone rapid economic growth, urbanisation, and social transformation. These changes have raised the stakes for individuals and families navigating an increasingly competitive education system and labour market. Education, long regarded as a pathway to security and success, has become more vital than ever. However, the formal schooling system – constrained by rigid curricula, high teacher–student ratios, and uneven resource distribution – is often perceived as insufficient to meet the challenges posed by this volatile environment (Zhang and Bray, 2021).
3Parents, particularly in urban areas, increasingly view shadow education as a means of reducing uncertainty. Neoliberal forces have reshaped not only the subjectivities of parents but also the perspectives of education practitioners. The logic of performativity has subjected schools to increasing pressure and scrutiny from local governments and parents, who demand higher examination scores and greater enrolment rates in elite schools and universities.
4Private supplementary tutoring has become a tool to help students perform better in high-stakes examinations such as the zhongkao at the end of Grade 9 and gaokao at the end of Grade 12, which determine access to elite schools and universities. Rapid urbanisation – with the urban population rising from 17.9% in 1978 to 59.6% in 2018 – has further intensified competition in cities, driving up demand for tutoring as schools and families seek to reduce uncertainty and secure academic advantages.
5However, the belief that shadow education reduces uncertainty may be misguided. Instead of alleviating anxiety, it often amplifies it. As tutoring becomes normalised, the system remains highly selective and elitist. The resulting ‘arms race’ for higher achievement raises the baseline for academic success, making it harder for students to stand out. This dynamic not only places financial strain on families but also exacerbates stress among students, creating a vicious cycle of uncertainty.
6The growing prevalence of tutoring has also produced backwash effects on schools. Many tutorial institutions established systems for rigorous tracking, providing fast-track students with curricula that far exceed school syllabi. These practices have exacerbated inequalities and widened the range of learning levels within classrooms. Although these practices have greatly diminished since the government crackdown in 2021, they remain widespread. This misalignment has made schoolwork increasingly challenging and uncertain, particularly when tutoring providers leverage advanced educational technologies, including gamification, which fosters the misleading perception that learning must always be enjoyable.
7The contrast between tutors’ entertaining, student-centred approaches and teachers’ authority-focused pedagogy has also undermined the credibility of schoolteachers. Teachers face additional uncertainties when they lack insight into what and how their students have learned in tutoring. Consequently, teachers are forced to navigate the fragmented outcomes of tutoring while addressing the diverse needs of their students. These factors strain teachers’ authority and complicate their role in fostering equitable and effective learning environments.
8The fusion of traditional Chinese norms of parental responsibility with neoliberal ideology has profoundly shaped the behaviours and decisions of Chinese parents (Zhang, 2020). Historically, education has been regarded as the primary pathway to upward mobility and family honour in Chinese society. When these traditional values are amplified and recontextualised by neoliberalism – which prioritises individual responsibility, competition, and self-optimisation – parents feel an intense obligation to maximise their children’s potential in a highly competitive and unpredictable environment. For middle-class families in particular, shadow education functions as a form of insurance against uncertain futures. Parental strategies involve meticulous planning and substantial investment in tutoring to secure competitive advantages. These parents rely on shadow education to prepare their children for academic success, viewing it as an essential pathway to elite schools, economic security, and social distinction.
9Shadow education institutions cater to these anxieties by offering services that go beyond academic preparation. Many provide admissions counselling and training for competitions such as mathematics Olympiads, which enhance students’ portfolios for entry into elite schools and universities. Some enterprises extend beyond traditional tutoring to function as admission machinery for elite schools. In some cases, the tutoring is so challenging that parents have to attend tutorial classes alongside their children in order to support them more effectively at home.
10However, this reliance on tutoring creates a paradox. While parents hope to reduce uncertainty, their collective actions raise the stakes for everyone, intensifying competition and creating new sources of anxiety. Lower-income families, unable to afford high-quality tutoring, are marginalised in a perpetuated cycle of inequality. Even within the middle classes, the financial and emotional toll of shadow education is significant, as families struggle to keep up with perceived norms and expectations.
11Technological advances and capital investment have transformed the tutoring industry. During the 2010s, large companies such as TAL Education and New Oriental pioneered models that combined live instruction with data-driven personalisation. The rapid digitalisation of tutoring services was driven by significant capital investment. The largest tutorial companies received venture capital that allowed them to develop sophisticated algorithms, create star tutors, and offer services at prices affordable to middle- and lower-income families. One key outcome was expanded access to students in rural and other underserved areas. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2020, accelerated this trend, as school closures forced millions of students to rely on online tutoring to maintain continuity in learning.
12By 2020, the kindergarten to Grade 12 online education market in China was worth RMB 88 billion (US$12.8 billion), with a penetration rate of 85% during the pandemic (Zhang and Bray, 2021). Internet platforms not only expanded access to high-quality tutoring but also introduced innovative pedagogical models, such as dual-tutor systems that paired star instructors with local assistants to provide personalised guidance.
13However, the rise of online tutoring raised concerns about its impact on formal schooling. Some companies developed independent curricula that diverged from national standards, undermining the authority of schools. Others aggressively marketed their services by stigmatising academic failure, promoting distorted educational values, and fostering a culture of consumerism that heightened parental anxieties. These developments left schools struggling to compete, as shadow education increasingly overshadowed formal education in both legitimacy and effectiveness.
14Recognising the growing dominance of shadow education and its detrimental effects on student well-being, the government introduced the Double Reduction policy (China, 2021). This sweeping reform aimed to reduce school-assigned homework and curb private tutoring in core academic subjects. The policy sought to alleviate pressure on students, promote whole-person development, and restore the role of formal schooling as the primary provider of education.
15The immediate impact of the policy was dramatic. According to official statistics, 96% of offline tutoring institutions and 87% of online institutions were closed within 15 months (Huai, 2022). The policy prohibited for-profit tutoring in academic subjects and restricted not-for-profit tutoring on weekends and holidays. It also banned companies from raising capital on stock exchanges, effectively driving investment out of the (academic) tutoring sector. To address the unmet demand for private tutoring, schools introduced nationwide After-School Programmes (ASPs) offering childcare, extracurricular activities, and homework support. While these programmes were welcomed by many parents, their quality varied significantly, and they placed additional burdens on schools and teachers. Nevertheless, aggressive advertising by tutoring companies – which had previously saturated public spaces – largely disappeared.
16Despite these measures, deeply entrenched cultural and systemic drivers of educational competition remained difficult to address, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of the policy. While the supply of tutoring decreased, demand persisted. Many families turned to underground tutorial services, which operated informally and outside the scope of government regulation. This shift created new uncertainties for parents, who feared being left behind in an opaque and fragmented marketplace.
17Ironically, the policy also exacerbated some of the very issues it sought to address. By restricting formal tutoring options, it transferred the burden of academic preparation back onto families, particularly middle- and lower-income parents who lacked alternative resources. Still seeking a competitive edge, many parents redirected their investments to non-academic enrichment programmes that could still be legally marketed in science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics (STEAM), humanities, music, sports, and coding. This shift further diversified the shadow education landscape.
18Government regulations in China are both a source of uncertainty and a catalyst for innovation. Chinese entrepreneurs and businesses have demonstrated exceptional creativity in navigating regulatory constraints, ensuring compliance while identifying opportunities to thrive. Although the Double Reduction policy led to the closure of many tutorial companies, particularly smaller ones, the industry displayed remarkable resilience and innovation. Many tutorial companies pivoted towards non-academic areas that remained outside the policy’s scope. Others embraced digital innovation, developing personalised learning tools and platforms powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) to attract a broader client base.
19This shift was especially evident in the country’s two largest tutorial companies. TAL Education introduced programmes in robotics, computer coding, and the creative arts, while New Oriental launched courses in public speaking, leadership, and family education. In parallel, TAL Education targeted international markets by exporting its education technologies, and New Oriental expanded its consulting services to prepare students for international education pathways. Both companies also launched business-to-business (B2B) services, offering educational technologies and staff training to institutions. These services facilitated partnerships in which tutorial providers supported teachers with homework assistance and professional development. While these strategic shifts required extensive restructuring that incurred significant short-term costs, they positioned those companies for long-term gains in an evolving landscape.
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20The evolution of shadow education in China reflects the complex interplay between uncertainty, market forces, and state intervention. While shadow education has introduced innovative practices and expanded access to learning opportunities, it has also exacerbated inequalities and created new forms of stress for families and schools.
21In this context, policymakers face the challenge of balancing regulation and innovation. The nature of these balances in the Chinese ecosystem differs from those in such countries as Egypt, Japan, and India (Zhang, 2023), reflecting distinct political, social, and economic structures. The Double Reduction policy has been critiqued for addressing the symptoms rather than the underlying causes of demand for shadow education. Since the fundamental drivers of competition remain, together with high-stakes examinations and disparities in formal schooling, the tensions facing families in uncertain environments also persist. At the same time, the harnessing of technology to extend opportunities to underserved regions and social groups represents a welcome development, expanding access to opportunities that were previously restricted.
22Analysis of the expansion and diversification of shadow education in China shows how uncertainty may drive families, governments, and markets to reshape education in profound ways. Over the decades, for families – and even for schools, the government, and entrepreneurs – private tutoring has provided solutions to some of the challenges. The ecosystem was abruptly altered in 2021 when a strong government confronted a strong market. Nonetheless, fundamental issues remain unresolved, and future patterns will reflect ongoing shifts in power relations and a complex web of contradictions.